Nick Chubb has been fine in fantasy football. He’s RB14 in PPR and standard leagues. That’s not great, considering he was going in the top 10 picks in most drafts. When you take someone in the first round, you’re not hoping for fine. And if the rest of your team is struggling, fine performances can become a problem.
His biggest issue is that he’s not getting into the end zone. His production is solid, with 23 touches per game for 105 yards. But he has just one touchdown. The problem is that his yardage is only going to get worse in the coming weeks. He’s got a terrible matchup in Week 4, when he plays the Baltimore Ravens, who have the second best defense in rushing yards allowed per game (60.3). In fact, five of the Browns’ next six opponents have the eighth best rushing defense or better. The worst opponent? The Denver Broncos, who aren’t slouches at 16th.
That’s a scary slate of games for a running back, who seems to be regressing from an analytics standpoint. He was a Pro Football Focus darling in 2018 wit h the highest grade among running backs, but hasn’t been grading well in 2019. His offensive grade is 68.4 (34th among running backs). PFF isn’t the only analytics site that’s been hard on Chubb in his second season — Football Outsiders and Next Gen Stats are both down on Chubb.
With that context — a regression and a tough schedule — Chubb would be the kind of player that fantasy owners should sell. But the scenario could be even worse. The Browns will see running back Kareem Hunt return in Week 10 during this season. The best matchup for Chubb, a Week 11 appointment with the tanking Miami Dolphins, will be Hunt’s second game of the season. He’ll have fresh legs and, potentially, a big workload.
So even if Chubb helps a team get to the playoffs, Hunt may complicate Chubb’s value in the most important weeks of the season. Save yourself the headache. Trade Chubb while you can still get a decent return.
