Sunday sees a clash between two division leaders as the Baltimore Ravens lock horns with the Houston Texans at M&T Bank Stadium. The Ravens have won their last five games at sit atop the AFC North with a 7-2 record. The Texans are on a two-game winning streak and are fresh from a bye following their rout of the Jacksonville Jaguars in London two weeks ago.
Here, I’ll offer my thoughts on players to start and players to sit this week. As ever, Lamar Jackson is playing, so if you’ve got him you’re starting him.
SIT – RB, Mark Ingram
Running backs have not enjoyed a great deal of success against the Texans in 2019. A tailback hasn’t scored more than 12.4 PPR points against them since Week 5. They’ve allowed only two running back rushing scores as well.
Ingram continues to operate as the lead back for Baltimore. But it would be inaccurate to describe him as a workhorse. He has gone four games since his last 20 opportunity game (carries + targets), and he’s been held below 50 rushing yards in four of his last five outings. He remains largely dependent on touchdowns with regards to his fantasy output and has finished higher than RB31 just once in games in which he didn’t find the endzone.
The Texans have been slightly more welcoming to running backs in the passing game, with seven running backs catching at least five passes against them this year. However, Ingram has commanded more than two targets in a game only three times this season and has exceeded 22 receiving yards just once since Week 3.
START – TE, Mark Andrews
Mark Andrews had endured two dud weeks prior to Week 10 but was able to bounce back against the Bengals. He corralled six of his eight targets for 53 yards and two touchdowns as he finished as the weekly TE1 for the second time this season. Andrews remains the focal point of the Ravens passing game and has commanded at least 13% of the team targets in every game this season. Indeed, he has 24% or more of the looks in seven games.
The heavy workload makes Andrews attractive even if the matchup doesn’t. The Texans have allowed more than four receptions to a single tight end all season, only three have more than 50 yards and only two have found the end zone. Teams have been trusting their tight ends against the Texans more in recent weeks, however. In the Texans’ last five games, tight ends have seen an average of 8.8 targets. This is the 5th highest in the NFL.
SIT – Ravens WRs
This is becoming a regular theme, isn’t it? But the fact of the matter is that the Ravens are not asking a lot of their wide receivers, and their wide receivers are not delivering a lot either. Marquise Brown is the only Ravens wide receiver with more than four receptions in a game this season, and they came back in Week 2. Brown’s 80 yards against the Bengals last week were the most by a Ravens wide receiver since his 147 in Week 1. While Ravens wide receivers have scored one touchdown since Week 5.
It’s a shame really, as this looks like an ideal environment in which fantasy wide receivers could thrive. The Texans have allowed 11 wide receivers to score 15 or more PPR points against them this season, with four of this group exceeding 20. Three wide receivers have multiple touchdown receptions against them.
If you are seriously in need of help at the receiver spot, then Brown is certainly the best option. But he’s a boom or bust WR3 option for me, especially considering he’s been battling injury all week.
RISKY START – Ravens DEF
This may seem an odd call, especially considering how explosive Deshaun Watson has been this season. Watson has been a QB1 in six of his nine games this season and has exceeded 30 fantasy points in five of those games. But there are reasons why the Ravens defense may be a good selection.
Watson is enjoying better protection this season, after enduring a sack on 10.9% of his dropbacks in 2018. His sack rate has dropped to 7.6% this season. But he has still been sacked multiple times in six games and has taken three or more sacks in five of these games.
14.6% of the Texans offensive drives have ended in a turnover, which is the 6th highest rate in the NFL this season. The Ravens lead the NFL with five defensive touchdowns, and in Marcus Peters, they have a player who can hurt opponents after a takeaway. He leads the NFL in interception return yards with 188 and has a league-leading three touchdowns on interception returns. In four career games against the Texans, Peters has four interceptions and eight passes defended.
If you have other options on your waiver wire, like the Oakland Raiders or New York Jets, you may want to start them over the Ravens. But if you are left with no alternative, then the Ravens may pleasantly surprise you this week.
