After a scintillating victory over the New England Patriots last week, the Baltimore Ravens are going on the road in Week 10 to take on AFC North foes the Cincinnati Bengals. The Ravens lead the division with a 6-2 record, while the Bengals have lost all eight of their games so far this season.
Here, I’ll offer my thoughts on players to start and players to sit this week. After proving me right last week, I must stress that I will not be wasting yours and my time by telling you to start Lamar Jackson. If you have Jackson as your fantasy quarterback for the rest of the season, you don’t have a problem.
START – RB, Mark Ingram
There have been few teams more generous towards running backs than the Bengals in the 2019 season. Over their last five games, they’ve surrendered almost 30 PPR points per game to enemy backfields. Running backs have averaged almost 25 carries per game against them in this span, amassing 114.4 rushing yards whilst scoring 0.8 rushing touchdowns per game. Seven running backs have at least 50 rushing yards against them this season, while two have gone for more than 100.
Lamar Jackson will undoubtedly get his yards against them, but so should Mark Ingram. Ingram had a solid outing against the Patriots (as much to spite me as anything else, I suspect) with his first 100-yard game in his last five outings. He’s only averaged 12.2 PPR points per game since Week 4, down from 22.6 after the first three weeks of the season. But he is still No.6 among all running backs in total touchdowns and has the 11th most rushing yards at his position.
Given the fact that six teams are on a bye this week, you may be desperate for help at the running back spot. With this in mind, Gus Edwards may be a desperation flex option this week. He hasn’t played more than 38.9% of the Ravens snaps since Week 1. But if this game becomes the blowout we expect it to, he may be given an extended run at Ingram’s expense. Edwards has six red-zone touches in his last three games.
SIT – Ravens WRs (Yes, all of them…again)
On paper, the Bengals have not been awful against wide receivers so far this season. This has been largely due to their being able to keep them out of the endzone, with the Bengals 20th in terms of receiving touchdowns allowed this season. Granted, three of them have come in the last two games, but the way to attack the Bengals has generally been on the ground.
Wide receivers have done very little to warrant any excitement for the Ravens since the opening two weeks of the season, to be brutally honest. No wide receiver has more than four receptions in a game since Week 2. Only two have had more than 50 yards since a game since then, and no more than 61. Week 5 was the last time a Ravens wide receiver found the end zone.
START IF YOU HAVE NO OTHER OPTION WHICH YOU PROBABLY DON’T THIS WEEK – TE, Mark Andrews
Week 9 was always going to be a tough matchup for Mark Andrews, especially considering how much of his production comes from a limited number of snaps. But the Ravens took command of the matchup against the Patriots, and this led to Andrews playing a season-low 23 snaps (34%).
The Ravens will look to establish the run and then keep running against the Bengals this week. This should mean Nick Boyle out snapping Andrews, and probably by a lot. Boyle played on 83.6% of the snaps against the Patriots, and while he caught a touchdown pass I cannot in all conscience suggest starting Boyle in fantasy in 2019. He has 17 receptions this season and has been held to 27 yards or less in seven of his eight games.
The matchup isn’t great on paper for Andrews either, as the Bengals have largely avoided being victimized by tight ends in recent weeks. They’ve allowed 34 yards or less to tight ends in four of their last five games, and in that span have not seen a tight end score a touchdown.
Given the fact that the likes of Zach Ertz, Darren Fells, and Noah Fant are on byes this week, and that tight end is as per usual something of a toxic wasteland in fantasy this season, if you have Andrews you are probably going to have to start him. But I really don’t feel good about him in Week 10.
START – Ravens DEF
The Ravens are one of the most frequent users of the blitz in 2019, sending extra rushers on 47.6% of their defensive plays. Despite this additional pressure, it hasn’t really born fruit so far this year. The Ravens have only 14 sacks all season, whilst registering just 11 takeaways.
The Bengals offense offers something by way of a “get right” situation for the Ravens this week, however. 16.3% of the Bengals offensive drives have ended in with turnover this season, while Andy Dalton was also sacked at a 7.9% rate prior to their bye. Of course, Dalton is on the bench now and Ryan Finley will be making his first career start.
Two of the last three quarterbacks to make their NFL debuts against the Ravens were sacked at least three times, with none of the trio completing more than 50% of their passes or amassing more than 177 yards through the air. With the Bengals likely to be playing catchup for long periods of the game, the Baltimore pass rushers will have a chance to pin their ears back and make Finley’s debut one he won’t recall too fondly.
