Most of the attention in fantasy football drafts go to the quarterbacks, running backs and wide receivers. The tight end position in fantasy football does have value, but the landscape has been atrocious in recent seasons.
Because it’s a one-player spot unlike running back and wide receiver, the tight end position is one that I believe doesn’t have to be targeted early. In shallower leagues, the top of the position can be targeted early to get separation form other teams in the league, but after the first five in the rankings, it’s a total crapshoot.
After taking a look ranking the quarterback, running back and wide receiver positions in fantasy football, here are my tiered rankings (half PPR) for the tight ends:
Tier 1: Zeus Tier
1. Travis Kelce, KC (10)
Analysis: This tier is for one tight end and one tight end alone: Zeus. He’s the best tight end in the NFL on the best offense in the NFL with Patrick Mahomes throwing him the football. His 243.1 fantasy points (half PPR) led the position and would have been good as the WR8. He has a massive target share in the Chiefs offense and is worth his ADP in the second round.
Tier 1– Tier 2 – Tier 3 – Tier 4 – Tier 5 – Tier 6 – Tier 7 – Tier 8
Tier 2: Approaching Elite
2. George Kittle, SF (4)
3. Zach Ertz, PHI (10)
Analysis: Both of these guys are high-priced in drafts (third-round ADP), but they could be well worth buying if you want separation in your league at the position. Kittle is slated to be the top target in San Francisco after a historic 2018 season. The lack of weapons around him had a hand in his production, but Kittle is athletic and electric after the catch. He’s pricey, but he could be worth it with another high-yardage season. Ertz is another strong option but a pricey one. His massive target share in the Eagles offense is likely to come down a bit. His 156 targets were well above his career-high, as were his 114 receptions. Ertz is awesome, but it’s difficult to say he’s going to put up those elite numbers again in 2019. I’m likely avoiding him at his ADP, personally.
Tier 1– Tier 2 – Tier 3 – Tier 4 – Tier 5 – Tier 6 – Tier 7 – Tier 8
Tier 3: Mid-round value with high upside
4. Evan Engram, NYG (11)
5. O.J. Howard, TB (7)
Analysis: There is a massive drop off in security in projected production after these two. The ceilings are extremely high for Engram and Howard, both of which should have solid target shares in their respective offenses. I like Engram a little better despite the Giants offensive concerns. He gets open more than any pass catcher in football. His 4.4 average separation led the NFL in 2018, per Next Gen Stats. Meaning, if he’s healthy, he will produce because he gets open so easily. With Odell Beckham Jr. gone and Golden Tate missing the first four games due to suspension, Engram is a strong value in the sixth round. Howard will be featured in the Buccaneers high-flying offense. Even with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, he’s locked and loaded as a top option in Bruce Arians’ offense. He has a chance to crack the top three at the position.
Tier 1– Tier 2 – Tier 3 – Tier 4 – Tier 5 – Tier 6 – Tier 7 – Tier 8
Tier 4: High-risk, high-reward
6. Hunter Henry, LAC (12)
7. Vance McDonald, PIT (7)
8. Jared Cook, NO (9)
Analysis: This trio of tight ends is likely the group to consider in the mid-to-late rounds before punting the position and just going for a deep dive with upside. All three have risk. Henry could be solid in a strong Chargers offense, but there’s a chance he is fourth in the pecking order behind Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and Austin Ekeler. That’s a worst-case scenario but still a possible one. McDonald has a chance to be impactful as the TE1 in a Steelers offense that has 168 vacated targets. However, he has had issues with drops and injuries throughout his career. He’s solid tight end to take a chance on in if he falls to the eighth round. Cook, who was the TE5 in 2018, gets some new scenery in New Orleans. He could wind up being a strong target behind Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara, but how much will that really produce in a run-first offense? That’s the risk.
Tier 1– Tier 2 – Tier 3 – Tier 4 – Tier 5 – Tier 6 – Tier 7 – Tier 8
Tier 5: Too much risk at current ADP
9. David Njoku, CLE (7)
10. Eric Ebron, IND (6)
11. Trey Burton, CHI (6)
Analysis: It’s probably best to avoid these three at their current ADPs. Sure, they could all finish within the top 12, but that’s not going to help you win weeks. With other high-ceiling wide receivers, running backs and sleeper quarterbacks going around their ADPs, it’s simply best to just fade them and wait until the later rounds. Njoku is in a strong Browns offense and while he has a solid connection with Baker Mayfield, the arrival of Odell Beckham Jr. will limit his targets both between the 20s and in the red zone. Ebron will play second fiddle to Jack Doyle and even though the touchdown upside should still be there, it’s highly unlikely he posts 66 receptions and 750 yards again. Burton was brutal in 2018 for fantasy managers. It still isn’t clear how much of a target share he will have in the Bears offense. He’s also dealing with a hernia injury.
Tier 1– Tier 2 – Tier 3 – Tier 4 – Tier 5 – Tier 6 – Tier 7 – Tier 8
Tier 6: Late-round targets
12. Mark Andrews, BAL (8)
13. Jack Doyle, IND (6)
14. Delanie Walker, TEN (11)
15. Jordan Reed, WAS (10)
16. Austin Hooper, ATL (9)
Analysis: These are the players to target in the late rounds of your draft. They have strong value with the ability to well out-produce their ADP. Andrews is intriguing if he can become Lamar Jackson’s top target. There is some risk that it won’t happen, but Andrews has a strong chance to finish the season as a TE1. Reed has had more injuries than we can keep up with throughout his career, but reports out of camp are that he’s shining and healthy. If it’s true, Reed is a massive value. Walker returns after missing basically the entire 2018 season. He could certainly wind up being the most productive pass-catcher on a lowly Titans offense. I have Doyle pretty high, but he will be on the field the most for the Colts. The opportunity there on an expectedly strong offense should allow him to finish in the top 10. Hooper is on a strong Falcons offense, but he’s the fourth target at best behind Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley and Devonta Freeman.
Tier 1– Tier 2 – Tier 3 – Tier 4 – Tier 5 – Tier 6 – Tier 7 – Tier 8
Tier 7: Veterans likely to avoid
17. Greg Olsen, CAR (7)
18. Kyle Rudolph, MIN (12)
Analysis: It’s probably best to just avoid drafting these two, even if their ADP is a value. Olsen has had a productive career as a consistent fantasy asset, but those days are likely behind him. His foot injury is a major concern and could limit him even more. It’s also likely the Panthers focus on their younger pass catchers more than Olsen. Rudolph is a solid tight end but in a run-first offense, he won’t be consistent or productive enough to truly succeed as a TE1.
Tier 1– Tier 2 – Tier 3 – Tier 4 – Tier 5 – Tier 6 – Tier 7 – Tier 8
Tier 8: What are we even talking about?
18. Tyler Eifert, CIN (9)
19. T.J. Hockenson, DET (5)
20. Noah Fant, DEN (10)
21. Jimmy Graham, GB (11)
22. Dallas Goedert, PHI (10)
23. Chris Herndon IV, NYJ (4)
Analysis: On a bad offense, Eifert is hurt far too often to trust. Two rookie tight ends in Hockenson and Fant should always be avoided in fantasy football. Graham is banged up all the time now. Goedert is intriguing in dynasty but likely won’t see enough volume to be consistent in re-draft, especially with Zach Ertz there. Herndon is suspended for the first four game but could be an intriguing sleeper.
Tier 1– Tier 2 – Tier 3 – Tier 4 – Tier 5 – Tier 6 – Tier 7 – Tier 8
