The value of the running back position in fantasy football isn’t like any other spot on the roster. With only a limited number of starters and significant contributors to go around, the running back position is most important when constructing a fantasy roster.
While the vitality of the running back spot is known, it is also known that it is the position that can crush fantasy hopes and dreams in an instant if a player busts or sees a significant injury. Just ask those who drafted Le’Veon Bell first overall in their drafts in 2018.
My philosophy with drafting running backs is to grab them as early as possible without reaching too much. That doesn’t mean wide receivers aren’t valuable or that the zero-RB approach doesn’t work. It can. But I don’t feel comfortable most of the time if I don’t come out of the first two rounds with at least one solidified top-12 running back.
I posted my tiered quarterback rankings first, and now we take a look at ranking running backs (half PPR) in fantasy football for the 2019 season:
Tier 1: Early Round 1
1. Saquon Barkley – NYG (11)
2. Christian McCaffrey – CAR (7)
3. Ezekiel Elliott – DAL (8)
4. Alvin Kamara – NO (9)
Analysis: The top tier is made up of four players that all have valid arguments to be selected with the No. 1 overall pick in any draft format. Despite the concerns on offense, Barkley is entrenched as my favorite to finish as RB1. He’s the most worthy of the top pick while doing it all in the Giants offense. McCaffrey is another do-it-all back that simply doesn’t come off the field. Taking him No. 1 is completely fine. I believe Zeke will get a contract done before the regular season. I may adjust if he’s still not there near the start of the season. Kamara is incredible as the focal point of an elite offense behind the league’s best offensive line, but his lack of elite volume is what puts him at the bottom of the tier.
Tier 1 – Tier 2 – Tier 3 – Tier 4 – Tier 5 – Tier 6 – Tier 7 – Tier 8
Tier 2: Mid/Late Round 1
5. David Johnson – ARI (12)
6. Todd Gurley – LAR (9)
7. Nick Chubb – CLE (7)
8. James Conner – PIT (7)
Analysis: This group is what you’ll likely see in the middle-to-late portion of Round 1. They all have immense upside with some slight question marks. Johnson is a favorite to bounce back as a top-five option with an offense that should see positive regression in several areas. I’ll take him anywhere after the fifth pick. Gurley has huge question marks about the knee, but if the Rams dial back his touches and he’s still efficient, his ADP could be a value. The knee does bring plenty of concern, though I’m feeling more comfortable with him in re-draft as the days go by. Chubb is now the man in Cleveland and even though Kareem Hunt comes back Week 10, it’s likely the former solidifies himself as an RB1 every week. Conner’s concerns come more with the offense without Antonio Brown, but he should be a volume machine while also seeing passing-game work. He’s a strong late first-round target.
Tier 1 – Tier 2 – Tier 3 – Tier 4 – Tier 5 – Tier 6 – Tier 7 – Tier 8
Tier 3: Round 2
9. Le’Veon Bell – NYJ (4)
10. Dalvin Cook – MIN (12)
11. Kerryon Johnson – DET (5)
12. Joe Mixon – CIN (9)
13. Damien Williams – KC (12)
Analysis: Some have Bell a little higher but with a downgraded offense and offensive line, the volume might not be enough for first-round value. We’ve also seen Adam Gase do some weird things with his backfield rotation. Cook has a chance to really shine with a favorable situation, but his injury concerns are real. Taking a chance on him in the second round will pay off if he’s healthy. Johnson is expected to get strong volume even with C.J. Anderson there. If he gets receiving work now that Theo Riddick is gone, he could be a strong value and a likely RB1. Mixon is a very talented back but one that finds himself on a suspect offense. His talent and workload should be there, but the offense might not give him the opportunities necessary to be a consistent RB1. Williams should be higher on this list, but he’s already battled a hamstring injury and the talk of a committee being used by Andy Reid is a concern. If neither of those comes true, he’s likely a top-10 back. It’s a matter of whether you want to buy the risk or not.
Tier 1 – Tier 2 – Tier 3 – Tier 4 – Tier 5 – Tier 6 – Tier 7 – Tier 8
Tier 4: Round 3
14. Devonta Freeman – ATL (9)
15. Marlon Mack – IND (6)
16. Josh Jacobs – OAK (6)
17. Melvin Gordon – LAC (12)
18. Chris Carson – SEA (11)
19. Aaron Jones – GB (11)
20. Leonard Fournette – JAX (10)
Analysis: Most of these players will lead their backfields, but there are concerns to be aware of. Freeman, if healthy, will see a wonderful workload on a potent offense. His biggest question is injuries. If healthy, he’s an RB1. Mack’s upside is high but limited due to his lack of work as a receiver. Still, he has a chance to break out fully in 2019 with an elite offense that wants to run the ball. Jacobs has never been a workhorse back, but he has the backfield all to himself in Oakland along with a first-round price tag. Gordon’s holdout situation is serious and will continue to move him down as the weeks go by. If he gets a new deal, he’s a top-five back. Carson is a steal at his current ADP and has a strong chance of leading a backfield that could lead the NFL in rushing. Jones is uber-talented but there’s a chance new head coach Matt LaFleur adds Jamaal Williams to the mix more than we’d like. He also will see limited passing work as the Packers rarely target the running back position. Fournette has the volume to be an RB1, but he’s been extremely inefficient while battling injuries constantly. Plus, it isn’t a given that Nick Foles elevates the offense all that much.
Tier 1 – Tier 2 – Tier 3 – Tier 4 – Tier 5 – Tier 6 – Tier 7 – Tier 8
Tier 5: Rounds 4–6
21. Sony Michel – NE (10)
22. Derrick Henry – TEN (11)
23. David Montgomery – CHI (6)
24. Phillip Lindsay – DEN (10)
25. Tevin Coleman – SF (4)
26. Kenyan Drake – MIA (5)
27. Miles Sanders – PHI (10)
28. Mark Ingram – BAL (8)
29. Tarik Cohen – CHI (6)
30. Lamar Miller – HOU (10)
31. James White – NE (10)
Analysis: Michel, Henry and Montgomery are all backs to be considered in the fourth round. All three should be leading their respective backfields with limited passing game work. Michel could see an uptick in receiving, but it’s unlikely with White there. If he does, he can be an RB1, but you also have to worry about the knee. Henry will be the starter, but he’s been dealing with a calf injury and isn’t practicing. The Titans offense also worries me. Montgomery has some high upside—it’s all a matter of how much work he gets.
Lindsay should still be leading the rushing attack for Denver, but it’s likely to be more of a 50/50 share with Royce Freeman. Coleman is in a perfect situation and is currently a value at his ADP. He will rise, but the likely starter for Kyle Shanahan’s offense will have strong production. Drake and Sanders are really talented but will likely be in a rotation to begin the season. Sanders is especially intriguing once he fully takes over the backfield.
Ingram is the starter in Baltimore, but an RBBC is likely, and there are so many able bodies in the room. Cohen is still somewhat of a value, but it’s hard to see him reprise those efficiency totals as a receiver again. Still, he’s a big part of Matt Nagy’s offense. Miller is a solid RB2, but his upside is limited with no passing game work. White is another back that was uber-efficient in 2018, but with Michel getting most of the work and in a crowded backfield, likely he won’t put up the same totals.
Tier 1 – Tier 2 – Tier 3 – Tier 4 – Tier 5 – Tier 6 – Tier 7 – Tier 8
Tier 6: Rounds 7–9
32. Rashaad Penny – SEA (11)
33. Royce Freeman – DEN (10)
34. Austin Ekeler – LAC (12)
35. Latavius Murray – NO (9)
36. Matt Brieda – SF (4)
37. Peyton Barber – TB (7)
38. Adrian Peterson – WAS (10)
39. Kalen Ballage – MIA (5)
40. LeSean McCoy – BUF (6)
41. Darrell Henderson – LAR (9)
42. Derrius Guice – WAS (10)
Analysis: This group is mostly made up of those in a timeshare and likely on a bad offense. Penny is intriguing given the Seahawks desire to run the ball, but he’s firmly behind Chris Carson. He’s still a solid value in these rounds as a FLEX option with upside if his role grows. Freeman should see an uptick in usage in a run-first offense, and his value is better than Lindsay’s. Should the latter go down, Freeman turns into a borderline RB1. Ekeler is interesting with the Melvin Gordon hold out, but beware his ADP is rising. I love Breida’s chances to be a high-value asset with Jerrick McKinnon slated to start the season on IR. Even with a timeshare, he will be effective in Kyle Shanahan’s offense.
Barber could wind up losing the job in Tampa to Ronald Jones but if he doesn’t, 200 carries in a Bruce Arians offense is rare in the 10th round. Peterson is an arguable steal this late as he’s likely to begin the season as the starter. Ballage is the value in Miami and if there really is a 50/50 timeshare with Kenyan Drake, he’s an intriguing sleeper.
McCoy appears to be the starter in Buffalo for now, but it’s a mess of a committee. I’m simply staying away. Henderson likely only has value if Todd Gurley goes down and even then it could be the Malcolm Brown show. Guice is said to be the guy in Washington’s backfield, but would that be true if they signed A.P. and drafted Bryce Love in the fourth?
Tier 1 – Tier 2 – Tier 3 – Tier 4 – Tier 5 – Tier 6 – Tier 7 – Tier 8
Tier 7: Rounds 10-12
43. Justin Jackson – LAC (12)
44. Nyheim Hines – IND (6)
45. Duke Johnson – HOU (10)
46. Chris Thompson – WAS (10)
47. Dion Lewis – TEN (11)
48. Jordan Howard – PHI (10)
49. Kareem Hunt – CLE (7)
50. Damien Harris – NE (10)
51. Devin Singletary – BUF (6)
52. Jamaal Williams – GB (11)
53. Ronald Jones – TB (7)
Analysis: Most of these running backs are handcuffs and have extremely limited upside. There are a few to note though. Jackson is rising quickly and should be monitored in drafts. If he’s there in the double-digit rounds while you’re drafting and Melvin Gordon hasn’t signed yet, grab him immediately. I’d probably go as high as a ninth if we know Gordon won’t be back soon. Hines is the pass-catcher in Indy, but it’s tough to expect 63 receptions again. If Parris Campbell is out to begin the season, though, his stock bumps up a little bit. Hunt won’t return until Week 10 due to suspension, and if Nick Chubb gets off to a hot start, it likely won’t matter as the former could see minimal work. Singletary is a dart throw in hopes he takes over the backfield from LeSean McCoy and Frank Gore, but its a mess and his value is only real in dynasty.
Tier 1 – Tier 2 – Tier 3 – Tier 4 – Tier 5 – Tier 6 – Tier 7 – Tier 8
Tier 8: Rounds 13+
54. Alexander Mattison – MIN (12)
55. Giovani Bernard – CIN (9)
56. Darwin Thompson – KC (10)
57. Ito Smith – ATL (9)
58. C.J. Anderson – DET (5)
59. Malcolm Brown – LAR (9)
60. Jalen Richard – OAK (6)
61. Frank Gore – BUF (6)
62. Gus Edwards – BAL (8)
63. Tony Pollard – DAL (8)
64. Carlos Hyde – KC (10)
65. Mike Davis – CHI (6)
Analysis: These are all backups that will go undrafted in standard leagues. Their value only rises with injuries to the starters. Anderson should be monitored in case he truly does hold the LeGarrette Blount role in Detroit. Even then, he’s fine going undrafted. Brown is interesting because all the rage is with rookie Darrell Henderson, but the Rams love Brown and it could certainly wind up being him to take over if Gurley goes down. Edwards was an RB1 when Lamar Jackson took over, which means he could see more work than expected. Pollard appears to be the primary backup to Ezekiel Elliott and while I don’t expect a hold out to go into the season, Pollard should be monitored just in case it does.
Tier 1 – Tier 2 – Tier 3 – Tier 4 – Tier 5 – Tier 6 – Tier 7 – Tier 8
