I’ve preached how deep the wide receiver class is in fantasy football this year. To further prove that theory, I wanted to dive deeper into the pool.
Looking at half-PPR ADPs, here are a few WRs in the 101-150 range that should provide you a great return on your (minimal) investment.
1. Oakland Raiders WR Jordy Nelson (ADP 103)
Care to guess who the best wide receiver was in half-PPR formats just two years ago?
It’s pretty obvious, since we’re in the Jordy Nelson section, but it’s always fun to start with a question. Engage the audience!
Ok, back to football.
The idea that Jordy has lost a step simply isn’t true.
According to NFL NextGen speed and distance traveled data, Nelson’s speed from last year vs. his speed from his No. 1 overall season in 2016 is just about the same. So why did his production drop upwards of 60%? What changed?
Oh nothing, other than his quarterback going from one of the greatest to ever play…to Brett Hundley.
No, Aaron Rodgers isn’t following Jordy to Oakland, but with Derek Carr under center for Gruden’s bunch, if Nelson fails this year it won’t be because of quarterback problems. Based on what we’re seeing and what we’re hearing out of Raiders camp, it doesn’t look like he’s going to fail this year.
Find me a better receiver on the sideline.
With Michael Crabtree and his 101 targets moving to Baltimore, there are a ton of red zone looks available in Oakland. Nelson is the best route runner they have. There’s nobody better on the sidelines. For those of you asking about Amari Cooper, check out these numbers.
#Raiders Derek Carr’s splits (2015-17) when targeting Amari Cooper vs. everyone else are interesting to say the least: pic.twitter.com/RFT3LLPljs
— Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) August 1, 2018
If that didn’t do it for you, here’s Carr and Gruden lauding praise on their new offensive weapon, courtesy of the EastBayTimes:
“The thing that you hear about that he can’t run anymore,” quarterback Derek Carr said, “that’s false.”
“I can tell you, he’s one of the fastest skill guys that we have still. He can run. You see that by his route running. If he can win on underneath routes, that means DBs are scared about what he can do over the top. He’s still Jordy Nelson, that’s for sure.”
[...]
“He’s wired in,” Raiders’ head coach Jon Gruden said. “You can see why he was a security blanket for Rodgers all those years. He can still run. He’s proven to us he can still run. We can line him up anywhere we want and he can run any route we draw up. We’re really encouraged by him.”
Could this be training camp fluff and Nelson disappears when the regular season starts?
Sure.
Could Nelson also be revitalized by having a legitimate quarterback and be motivated to prove Green Bay wrong and return to WR1-status?
You better believe it. And at this price, it’s hard to beat.
2. Philadelphia Eagles WR Nelson Agholor (ADP 120)
Following two disappointing years to start his career, Agholor turned things around in a big way last season, finishing as Pro Football Focus’ ninth-best WR. The main reason for this turnaround, as pointed out by PFF’s Scott Barrett, was his return to the slot.
Agholor ran 52.3 percent of his routes from the slot in his final year of college (2014) and 86 percent last year, but just 20.5 percent during his first two years in the league.
He also seemed to get better and more involved in the offense as the season went along. After getting six or more targets just twice in the Eagles’ first 10 games (47 total targets,) Agholor averaged eight (48 total) over the final six games, not to mention a dominant Super Bowl where he went off for nine catches for 84 yards.
Philly’s offense isn’t slowing down any time soon and the former first-round pick still has room to grow. NJ.com’s Eliot Shorr-Parks highlighted Agholor’s performance from training camp a few weeks ago:
Agholor has been close to unstoppable during the team drills at training camp. The fourth-year receiver has caught 11 of the 12 passes thrown his way. His damage has been done all over the field. He has worked the middle of the field. He has gotten behind the Eagles’ defense. He has turned short catches into long gain.
It is clear that the time Agholor spent with Hall of Fame receiver Randy Moss this offseason paid off. He has made a few catches he certainly wouldn’t have made two years ago and likely wouldn’t have even made last season. His hands appear to be much stronger as he has snatched a few passes out of the air and been able to hold on despite tight coverage.
Agholor should be the Eagles’ top targeted receiver on offense this season.
This is just one beat reporters take, but even if he’s only the top receiver in half his games, that’s a nice high-floor, high-ceiling player. The eight touchdowns may be hard to repeat, but as a focal point in one of the NFL’s best offenses, he’s a tremendous value this late in the draft.
3. Miami Dolphins WR Kenny Stills (ADP 132)
Jarvis Landry’s 160 targets were shipped to Cleveland. DeVante Parker has struggled to the point of the Miami Herald speculating he may be dealt.
Albert Wilson and Danny Amendola were brought in, so Stills doesn’t just eat up all those targets by himself, but he’s the only vertical threat of the bunch and one of the best in the NFL at that. He’s also good in the slot, where he finished second in the league with six TDs from there last season.
For those of you saying, Parker is more talented, you’re not totally wrong but we’ve yet to see it where it matters. On the field.
Kenny Stills has been significantly better than DeVante Parker in his last two years in Miami. (Stills only caught 27 balls in 2015).
2016: 101.0 QB Rating When Targeted (Stills) vs. 87.7 (Parker)
2017: 84.1 (Stills) vs. 58.7 (Parker)
— Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) July 30, 2018
Sills has an eerily similar profile to a Lions receiver that has an ADP roughly 100 picks earlier than him.
The haters will say it’s photoshopped… pic.twitter.com/35FpdYCx1i
— Rich Hribar (@LordReebs) August 9, 2018
As Rich Hribar points out in his thread, it’s not that Stills should be drafted that early or that Stills is a better player than Jones.
Both aren’t true.
What we’re focusing on, is the value in drafting someone like Stills, who is so similar to Jones in a lot of ways, just available 10 rounds later. Winning your draft is about finding value, and this late in the draft, Stills is a tremendous value.
It looks like Stills injured his ankle in Miami’s preseason opener, so you’ll have to monitor his progress as we inch toward draft season, but as things currently stand it doesn’t sound too serious.
