Earlier this week I wrote about sleeper running backs to target with an ADP in the top-100 of FantasyPros’ consensus half-PPR rankings.
Today, I’m going to dive into some deeper sleepers that you will be able to wait on but could still have a nice upside in Week 1.
1. Green Bay Packers RBs Jamaal Williams (ADP 103, RB 39) and Aaron Jones (ADP 122, RB 43)
Jamaal Williams and Aaron Jones aren’t spectacular talents, but in fantasy football it’s not always about talent. It’s about opportunity, and both have a tremendous opportunity on their hands.
Williams kept himself healthy and available last season, receiving 20.4 touches per game over the final eight weeks, finishing as the eighth-best RB in PPR formats over that stretch. He didn’t fumble and was Green Bay’s top pass-blocking running back, which becomes even more important with Rodgers back under center. He gets a ton of slack for his poor 3.6 YPC average last year, but he still finished 14th among 47 qualified running backs in Football Outsiders’ Success Rate, so he wasn’t all bad. He’s also a strong receiver, averaging more than 3+ catches a game over his final nine games, for over 250 yards and two touchdowns.
Aaron Jones was the more explosive opposite.
His 5.53 YPC dwarfs Williams’ 3.6, but he battled injuries and was unable to stay on the field. He was a terrible receiver, a poor blocker and will be serving a two-game suspension to start the season after being caught operating a vehicle with marijuana in his system. However, Jones has received unequivocal support from Rodgers, which may matter more than anything else unless Williams has a blistering start while Jones is suspended.
At the start of camp, Williams has gotten the bulk of the work and was listed as the Packers’ number one running back on their initial depth chart. Then again, ESPN’s Matthew Berry believes Jones is the guy to own.
Back-and-forth we go.
We haven’t even talked about Ty Montgomery, who will be handling the passing downs and was in the middle of a breakout himself early last season before injuries shut him down.
There isn’t a clear-cut answer in this backfield right now, which would be terrible news during the season.
Now though? Before the draft? You should be using this to your advantage.
One of these guys will emerge as the starter and if you have to wait a few weeks early on to let Packers figure out their situation, so be it. You’re investing a small price (or two) in a system that could bring you a huge return late in your draft.
These are the types of bets that if they hit, can win you your league.
I don’t know about you, but I like those types of bets.
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers RB Peyton Barber (ADP 174, RB 57)
A potential starting running back, available with the 174th-pick in your draft.
I’d call that a nice value.
At some point this season, this is going to be Ronald Jones’ backfield. That’s what happens when a team invests the 38th overall pick in the NFL Draft in a running back. Especially one as talented as Jones.
However, we’re not quite there yet. One of the most important transitions from college to the NFL is pass protection and Jones is struggling early on in camp.
This was one of my biggest concerns about Ronald Jones coming out. Among the 2018 rookie RBs, Jones finished last in both receiving yards gained per route (1.0) and pass block execution (55%) — per Yards Created. https://t.co/RskjeZPdk7
— Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) August 9, 2018
His hands aren’t quite there yet either. Despite his elite athleticism, this is a guy that caught just 32 passes in 40 college games. He wasn’t a good pass blocker for USC in college. At 5’11”, he’s relatively small for an NFL feature back.
(Please don’t tell him I said that.)
All of this is to say, don’t give up on Peyton Barber so quickly.
Here’s a take from Buccaneers Insider, Roy Cummings.
#Bucs RB Peyton Barber is running with authority. Looks like he wants to make sure he gets the bulk of the carries. Right now, he’s earned them
— Roy Cummings (@RCummingsFHCN) July 29, 2018
Last year, Barber finished third among 47 running backs on Football Outsiders’ Success Rate. In each of the Bucs’ final five games, Barber had 12+ carries and averaged four+ YPC in all but one, catching 12 balls along the way. Perhaps more importantly, he led the team in red zone carries (21), carries inside the 10-yard line (13) and carries inside the five (8), per Rotoworld’s Evan Silva. As fast and athletic as Jones is, Barber has 20 pounds on him and could keep vulturing touchdowns throughout the season.
With Jameis Winston suspended for the first three games of the season, the Bucs are likely going to rely heavily on their ground game. As Ronald Jones struggles with pass protection, Barber should see plenty of action early and often, with a potential start or two thrown in there, which is a really nice flex play early in the season.
Especially this late in the draft.
3. Miami Dolphins RB Frank Gore (ADP 177. RB 58)
Father time just doesn’t apply to this likely Hall of Famer.
In his 13th season, his 12th in a row with over 200 carries, Gore finished as a RB2 in half-PPR formats, eclipsing 1,000 total yards for the 12th year in a row. Look what he did to Eric Weddle, 5-time Pro Bowl safety Eric Weddle, in Week 16 last year.
Hi Kenyan Drake enthusiasts. Here is a video of Frank Gore juking Eric Weddle in the open field in week 16 of last season. That is all. pic.twitter.com/7YW7qT5hU0
— Ben Cummins (@BenCumminsFF) July 31, 2018
Don’t get me wrong, I love Kenyan Drake, but he’s yet to prove he can handle the full-load over a 16-game season.
In Week 13 last year, Gore carried the ball 36 times! Drake carried the ball 20+ times just twice. He’s technically not locked in to be the starter with Gore, who finished a respectable 23rd among 47 qualified running backs in Football Outsiders’ Success Rate, lurking and getting praise throughout Miami’s camp.
Head Coach Adam Gase even said his Gore’s age is “irrelevant.”
“It’s been 10 years since we were together,” Gase said. “I mean it seems like forever. The guy looks exactly the same.”
Again, I love Drake. His 4.96 YPC average over the last two seasons is second best in the NFL among running backs with 150-plus attempts.
I just happen to love value more.
Considering all you have to invest to get a potential Week 1 starter is a draft pick in the final few rounds, it’s pure upside…even for a 35-year-old.
