After ranking and making projections for virtually every offensive skill player in the NFL, it’s time focus in on the Chiefs offensive players.
The Chiefs have one of the most exciting groups of skill-position players in the league. For Chiefs fans, who are also fans of fantasy football, this should help to strip away some of your Chiefs-fan bias when it comes to your fantasy football drafts. It’ll help you see how these players are being valued in the larger fantasy football universe. It’s fun to draft players on the team you root for, but you don’t want to be the guy who takes players on his favorite team several rounds too early.
For those who are merely interested in how Chiefs players are projected to perform this year, in order to get (even more) pumped for the upcoming season, I hope this look into numbers and projections is enjoyable.
Let’s walk through the various position groups and look at two data points on each player: their current ADP (average draft position) in fantasy drafts and my statistical projection for them during the upcoming season. Based on that data, we will consider whether each Chiefs player is a smart target for fantasy players in their upcoming drafts.
Quarterback
Patrick mahomes
ADP: 1.12 (12th overall pick)
My projection: 590 attempts, 401 completions (68%), 4,700 passing yards, 35 touchdowns, 11 interceptions, 204 rushing yards, two rushing touchdowns
Smart target: Patrick Mahomes is always a smart target, but it’s all about cost. He is, in my opinion, the most talented quarterback in the league, but fantasy football players have to consider what other player they could get with their picks. Specifically, Mahomes will be in play during the first two rounds of their drafts. Players being drafted around Mahomes include David Johnson, Joe Mixon, and Travis Kelce. Since it is simply harder to find a great running back or tight end in fantasy football, the smarter play would be to gobble up those positions and let someone else take Mahomes.
I know, it’s hard advice, given how long fans have waited for the Chiefs to have a franchise quarterback. Remember, this is about building a winning fantasy football team. Drafting Mahomes might be worth it for you, though, considering he finished 70 fantasy point out in front of all other quarterbacks in most fantasy football formats.
Continue…
Running backs
damien williams
ADP: 3.8 (32nd overall pick)
My projection: 208 carries, 998 yards, 85 targets, 72 receptions, 576 receiving yards, 14 total touchdowns
Smart target: All of my projections are based on players appearing in all 16 games, unless otherwise noted. It’s extremely unlikely that happens as injuries are a common occurrence in the NFL.
If Williams posts these kind of numbers, he will finish as a top-5 running back. That makes him an extremely smart target in the third round where he is currently being drafted, and even a smart target in the second round if you want to make sure to get him. His mix of rushing and receiving usage in a high-powered offense makes him a good player to own in fantasy football.
carlos hyde
ADP: 13.11 (155th overall pick)
My projection: 58 carries, 247 yards, 18 targets, 12 receptions, 78 receiving yards, two total touchdowns
Smart target: The only reason I might suggest you take Hyde in drafts is if you believe Williams will not stand up to the rigors of a full NFL season. And if Williams is injured, you believe that Hyde will be pushed into a starting role over someone like Darwin Thompson. Another potential reason might be that you drafted Williams early and want some security in case he does get hurt. Otherwise, grab other players late in your draft who have more upside.
darwin thompson
ADP: 17.4 (196th overall pick)
My projection:55 carries, 286 yards, 27 targets, 21 receptions, 189 yards, four total touchdowns
Smart target: I believe Thompson will become a starter for the Kansas City Chiefs eventually. Williams is likely to start this year and next, but Coach Reid should start incorporating Thompson into the offense by mid-year, and give him increasing work as the season goes on.
As you can see from my projections, Thompson is likely to make more of an impact on the field than Hyde, as he has dynamic quickness and is hard to bring down. He is an intriguing target late in drafts, and worth a late-round flier.
Continue…
Wide receivers
Tyreek hill
ADP: 4.3 (39th overall)
My projection: 98 targets, 60 catches, 1006 yards, 14 rushes, 88 yards, nine total touchdowns
Smart target: My projections are based off of Hill playing 12 games. Although it now sounds like he may not be suspended for that many games, I’ll stick with my projection for the time being. These stats would give him about 220 points in a PPR (point-per-reception) league, which would have been good enough last season to finish as the 16th best receiver.
For reference, Brandin Cooks finished at that spot last season. That means the fourth round is about right for Hill. However, the impact he would make on your fantasy team for those 12 weeks he plays would be more impactful than a different player in the fourth round. If you can build depth around him to cover for him being out, he is an excellent target at his discounted cost.
sammy watkins
ADP: 6.3 (63rd overall)
My projection: 104 targets, 80 catches, 1040 yards, five rushes, 45 yards, seven total touchdowns
Smart target: Watkins got a small bump in my projections because of my assumption that Hill would be out for four games. The numbers also look huge because they assume he stays healthy for the entire season, something he has never done. If it happens, though, Watkins will be one of the best fantasy football selections in the league.
If these projections are correct, he would finish above Hill in points, and with that number of points would have been the 12th-best receiver in the league last year. Since he is not being drafted until the sixth round, that is excellent value. Even if Hill is not suspended, Watkins will return value from his sixth round draft spot so long as he is able to stay healthy.
demarcus robinson
ADP: 21.9 (249th overall)
My projection: 40 targets, 31 receptions, 403 yards, four touchdowns
Smart target: Since most leagues only run for 16-20 rounds, Robinson is typically not being drafted. He is free. At that price, he is worth a gamble in the very late rounds of your drafts.
If he makes a leap this year and is on the field for 50-60 percent of snaps, instead of the 40 percent of snaps he saw last year, he could put up much bigger numbers than I am projecting. If Hill is out for some period of time and Robinson steps up, he could end up being a league-winning choice.
One thing to keep in mind is that Byron Pringle may push Robinson for playing time. In my interview with Matt Waldman, Waldman stated that he believes Pringle is the superior talent and will overtake Robinson at some point this season. If this happens, what I just said about Robinson could easily be applied to Pringle.
mecole hardman
ADP: 12.6 (138th overall)
My projection: 38 targets, 27 receptions, 459 yards, eight rushes, 94 yards, four total touchdowns
Smart target: At this price Hardman is not a smart target in your fantasy drafts. Many are choosing him as a handcuff for Tyreek Hill – as the insurance policy in case Hill is suspended. But I doubt Hardman would be the major beneficiary if Hill is out. He is fast, but would not be able to duplicate what Hill does on the field as a rookie.
Hill has more than speed; he knows the offense, is a great route runner, and does everything well. I see Hardman as a gadget player this season, and think he will be used in a similar way to how Reid used DeAnthony Thomas. Hardman is an intriguing target in dynasty leagues, but in a redraft (one-year) league, he should be avoided.
Continue…
Tight Ends
travis kelce
ADP: 2.3 (15th overall)
My projection: 160 targets, 109 receptions, 1417 yards, 10 touchdowns
Smart target: Kelce is a smart target late in the first round of fantasy drafts, and anywhere in the second round. It is a rich price, but he is worth it and you should draft him with confidence. The reason I say Kelce is worth a first or second-round pick, while I would not suggest the same for Mahomes is due to position scarcity.
Mahomes was the top finisher at quarterback, but the gap in points per game is not as large as it is at tight end. Kelce is putting up stats that no tight end before him ever has. So the drop-off from Kelce to the 8th-best tight end, for example, is extreme. Last season Kelce scored 285 points in PPR leagues, while the 8th-best tight end (Trey Burton) scored 140. Because of that gap, Kelce won fantasy owners many titles last year, and he will do it again.
It is difficult to say who will win the back up tight end role at this point, but I predict either Blake Bell or Neal Sterling. Neither is worth a pick, as I would project the back up tight end for only 20 targets and 14 receptions.
Go back…
.png?w=600)
