The investigation involving Tyreek Hill played out during the time of year that NFL and fantasy football analysts are busy prognosticating about what is most likely to unfold during the coming season. The uncertainty surrounding Hill made it quite difficult to project what would happen for the 2019 Chiefs.
After all, Hill could have been cut in a manner similar to Kareem Hunt, and many believed that was the likeliest result after the first portion of the recording was leaked. No suspension and total reinstatement seemed extremely unlikely just a few weeks ago, but that was obviously the other end of the spectrum of possible outcomes.
Most analysts, myself included, took the middle ground and projected Hill to be suspended for somewhere between two and eight games. I projected him to play 12 games, and spread the stats from the four games he would have missed around to the various skill-position players on the offense.
However, with Hill now likely to play in all 16 games, the projections have been updated, and I wanted to share some numbers with you — both about how I see Hill performing this season and how his presence will affect the other skill-position players.
Tyreek Hill Projections
We should assume Hill will perform similarly to last season. Who is on the field with him will be a bit different, since Chris Conley was second on the team with 802 offensive snaps and has moved on. But regardless of who is on the field around Hill, he is clearly their No. 1 wide receiver and should receive a heavy dose or snaps and targets.
Last season, Hill received 137 targets, which was 23.6 percent of the total team targets. I am projecting Watkins to finally play a full season, which will bump his targets up. Hill will stay at 24 percent of targets. I bumped Mahomes up to 590 passes (from 580) in my 2019 projection, since I think the Chiefs will lean just a bit less on the run this year without Kareem Hunt. Hill would see an increase from 137 targets to 142 targets in that scenario.
I expect Hill will improve his catch rate and it will look like his career average, which is 67 percent. It’s a solid number when considering how often he is targeted on deep passes. That would net him 95 catches on the season. If he maintains his 17 yards-per-catch average, Hill would finished the season with a total of 1,615 yards. Let’s project him to again catch 12 touchdowns, as that seems firmly within his range of possible outcomes.
That would give him a total receiving line of: 95 catches on 142 targets, 1,615 yards, and 12 touchdowns. The fact that he typically also rushes around 20 times for about 10 yards per rush is just gravy on top. From a fantasy football perspective, these projected numbers are ridiculous. He would again be within the top three wide receivers in the league for fantasy football with those statistics, and I see no reason why he cannot repeat that feat.
Personally, I have him as the No. 2 receiver on my board, behind only DeAndre Hopkins. That means he is worthy to be drafted in the first round of fantasy drafts, and if my first-round pick is in the later part of round 1, I am certainly willing to take Hill there.
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Hill’s affect on other skill-position players
For the most part, Hill playing 16 games instead of only 12 does not impact my projections of the other Chiefs players by much. Below are a few notes on players who may be affected slightly.
damien williams
The impact won’t be huge, but having Hill on the field for every game will help Williams. It takes away the option for defenses to stack the box to stop the run, since a safety must help with Hill over the top on virtually every play. This should create more running lanes and potentially make it a bit easier for the Chiefs to establish the run.
Sammy watkins
The fact is that if Watkins remains healthy for 16 games, he is going to have impressive numbers compared to his career average. I had projected him for extra targets for the four weeks Hill would have been suspended. So given that Hill isn’t suspended, I have brought his numbers down a bit, to six targets per game. That brings my projection from 104 targets down to 96, and from 80 receptions down to 73.
Either way, Chiefs fans would be ecstatic if Watkins reached 73 receptions for 950 yards and six touchdowns, and that is my current projection for him.
demarcus robinson
Hill’s presence for every game likely keeps Robinson in the third receiver role this season. He will have to hold off Byron Pringle for reps, and Hardman may also work in on gadget plays here and there. But I do believe he will win the job as the third receiver.
If Hill had been out for a large chunk of the season, I could have seen Robinson making a leap and being a worthy fantasy football target. For now, I believe he is only relevant if Watkins gets injured.
Mecole hardman
I expressed in a previous article that I did not believe Hardman would be the main beneficiary if Hill were out of the lineup. As a rookie, it simply takes time to understand the playbook, get timing routes down, read defenses, and jell with your quarterback. Hardman was never going to duplicate what Hill can do anytime soon.
That said, Hill’s presence from day one does affect Hardman. He will get far fewer reps in training camp and will not be asked to be an immediate contributor on offense. Long term, I still think Hardman can grow into an important role in the offense, something like what Hill did as a rookie or to what DeAnthony Thomas did with the Chiefs. But I believe he will be used sparingly on offense this season.
travis kelce
Similar to Watkins, Kelce will not be affected much. I brought his targets down from 160 to 152, and his receptions down from 106 to 103. At 13 yards per reception, I project his total yards at 1,339. Those are almost identical to his stats from last season. There’s a chance that Hill’s presence leads to Kelce being left in single coverage more often, which could result in a slight increase in yards and targets, but the increase would be negligible at best.
In the end, the news about Hill is good news all around. Hill’s presence on the field lets Andy Reid continue to dream up creative ways to stress out the defense, and keeps the highest-flying offense in the league from losing any altitude.
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