Breece Hall entered last year as one of the most coveted players in fantasy football. After all, he finished second in fantasy points among running backs the previous season, totaling 76 catches, nearly 1,600 scrimmage yards and nine total touchdowns. Unfortunately, Hall was unable to meet heightened expectations. His stats declined across the board, which caused him to finish a very disappointing 16th in fantasy points among running backs.
So, what went wrong?
Well, Hall didn’t get consistent help from his offensive line … especially early in the season. In fact, he averaged an awful three yards per rush in his first five games. He averaged nearly six yards per tote during his breakout year of 2023. He also finished fourth among running backs in rushing yards over expected (146 yards) based on NextGen Stats that season. In 2024, he was 26th with just two yards over expected.
Hall also saw far fewer targets as a pass catcher, which was something I wrote about on Sports Illustrated last season. Over his final eight games of 2023 while playing with backup quarterbacks, Hall was targeted a ridiculous 61 times … including one game with 16! That simply wasn’t going to happen again in 2024, especially with Aaron Rodgers under center.
Hall also saw a decrease in touch percentage last season compared to 2023. In that year, he touched the rock 40.2 percent of the time. Dalvin Cook was second with 11 percent. In 2024, with rookies Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis now on the roster, Hall’s touch share fell to 35.6 percent. Allen and Davis combined to eat up 20 percent of the backfield touches.
2025 Fantasy Outlook
The Jets will have a brand-new look on offense this season. It started with the addition of Justin Fields, who will be the team’s new starting quarterback. A mobile signal-caller, Fields being under center should mean a greater focus on the ground game in 2024. The Men in Green also took an offensive lineman, Missouri OT Armaud Membou, with their first pick in the NFL draft. Based on data at PFF, he was the fifth-highest graded tackle in FBS overall last season, and he was the seventh-highest graded tackle in terms of run blocking.
Obviously, that’s good news for Hall. It’s also an advantage for him to have a quarterback like Fields in the same backfield, as defenses have to game plan for two weapons who can run the ball with success. On the flip side, however, Fields could take some of the goal-line work away from Hall. That’s an obvious concern. What’s more, new head coach Aaron Glenn has talked about using all three backs, Hall, Allen and Davis, in the offense.
Draft Or Pass
Hall has plenty of talent, there’s no question about that. But I do feel like his breakout 2023 campaign will ultimately be his best from a fantasy football perspective. That doesn’t mean he can’t still be an asset for managers, but it just won’t likely be as a high-end running back.
Instead, Hall should be seen as a No. 2 runner (albeit risk reward) who will warrant a third-round pick in most redrafts. That’s been the case based on his average draft position at the NFFC website (35.3). Hall was also a third-round pick in the SI 12-Team PPR Mock Draft.
Verdict
As a third-round pick and with the expectation that he likely won't duplicate his 2023 totals, Hall is a draft for me.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as Fantasy Football Draft Or Pass: Can Breece Hall Be Elite Once Again?.
