It’s rare that a normally selected player should be entirely avoided in fantasy football drafts, because at the right price, risk is mitigated. However, some guys just don’t warrant inclusion on 16-man rosters.
This piece highlights some of the more commonly drafted players whose selections may cause headaches.
Quarterbacks
Kyler Murray | Arizona Cardinals | ADP: 8:08 | Overvalued
Volume alone won’t sustain Murray as a top-10 quarterback, per early ADP figures. He’s still a rookie and needs to learn the ropes of the NFL, all with a shaky offensive line and a questionable cast of receivers. His head coach is also a rookie coming off of being fired for a lowly run in college. There are just so many pieces here to possibly go awry. Murray should be primarily targeted in best-ball formats or as an upside QB2 in traditional leagues.
Cam Newton | Carolina Panthers | ADP: 9:04 | Overvalued
When healthy, Newton offers tremendous worth to a fantasy lineup. He’s still working his way back from shoulder surgery, and we saw last year how ineffective he was with the injury. In 2019, the Panthers’ receiving corps isn’t exactly impressive, either. Newton was more efficient in Norv Turner’s system, which is encouraging, should Cam return to full strength. Be aware his rushing totals likely will decrease. Safer options with as much upside are being drafted after him.
Running backs
James Conner | Pittsburgh Steelers | ADP: 2:02 | Bust factor
There’s a reasonable amount of concern with Conner from performance and durability perspectives. The Steelers’ passing game will look considerably different in 2019, which could greatly impact the ground game’s efficiency. Conner missed a stretch last year with an ankle sprain, and questions must be asked about his overall durability. This point brings us to the talk about a committee approach. There is a lot that could go wrong for a borderline first-rounder.
Phillip Lindsay | Denver Broncos | ADP: 4:07 | Bust factor
The smallish back suffered a broken wrist late last season, which could be a red flag of things to come. He will share touches with Royce Freeman, and Denver has an entirely new offense as well as coaching staff. There is no guarantee Lindsay fits that system or is ingratiated with the new coaches. He was good enough last year where it is reasonable to believe Lindsay might just be an overvalued commodity rather than an outright bust, but the elements for the latter are present.
Mark Ingram | Baltimore Ravens | ADP: 4:08 | Overvalued
Ingram includes some potential for being a bust entering his age-30 season. Baltimore has several other capable backs in the mix, and Lamar Jackson’s legs will steal a great number of fantasy opportunities from Ingram. It could have been an isolated incident, but Ingram missed four games last year via suspension, so there’s an elevated concern in this area. It’s a tough division and a new offense for the first time in Ingram’s career. This one easily could skew into the bust territory, but the risk is much lower with matching expectations.
Miles Sanders | Philadelphia Eagles | ADP: 7:11 | Overvalued
Sanders is a rookie with one season of collegiate action under his belt. The Eagles traded for Jordan Howard, and even if the former Chicago Bear is only a one-year rental, there’s no guarantee Sanders sees more than spell work. Howard is no slouch. He wasn’t a great fit for last year’s Matt Nagy offense, so one has to question his fit in the similar Doug Pederson system. That element of question gives Sanders a glimmer of hope. No matter what, Pederson has made it clear this offense employs a heavy rotation of backs.
Wide receivers
Odell Beckham Jr., Cleveland Browns | ADP: 2:01 | Overvalued (ish)
Look, this one is more of a “don’t take things for granted” scenario. Yes, Beckham is an elite talent. Yes, the Browns have a blossoming offense. Yes, Baker Mayfield is an upgrade from Eli Manning. Yes, a fresh start was necessary for OBJ. All good, right? On the other side of the coin, Cleveland has enormous expectations for a team not used to being viewed as anything more than a laughing stock. The offense is run by a first-year head coach — responsibilities change in that situation. The division remains tough. Most importantly, Beckham has so much more talent around him to take looks. He also has fought injuries in recent time. He’ll be fine, but take this as a warning not to draft him higher than the turn, and don’t be shocked if Beckham is inconsistent.
Calvin Ridley | Atlanta Falcons | ADP: 5:01 | Overvalued
There’s a great deal to like about Ridley, especially after such a promising rookie campaign. He is touchdown-dependent, and this makes him riskier than most. He caught six or more balls in three games last year, and only once did his target count reach double digits. Ridley was streaky, scoring six TDs in a three-game stretch before going ice cold for three more games and scoring once in the next six. In 2019, the Falcons have three new starting linemen, including two rookies on the right side. Julio Jones is still elite, and Austin Hooper has stepped up his game. Mohamed Sanu won’t go down without a fight. Ridley will pop off some weeks and likely disappear for stretches.
Will Fuller | Houston Texans | ADP: 7:10 | Bust factor
Low-hanging fruit? Sure feels like it, but gamers love this guy. Fuller has not been able to stay on the field, and he is returning from a catastrophic knee injury that resulted in reconstructive surgery. He missed nine games in 2018, and while Fuller should be healthy enough to play in Week 1, he won’t be himself until closer to midseason. He is overly reliant on scoring touchdowns, and after three consecutive incomplete seasons, it’s hard to imagine he’ll be dependable in 2019.
Tight ends
George Kittle | San Francisco 49ers | ADP: 3:06 | Overvalued
Kittle had injury concerns after battling hip, hamstring and ankle issues in 2017. He missed only one game, however. His breakout season last year was due in part to a 26.4 percent target share (tied second most among TEs). He could see a lower volume of looks if Dante Pettis stands out, Marquise Goodwin stays on the field, and Deebo Samuel steps up as a rook. Furthermore, this offense has a trio of quality pass-catching backs, and an upgraded defense could translate into fewer attempts. Expectations are high for Kittle, and he’s as talented as anyone, so understand this could be one of those “victim of circumstances” situations. Tight ends are so weak this year, however, he belongs as the third TE chosen. The only real issue is how early gamers are opting for him (2:06 is his high range). Ideally, he goes a round later than his ADP.
Eric Ebron | Indianapolis Colts | ADP: 6:11 | Overvalued
Consider this one a warning of sorts … He also has a bust factor, but his inclusion can be simple: At Ebron’s current ADP, he’s a fair value. However, his high-end valuation has swung by two full rounds, which is insane. His touchdown prowess last year inflated his value — no scoring, not much worth here. The addition of Devin Funchess’ large frame could pose a problem for Ebron in the red zone. Treat him as a TE1 once the safer names are off of the board.
Jared Cook | New Orleans Saints | ADP: 7:02 | Overvalued
Cook could be considered a bust, as well. The Saints have barely utilized the position since Jimmy Graham’s departure, and there are so many mouths to feed. Cook is coming off of a career year that took until his 10th NFL season to occur — usually never a good sigh. He has a history of injury concerns, and the veteran is 32 years old. There are many possible problems, so be careful in valuing him — don’t be that person who takes him in the fourth round.
