Fantasy Fight Forecasting: The UFC welterweight title picture
It’s a crazy time in MMA with the global COVID-19 pandemic continuing to put a wrench in sports scheduling across the board.
The UFC is targeting a May 9 return that will feature a plethora of big matchups. But no top-ranked welterweights appear to be booked for that card, so 170 pounds is a perfect place to start the “Fantasy Fight Forecasting” series.
We’ll break down the top of each division in a fun, fantasy-like final four bracket that will feature the current champion and each of the division’s top contenders. I reserve the right to change my official pick come fight week since so many things can change between now and the potential then.
Here’s how I see the top of the welterweight division shaking out once the action officially resumes.
Division: Welterweight
Champion: Kamaru Usman
Players: Jorge Masvidal, Leon Edwards, Tyron Woodley
Kamaru Usman (16-1 MMA, 11-0 UFC)
vs. Jorge Masvidal (35-13 MMA, 12-6 UFC)
Why it could happen: Between their heated altercation earlier this year to Usman’s recent proclamtion that Masvidal is next, it’s kind of a no-brainer that these two alpha males are on a collision course.
Sure, negotiations may have fallen apart last time around, but I have to imagine that the UFC gets this deal done and gives the fighters their deserved asking prices to help bulk up the big returns they’re both planning and promising.
Predicted line: Usman -230, Masvidal +190
Thoughts on the fight: I know that there are slightly wider lines currently listed for this fight at online betting houses, but I think that this matchup is a bit closer than some stylistic stereotypes may lead you to believe.
Don’t get me wrong – Kamaru Usman absolutely deserves to be favored over Jorge Masvidal no matter how you cut it, as I could easily see his corraling striking and relentless, suffocating nature paying dividends down the stretch of a five-round affair. Still, I suspect that Masvidal’s presumed kryptonite of wrestlers is a theme that gets a bit overplayed, as the Cuban vet has quietly shored up a lot of those holes within the past decade.
More importantly than his wrestling and cardio upgrades (both of which are crucial against someone like Usman, mind you), is the fact that Masvidal strikes incredibly well off the breaks and inside of the small spaces that the current champ finds comfort in. Even if Usman doesn’t allow Masvidal enough space to punish him with leg kicks and left hands (as I see both his hooks and southpaw crosses having a ton of play against the champ), the man known as “Gamebred” will still be able to offer offensive threats and scrambles every step of the way.
It’s ultimately hard to bet against or be confident in picking opposite of such an imposing and durable force like Usman, who I think wins this matchup more often than not. That said, after listening to a recent interview Masvidal did with “Gorgeous” George and Goze Garcia, I like where the BMF belt holder’s head is at in regards to training and staying ready during these strange times, as I’m currently leaning toward the underdog to test the champs’ kicking defense and dipping propensities en route to stunning him into either a submission or stoppage by strikes.
Early pick: Masvidal by third-round submission (D’Arce choke)
Tyron Woodley (19-4-1 MMA, 9-3-1 UFC)
vs. Leon Edwards (18-3 MMA, 10-2 UFC)
Why it could happen: Considering that this matchup was already booked to headline a card on ESPN+, it’s easy to make a case to re-book Tyron Woodley[/auttotag] vs. [autotag]Leon Edwards. Although I hate title contender bookings that can sometimes feel like they only apply to one-half of the matchup, this one totally makes sense given the potential stakes.
For Woodley, if he does want to get back into immediate title contention, taking on and beating one of the most deserving contenders in the division is a great way to do it. And for Edwards, it allows the proverbial dark horse to perhaps finally make that transition to more of a household name outside of hardcore circles.
Predicted line: Edwards -170, Woodley +130
Thoughts on the fight: Though I suspect that more money will come in on the favorite by fight time, I agree with the initial opening lines on this matchup, as I made my fantasy line similar.
If you look at the only two losses in Edwards’ UFC career, they came to deceptively durable, headstrong grapplers. Between his Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt and collegiate wrestling credentials, Woodley is even more accoladed than said opposition, but I doubt any of that will matter because Woodley – sans his Strikeforce career or finish of Darren Till – has primarily used his grappling for defensive purposes.
So basically, unless Woodley dusts off his offensive wrestling and addresses his pacing and pressure precautions, I believe he’ll have to win this fight on the feet. The former champ has recently camped in Thailand in an effort to improve his striking, but I’m just not sure of how much of a different fighter we will see at nearly 38.
Hopefully, for Woodley’s sake, we see him return to his leg kick sensibilities given what we saw Rafael dos Anjos do to Edwards in the middle rounds; but I don’t know how likely that is considering that Woodley hasn’t thrown more than nine leg kicks per fight in the past seven years. And though Woodley is technically undefeated against southpaws (6-0 against UFC-level lefties), I’m not sure he can dictate striking exchanges with the speed and savvy of Edwards for 25 minutes, as I suspect it’s KO or bust for the American.
Early pick: Edwards by unanimous decision
Jorge Masvidal
vs. Leon Edwards
Why it could happen: Well, considering I make the rules of this here fantasy bracket, it only seems natural that we follow this thing through by matching up the winners. Besides, how fitting would this fight be after that legendary altercation between the two after last year’s UFC London show?
Predicted line: Masvidal -110, Edwards -105
Thoughts on the fight: This matchup is close no matter how you cut it, as I only favored Masvidal in this fantasy opener given his popularity and hypothetical finish of the sitting champion (in comparison to another decision by Edwards, at least in this scenario).
For me, this a fight I’ve wanted to see before the whole “3 piece and a soda” phenomena even occurred, as these are downright two of the most baddest technicians to ever walk the ranks of welterweight. Both men are well-rounded strikers who fancy a lot of the same things on the feet, whether they’re pulling and returning punches or landing slick elbows off the clinch breaks.
Although they (or anyone for that matter) will never get the same praise or credit that Georges St-Pierre does when talking about fighters who learned how to wrestle on the job, Masvidal and Edwards are each atop similar molds of welterweight wrestling – a theme that runs strongly throughout the division’s history inside of the octagon.
I could honestly flip a coin to make a case for either fighter, as I’m already finding myself wanting to spew more praise to avoid making a prediction.
Despite my gut telling me that Edwards’ left hand will be as potent as the outcome of him winning by split-decision, I’m still not sure the Englishman will have the edge when it comes to the pacing or adjustments. Add in the fact the Masvidal’s underrated kicking game seems to further come to life against southpaws, and I suspect that we could see the Cuban streetfighter pick up where “RDA” left off in low kick department and cement his late-career renaissance with a UFC title.
Early pick: Masvidal by fourth-round TKO (leg kicks)
