It’s a crazy time in MMA with the global COVID-19 pandemic continuing to put a wrench in sports scheduling across the board.
The UFC is tripling down on its promise to get back to work next week, announcing a plethora of big matchups for its return shows on May 9, 13 and 16 in Jacksonville, Fla. But with a lack of top-ranked light heavyweights, I figured the 205-pound title picture would be a perfect place for this second installment of Fantasy Fight Forecasting.
We’ll break down the top of each division in a fun, fantasy-like final four bracket that will feature the current champion and each of the division’s top contenders. I reserve the right to change my official pick come fight week since so many things can change between now and the potential then.
Here’s how I see the top of the light heavyweight division shaking out once the action officially resumes at a full clip.
Division: Light heavyweight
Champion: Jon Jones
Players: Dominick Reyes, Jan Blachowicz, Thiago Santos
Jon Jones vs. Jan Blachowicz
Why it could happen: Aside from the on-camera moment that Jan Blachowicz and Jon Jones shared post the Polish fighter knocking out Corey Anderson earlier this year, it’s hard to hate on fresh matchmaking.
Sure, Jones (26-1 MMA, 20-1 UFC) vs. Blachowicz (26-8 MMA, 9-5 UFC) isn’t the sexiest fight on paper, but I’m not the biggest fan of immediate rematches for the title (in regards to the other names on the proverbial table), especially when we’re talking about younger fighters who reside in more shallow divisions.
From his not-so-veiled threats on social media to the doubling down of his stance that he stated earlier this month, Blachowicz – who has won seven of his past eight fights – seems to understand that now is his best chance to cut to the front of the contender’s queue. It’s also not hard to see Jones and/or his management as seeing this as a solid opportunity to reestablish both dominance and confidence after the champion’s last outing at UFC 247.
Predicted line: Jones -480, Blachowicz +360
Thoughts on the fight: Although the predicted spread above could be a bit wider (as I’m sure inflation will raise betting lines well above sea level regardless of the opener), I suspect that this fight plays out a lot closer than many would believe.
Not only is Jones coming off of a close and competitive war that many saw go against him, but he will also be coming off yet another disturbing incident outside of the cage, as I wouldn’t blame anyone for questioning where Jones’ head may be coming out of self-quarantine for a hypothetical fight.
Add in the fact that Blachowicz has been underrated throughout the majority of his UFC tenure (coming in as the underdog in eight of his past 10 fights), and I think that the Polish fighter can stymie the stylings of Jones. Blachowicz has made crucial improvements to both his wrestling and cardio in recent years, and carries heavy body and low kicks that could certainly offer hurdles for the reigning champ to clear.
Still, unless Blachowicz can either catch Jones with his uppercut-hook return or damage his calf badly off of a low kick, then I see Jones winning this fight. I don’t suspect it will be a pretty affair, which likely means that we’ll see Blachowicz receive little credit while Jones gets heaps of criticism.
Early pick: Jones by unanimous decision
Dominick Reyes vs. Thiago Santos
Why it could happen: Despite Dominick Reyes currently asking for either a rematch with Jones or an interim title bout with Jan Blachowicz, I – like I said on the previous page – am not a fan of immediate rematches for the title (unless something crazy happens, e.g. “the fan man”).
For one, if a fighter loses twice to a sitting champion, it almost-always portends for a poor career trajectory to come, as recovering from that type of door closure can be permanently detrimental to the competitive psyche. Secondly, Reyes (12-1 MMA, 5-1 UFC) – like Thiago Santos – is still very youthful by the standards of 205 pounds.
Santos (21-7 MMA, 13-6 UFC), however, is arguably in even more need of this sort of step given that he is coming off of serious injury. So, in the spirit of fresh matchups, let these two top contenders battle it out for the next title shot in what should be a tremendous action fight.
Predicted line: Reyes -190, Santos +150
Thoughts on the fight: In what has all the makings for fireworks, this a fight I would selfishly want to see booked.
Santos, who is 2-1 against UFC-level southpaws, offers all the violence you could ask for in the form of hard hooks and crushing kicks – which I suspect brings out the best in Reyes. A talented southpaw striker, Reyes can either blitz on a retreating foe or find counters within the oncoming chaos.
Though I doubt that many would take issue with the American opening as the favorite, this is undoubtedly a dangerous test for Reyes. He may be an underrated wrestler and grappler who could find advantages on the floor, but I’m not so sure Reyes would try and take it there given Santos’ improved takedown defense and potent, hair-triggered counters.
For that reason, I think we get ourselves a high-tensioned affair that likely ends inside the distance after a short feeling out period in the first round.
Early pick: Reyes by second-round TKO
Jon Jones vs. Dominick Reyes 2
Why it could happen: Despite being the product of my hypothetical exercise, this a matchup that has a serious chance of happening in 2020.
Whether the UFC decides to book a rematch straight away or the matchmaking brackets in real life end up resembling these results, do not be surprised to Jones and Reyes meet again.
Reyes, of course, has been pushing hard to get another shot at the champion, as he is not short on confidence after their last encounter. And, for what it’s worth, I also suspect that the fans will get behind this matchup a lot more the second time around.
Predicted line: Jones -240, Reyes +190
Thoughts on the fight: Between Jones coming off of a (hypothetical) lackluster win, as well as his previous brushes with danger in and out of the cage, it’s not too hard to see the public and pundits alike questioning Jones’ current standing – hence him coming in as half the favorite he was the first time around.
Don’t get me wrong: We all know that Jones traditionally excels in rematches, as his adjustments and applications are still among the best in the sport. That said, when you consider the amount of tape that accompanies the champion’s miles (as well as the fact that he couldn’t meaningfully take Reyes down), I begin to wonder if Jones is actually the person who is in a better position to game plan.
Sure, Jones may have an undeniable experience edge in championship fights, but Reyes – depending on perspective – was basically able to come within inches of upsetting the arguable greatest in his first five-round appearance.
Now, does that mean that I think Reyes will have the advantage in the later rounds? Of course not.
I do, however, think that we should be careful to not forget how quickly experience can spoil in this game. I’ve yet to officially pick against Jones as an analyst, but my early lean (which, again, I reserve the right to change should this fight become official) is that an upset will be on the horizon in the form of a head kick should these two ever meet again.
Early pick: Reyes by second-round knockout
