SANTA CLARA, Calif. — What are the 49ers going to do at quarterback in 2021?
It’s easily the most popular question from outside team headquarters this offseason for myriad reasons, including Jimmy Garoppolo’s struggles in the fourth quarter of Super Bowl LIV added to the injuries that cost the organization a shot at contending in 2018 and 2020.
In between was a successful run as a starting quarterback that included having one of the best statistical seasons in franchise history in 2019, which is notable given the 49ers are one of the few teams with multiple quarterbacks enshrined in the Pro Football Hall of Fame. Garoppolo’s 22-8 regular season record as San Francisco’s starter has been overshadowed by his torn ACL three seasons ago, his high ankle sprains in 2020 and that one time he squared off against the Kansas City Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes for a championship.
The results-based-business crowd would like to Garoppolo shipped out of town while others prefer he gets a shot to respond to the vitriol sent his way. Call it the Alex Smith Effect.
There’s a big problem, however. There aren’t enough championship level quarterbacks to go around, which leaves the 49ers to figure out if Garoppolo can improve enough, and stay healthy enough, to bring a sixth Lombardi Trophy to the franchise or if there’s a more viable option elsewhere.
Let’s try to bring some clarity to the situation.
THE DARNOLD QUESTION
Is New York Jets quarterback Sam Darnold an upgrade over Garoppolo? Based on their NFL careers to date, the evidence points to a resounding “no.”
Garoppolo has the edge in just about every meaningful statistical category when it comes to efficiency and production. Garoppolo has completed passes at a nearly 8% higher clip and has the edge in yards per attempt (8.2 to 6.6), passer rating (98.9 to 78.6), rate of touchdowns per attempt (5.2% to 3.7%) and interceptions (2.7% to 3.2%).
Yet the 49ers are being linked as a possible destination for Darnold as the offseason chatter continues. It could be because Darnold was the better draft prospect coming out. He was the third overall pick in 2018 while Garoppolo went in the second round in 2014.
Darnold’s poor career start could be traced to landing with the Jets, who have been one of the most dysfunctional franchises in the NFL since he entered the league. A new environment might have a Ryan Tannehill-like ramifications, though quarterbacks who struggled with the teams that drafted them rarely turn into stars at their second stops.
Darnold is younger and cheaper than Garoppolo, but it would be nearly impossible to make the case he’d give the 49ers a better shot at winning the Super Bowl in 2021 than a player that already helped the team reach one in 2019.
From Albert Breer of The MMQB on the Jets weighing their options of where to send Darnold should they use their No. 2 pick on a quarterback:
“San Francisco would be even more fascinating. Darnold’s a strong fit for Kyle Shanahan’s offense, and trading for him would make the Niners six years younger, and $20 million cheaper at the position in 2020. The Niners like Jimmy Garoppolo, as we’ve said here, and won’t move off him without a clear upgrade. Could Darnold be that?”
And from Peter King of Football Morning in America, who has been plugged into the Shanahan-John Lynch front office since its first draft in 2017:
“No team in the next 14 months has a better draft situation than the Jets. Currently, they own a decent piece of quarterback real estate in Sam Darnold. He’s worth, at least, a high second-round pick in this draft — 39th overall to Carolina, maybe, or 40th to Denver, or 43rd to San Francisco. (The 49ers are my personal favorite.)”
Are the 49ers King’s personal favorite because he wants to see him running Shanahan’s offense or because he thinks it’s the most likely destination for Darnold? That’s unclear. But his mention of San Francisco is notable.
Then there’s Chris Simms, Shanahan’s longtime friend (the two have matching tattoos), who offered up his thoughts and indicated he believes Darnold, the league’s lowest rated passer in 2021, would be an upgrade over Garoppolo.
My opinion: the 49ers would have an impossible time trying to justify bringing in Darnold to replace Garoppolo (at least until he won something). It would make much more sense to add him a backup should Garoppolo get hurt again. Otherwise, good luck telling Garoppolo’s teammates, who, to a man, have staunchly supported Garoppolo throughout, that going with a younger, cheaper and less productive quarterback is the right way to help win Super Bowls.
KEEP GAROPPOLO, UPGRADE BACKUPS
This remains the most likely route for Shanahan and Lynch, especially when looking at the free-agent pool knowing they might be able to get a discount on a veteran without having to give up draft picks.
Available players like Andy Dalton, Jacoby Brissett or Ryan Fitzpatrick could potentially be had on the cheap because free-agent dollars are more scarce this offseason than any point in recent memory. That’s the new reality until the salary cap gets back to normal levels in 2022 or 2023, when revenue streams recover from the pandemic and the new television rights deals are signed (which could happen this week or next).
The appeal of San Francisco to those players is the fact backups have played so much for the 49ers in recent seasons. Garoppolo missed the final 13 games of 2018 and 10 games in 2020. Garoppolo’s backups, Nick Mullens and C.J. Beathard, combined to go 6-17 since he tore his ACL early in 2018. Both Mullens and Beathard are free agents.
DRAFT A REPLACEMENT, PUT GAROPPOLO IN LIMBO
There’s going to be plenty written about the draft prospects in the coming weeks. What we know now: there are five quarterbacks likely to get taken in the first round, but it’s unclear how many would be available when the 49ers pick at No. 12, or if they’re bent on trading up.
Trevor Lawrence (Clemson), Zach Wilson (BYU), Josh Fields (Ohio State), Trey Lance (North Dakota State) and Mac Jones (Alabama) are consensus first-round selections with varying skill sets.
Based on history, there’s a strong likelihood one or two of these players develops into a star. And desperate teams trying to trade up for quarterbacks have a shoddy record, at best. For every trade-up scenario involving Patrick Mahomes, Deshaun Watson and Josh Allen, there’s one for Blaine Gabbert, Johnny Manziel, Mitchell Trubisky, Darnold or current 49er Josh Rosen.
On the bright side, there’s growing evidence that quality of destination could be the biggest determining factor in success of a quarterback. The 49ers boast a capable play caller/offensive coordinator with good weapons in George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk, Raheem Mostert and Deebo Samuel. It could be an ideal scenario for a rookie signal caller if the team could shore up the offensive line.
But would the 49ers be willing to part with the assets it would take to move up given their needs along the offensive line, secondary and pass rush? They’d have a better shot at addressing those areas if they kept Garoppolo.
Many draft prognosticators and experts have pegged the 49ers to take a quarterback — Jones has been getting a lot of buzz lately — but adding a corner, offensive lineman or pass rusher remains the most likely option. The team would also be wise to trade back for more swings at the draft pinata.
MAKE A SPLASHY TRADE
Objectively, this is the only avenue that could provide the 49ers a clear upgrade from Garoppolo.
No, the Houston Texans aren’t even taking phone calls on Watson yet, but their hand might be forced at some point. And the longer the drama in Houston plays out, the better things could be for the 49ers on the Watson front.
If Houston decided to trade Watson, they would be best off doing it before the draft. That way they could add their next franchise quarterback with a high pick, potentially the Miami Dolphins at No. 3, the Jets at No. 2 or the Carolina Panthers at No. 8. The 49ers are at a disadvantage because they pick at No. 12.
But should the Watson saga last until the summer? Those picks will have been made and the playing field of suitors will even out. Teams picking ahead of the 49ers in April won’t have the same advantage as they did before the draft when Houston loses its chance at hand-picking Watson’s replacement.
If and when the Watson trade happens, expect San Francisco to be listed as an interested party, even they don’t land him. The 49ers since Shanahan and Lynch took over have at least been in the mix for a number of high-profile players and there’s no reason they shouldn’t pick up the phone to figure out what it would take to acquire Watson.
It could come down to their willingness to offer quality players in return, not just draft picks. Would the 49ers be willing to trade building blocks like Nick Bosa, Aiyuk, Fred Warner or Kittle? It seems unlikely. The Texans just trotted out Watson with a depleted roster and went 4-12 in 2020 despite Watson leading the league in passing.
Ultimately, Garoppolo should be considered the favorite to remain the 49ers starter. Perhaps not because he’s the best option but the one already in house the team can win with. To this point, Shanahan has stayed on his course he outlined during the season.
“You look into every avenue,” Shanahan said about the team’s quarterback situation in December, “and you see if there’s something out there that can get you a ton better it’s the same answer for every position. But look at Jimmy, look what he’s done, look at where he’s at with us financially and we better have a very good answer if you’re going to find something better than that, because Jimmy’s shown in one year that he’s a guy who can take us to the Super Bowl and I also think Jimmy’s going to get a lot better the more he plays.”
