For the 21st consecutive State of Origin series, NSW will kick off with a different halves pairing to the last opener with Blues coach Laurie Daley recalling Mitchell Pearce to partner Trent Hodkinson. Pearce will shift to five-eighth for the first time in his career, replacing Canterbury pivot Josh Reynolds.
The decision to recall Pearce is both curious and unpopular, despite his solid NRL form this year. The Sydney Roosters half, who made his Origin debut in 2008, has won just three of his 12 Origin outings, failing to play in a winning series before being dropped for Hodkinson and Reynolds in 2014. The Canterbury duo led the Blues to their first victory in nine years with Hodkinson playing a match-winning hand to seal the series.
Pearce has struggled time and time again at Origin level and to recall him out of position is a massive risk that is unlikely to prove popular east of Bondi and south of the Tweed. A video doing the rounds of last week was a seven-minute compilation highlighting his many poor plays in a Blues jersey - hardly confidence-inspiring, especially given the new halves pairing will square up against Johnathan Thurston and Cooper Cronk, a combination that has played eight Origins and 10 Tests together.
The decision to take a conservative approach with the halves is exacerbated by the absence of Jarryd Hayne with full-back Josh Dugan a gifted runner but a custodian who lacks Hayne’s ability to set up other players with a strong passing game. New South Wales fans will no doubt use Pearce as a piñata if the Blues lose the 2015 series opener, even with the state hardly being spoiled for choice in that position with Adam Reynolds injured, James Maloney struggling defensively, the Bulldogs pair out of form, Jamie Soward seemingly blacklisted and Luke Brooks not ready.
Another odd decision – this time seemingly based out of loyalty – was the retention of Will Hopoate on the wing. The Eels outside back has crossed for just three tries for the last-placed side and has not started on the flank in 2015. He was picked ahead of Test winger Alex Johnston, who has 29 tries in 28 first grade games. Loyalty didn’t swing across the entire squad though with Josh Reynolds joined by Luke Lewis as the high-profile axings. Lewis was a surprise inclusion for the Australian side in the Anzac Test but at close to 32 and with just 16 games across the last two seasons, Daley has opted for youth and greater energy off the bench in a move that makes a lot of sense.
The Maroons again stuck true to their mantra of loyalty above all else with Chris McQueen and Dave Taylor the only two players missing from last year’s final game – and Taylor was dumped for returning veteran Matt Scott. McQueen makes way for the consistently strong Josh McGuire, a workhorse who has been knocking on the Queensland door for a number of years and is a well-deserving debutant.
The New South Wales side contains two first-gamers – both from Canterbury – in lock Josh Jackson and bench prop David Klemmer. Jackson, a player in the mould of Brad Clyde, is embarking on what will be a long and decorated Origin career. Klemmer is a fearless intimidator who won’t play a lot of minutes but will be a cannonball when on the field.
The New South Wales bench is one area the Blues can claim a significant advantage and if they are to surprise the Maroons it will be on the back of the energy provided by Klemmer, Boyd Cordner and, in particular, Andrew Fifita. The Sharks prop leads all forwards in tackle breaks this year and is arguably the form prop of the premiership.
The Queensland interchange rotation certainly lacks the size and ferocity of their Blues counterparts. Matt Gillett and Jacob Lillyman are more Melbourne Cup stayers than Golden Slipper sprinters while Mal Meninga stuck with the concept of a bench utility in picking Daly Cherry-Evans. The Manly half-back is no certainty to play though with word spreading on Tuesday that 18th man Dylan Napa could play to counter the Blues’ bench size.
Typically though, the Queensland selection was short on shocks. The Maroons stick fat and they have again, despite last year’s series loss. The only eyebrow-raising non-selection was that of Raiders forward Josh Papalii but few expected him to win a recall even on the back of two quality performances for the Raiders.
Indeed, surprises are pretty much non-existent thanks to the media deals with the coaches, who inevitably leak every selection before the official team is named, making the official announcement little more than a hollow farce.
Punters have come into Queensland when the sides were revealed, backed from $1.91 to $1.80 to win the series opener. There is no question the push to make the Maroons favourites is based on the Blues’ lack of playmaking. If loyalty is the word to describe Queensland team selection, conservatism is the word for New South Wales.
Size over speed for wingers, defence over attack for centres, experience over potential among the playmakers … it is a strategy that has been tried time and time again by the Blues over the last decade and it is one that has rarely worked.
The much-used and entirely accurate Einstein quote about insanity being the repetition of the same act and the expectation of a different outcome very much applies to the Blues. After trying something different last year, the Blues ended Queensland’s historic run. But with the championship belt around the waist, selectors have fallen back into old habits and it won’t end well for New South Wales.
