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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Politics
Andrew Sparrow

Vince Cable now overwhelming favourite to be next Lib Dem leader after Davey stands aside - Politics live

Sir Vince Cable is now virtually certain to be next Lib Dem leader after Sir Ed Davey has said he won’t stand.
Sir Vince Cable is now virtually certain to be next Lib Dem leader after Sir Ed Davey has said he won’t stand. Photograph: Pete Maclaine/EPA

Afternoon summary

  • Sir Vince Cable, the Lib Dem former business secretary, has become the overwhelming favourite for next party leader after Sir Ed Davey announced he would not stand. Two other high-profile potential leadership candidates, Norman Lamb and Jo Swinson, have also already said they will not run. Nominations do not close until next month, but Cable is the only candidate to have declared and there is no other Lib Dem MP seen as having the potential to beat him in a contest. Commenting on Davey’s announcement, Cable said:
  • David Davis, the Brexit secretary, has said the UK will be out of the EU customs union and single market by March 2019. He spoke as Philip Hammond, the chancellor, used a speech in Berlin to call for a transitional deal to avoid a “disruptive and dangerous cliff edge” in trade with the EU after Brexit. (See 3.44pm.) Hammond implied he would like to see the UK stay in the customs union or the single market during that period, according to the Economist’s Berlin correspondent Jeremy Cliffe.
  • The Labour Welsh government has said that, if London can find £1bn for the DUP and Northern Ireland, it should be able to find money to lift the 1% cap on NHS pay. (See 4.41pm.) On Twitter the Conservative MP Heidi Allen is making a similar point.

That’s all from me for today.

Thanks for the comments.

It looks like the talks to restore devolution back to Northern Ireland are in deep trouble this evening. The problem hinges on Sinn Fein demands for an Irish Language Act which the party claims the Democratic Unionists have failed to move on.

Declan Kearney, Sinn Fein’s national chairman, came out of negotiations at Stormont this evening said that only a “stand alone” Irish Language Act that excludes other languages spoken in Northern Ireland was acceptable. Kearney claimed that the DUP was blocking that “stand alone” Act. He accused the DUP of being in “default” in meeting longstanding commitments to an Irish Language Act.

Naomi Long, the leader of the cross community Alliance party, said the prospects now of a deal before the 29 June deadline for creating a new power sharing executive were “incredibly bleak.”

If the talks fail the Northern Ireland Secretary James Brokenshire has two choices: either re-impose direct rule and allow London ministers to hand out the extra more than £1bn from the DUP-Tory deal; or else allow civil servants to run devolved regional ministries up until the autumn when a new talks process could be called.

Vince Cable now overwhelming favourite to be next Lib Dem leader after Davey says he won't stand

Sir Ed Davey, the Lib Dem former energy secretary, has announced that he will not stand for the party leadership. In a blog for Lib Dem Voice he said he did not want the disruption to his family. He explained:

Last weekend I went glamping. with Emily and our children, John and Ellie. This luxury form of camping was my birthday present to my super-patient wife, and our first proper time to reflect together after the general election.

And to cut to the chase, I’ve come back to Westminster more determined than ever to campaign hard for the party Emily and I both love – but not to campaign to lead the party at this moment ...

Our joy this weekend was seeing our two children play together. And when you understand that John (aged 9) is severely disabled, you will appreciate that seeing our 3 year old daughter make him laugh is quite special.

And if it helps explain my decision not to run just a little more, please remember that my father died when I was 4 and my mother when I was 15. Being there for my children over the next few crucial years and to see those special moments is my personal priority.

So my decision not to stand now to be Leader of our party is a difficult one, but it is rooted in my family: the need to be there for my young children and not continually away from home; the need to protect my family from the inevitable intrusion on our lives; and the need to protect myself from pressures that would otherwise compromise my job as a father while they are still so young.

With Norman Lamb and Jo Swinson already having ruled themselves out, that means Sir Vince Cable, the former business secretary, now seems virtually certain to become to succeed Tim Farron as leader - possibly unopposed. No other candidate has declared.

But we may not know for sure until 20 July, when nominations close.

Updated

Police Federation of Northern Ireland complains police won't benefit from £1bn Tory/DUP deal

Rank and file police officers in Northern Ireland have denounced the DUP Downing Street deal with the Tories as a missed opportunity to plug policing gaps in the region.

The Police Federation of Northern Ireland points out that a further £20m will be taken out of the Police Service of Northern Ireland’s budget this year.

Mark Lindsay, the Federation’s Chairman in the region said the DUP-Tory deal could have produced at the very least a “stay of execution” in terms of cuts to police numbers and resources.

The Police Federation’s withering criticism is neuralgic for the DUP which only insisted it would go into power sharing government a decade ago if Sinn Fein gave full support to the PSNI. The DUP stands on a strong police, pro-law and order platform and includes many ex members of the old Royal Ulster Constabulary. But Lindsay is amplifying the discontent of police rank and file over policing being left out of the Downing Street deal. He said:

We’re disappointed that there’s nothing in the agreement signed between the Conservatives and the DUP for policing. We would have liked to see a badly needed financial injection, but there’s nothing in the deal for the service.

This is a missed opportunity. At the very least, we need a ‘stay of execution’ on the latest round of cuts which will take a further £20m out of the PSNI budget.

Northern Ireland politicians know the pressures officers are under day and daily. Officers deserve to be front and centre when it comes to getting the tools to deliver policing.

It seems from this deal that the work they do is going unheeded or else being taken for granted.

Welsh government says £1bn for Northern Ireland shows London can end 1% pay cap for NHS

The Labour Welsh government is saying that, if the government can find £1bn for Northern Ireland, it should be able to lift the 1% pay cap on NHS staff. Vaughan Gething, the Welsh health secretary, said:

I’ve today written to the secretary of state for health, Jeremy Hunt, urging him to make the case to the UK Treasury to remove the cap on pay and make funds available across the UK to allow hard working NHS staff to receive a pay uplift of greater than 1%.

Yesterday, the UK government found more than £1bn to effectively end austerity in Northern Ireland. I fully expect them to make money available so that we can give our hardworking health service staff the pay rise they deserve. They deserve nothing less.

Vaughan Gething.
Vaughan Gething. Photograph: Dimitris Legakis/D Legakis/Athena Picture Agency

Javid sets up expert advisory panel on fire safety to help make buildings safe after Grenfell Tower

Sajid Javid, the communities secretary, has set up an independent expert advisory panel to advise what can be done to make buildings safe following the Grenfell Tower first.

It will be chaired by Sir Ken Knight, former London fire commissioner and former government chief fire and rescue adviser.

Other core members of the panel will be: Dr Peter Bonfield, chief executive of the building research establishment; Roy Wilsher, chair of the national fire chiefs council; and Amanda Clack, EY partner and president of the royal institution of chartered surveyors.

Javid said:

It’s absolutely right that there will be an independent public inquiry to get to the truth about what happened and who was responsible for the Grenfell Tower tragedy.

However, I want to know if there are measures we can put in place now to keep people safe and I want them done immediately. I want the public to be confident everything possible is being done.

That is why I am announcing a new expert advisory panel to advise government on any immediate action that is required to ensure all buildings are safe.

The panel will advise on “any immediate action that is required so the public can be confident everything possible is being done to make all public and private buildings safe as quickly as possible”. It is due to have its first meeting this week.

Talks aimed at restoring power sharing devolved government in Northern Ireland have hit a major roadblock over Arlene Foster becoming the region’s first minister once more.

Reports from inside the discussions at Stormont this afternoon indicate that Sinn Fein is sticking to its demand that Foster cannot be first minister while an inquiry is taking place in a botched energy scheme that cost nearly £500m.

The investigation is into the renewable heating incentive (RHI), which she championed while in the post of local economy minister. It is expected to take nearly a year to complete. Her refusal to step down from the post temporarily while an assembly inquiry took place into RHI at the start of this year prompted the late Martin McGuinness to resign as deputy first minister. His resignation triggered the collapse of power sharing six months ago.

One DUP source said on Tuesday that it appeared “Sinn Fein for now at latest are digging their heels in” over Foster’s position. “They cannot choose who the DUP nominates as first minister. They are asking the impossible,” the DUP source said.

David Davis, the Brexit secretary, was speaking at the Times CEO summit earlier today. Sky’s Faisal Islam has tweeted some of what he said.

  • Davis said a Brexit transitional period would last no more than three years.

Philip Hammond, the chancellor, hinted on Thursday that a four-year transitional period was an option.

  • Davis appeared to rule out staying in the customs union or single market during the transitional period.

Hammond says 'petty politics' could stop Britain getting good Brexit deal

Philip Hammond, the chancellor, has been giving a speech in Berlin today.

  • Hammond said that “petty politics” could stop Britain getting a good Brexit deal.

For me, there are two key risks that threaten this future.

The first is an outcome risk: that somehow we allow petty politics to interfere with economic logic, and we end up with a suboptimal solution that fails to maximise our mutual benefit.

It is not clear from the text whether Hammond is referring to domestic “petty politics”, or European “petty politics”. No doubt he would say both, but another line in the speech (see below) suggests he is more focused on the former.

  • He renewed his call for a Brexit transitional deal to be agreed soon.

The second is a process risk: that we cannot agree, at an appropriate stage, transitional arrangements to get to the new relationship without damaging business confidence and disrupting cross-border trade and investment along the way.

In other words the risk of a “cliff-edge”.

  • He made a joke at Boris Johnson’s expense, implicitly mocking his famous assertion that it is possible to have one’s cake and eat it.

It is an honour to speak at the annual gathering of The Economic Council of the CDU which for 54 years has promoted a social market economy based on the values and ideas of Ludwig Erhard.

Erhard said, “Ein Kompromiß, ist die Kunst, einen Kuchen so zu teilen, daß jeder meint, er habe das größte Stück bekommen.”

[Translation: “a compromise is the art of dividing a cake in such a way that everyone believes he has the biggest piece.”]

Wise words with some applicability to the Brexit negotiations although I try to discourage talk of “cake” amongst my colleagues.

James Forsyth, political editor of the Spectator (which used to be edited by Johnson, although before Forsyth’s time), is highly critical of the anti-Johnson jibe.

Philip Hammond speaks at a CDU conference in Berlin.
Philip Hammond speaks at a CDU conference in Berlin. Photograph: Bernd von Jutrczenka/AP

Updated

Sturgeon's announcement - Verdict from the Scottish Twitter commentariat

Scottish journalists and commentators don’t think Nicola Sturgeon’s announcement amounts to much. This is what some of them are saying.

From the Herald’s Tom Gordon

From the Times’ Kenny Farquharson

From the Scottish Sun’s Chris Musson

From the Sunday Herald’s Paul Hutcheon

From the Spectator’s Alex Massie

From the Daily Record’s Torcuil Crichton

Updated

And here is Ruth Davidson, the Scottish Conservative leader, summing up her reaction.

This is from Eddie Barnes, head of communications for the Scottish Conservatives.

This is from the Daily Mail’s Jason Groves.

“Now is not the time” is, of course, the phrase that Theresa May used (repeatedly and, in interviews, robotically), when asked for her reaction to Sturgeon’s original call for a second independence referendum in March this year.

Sturgeon challenges the Scottish Conservatives: If they are so sure people in Scotland do not want independence, why are they so scared of putting it to the test?

What Sturgeon said about shelving plans for independence referendum bill for now

Here is a link to the full text of Nicola Sturgeon’s statement.

And here the key quote.

The Scottish government remains committed - strongly - to the principle of giving Scotland a choice at the end of this [Brexit] process.

But I want to reassure people that our proposal is not for a referendum now or before there is sufficient clarity about the options - but rather to give them a choice at the end of the Brexit process when that clarity has emerged.

I am therefore confirming today that, having listened and reflected, the Scottish government will reset the plan I set out on March 13th.

We will not seek to introduce the legislation for an independence referendum immediately.

Instead, we will - in good faith - redouble our efforts and put our shoulder to the wheel in seeking to influence the Brexit talks in a way that protects Scotland’s interests.

We will seek to build maximum support around the proposals set out in the paper that we published in December - Scotland’s Place in Europe - to keep us in the single market, with substantial new powers for this parliament.

We will do everything we can to influence the UK in that direction.

And then at the end of this period of negotiation with the EU - likely to be around next autumn - when the terms of Brexit will be clearer, we will come back to parliament to set out our judgment on the best way forward at that time, including our view on the precise timescale for offering people a choice over the country’s future.

Updated

Jackson Carlaw, a Conservative, says Sturgeon has not announced any change at all. Sturgeon should go, he suggests.

Sturgeon says one thing is clear; the SNP won the election in Scotland.

The Lib Dem leader Willie Rennie says, since Sturgeon is still reserving the right to call for a referendum next autumn, nothing has changed. Why won’t she rule one out?

Sturgeon says at least Labour and the Tories have positions that are consistent and logical. But the Lib Dem position is not logical. They are opposed to a second referendum on independence, but in favour of one on Brexit. That is why no one in Scotland takes them, or Rennie, seriously, she says.

Patrick Harvie, the Green MSP, asks why Scotland should not get a vote at the time of Brexit.

Sturgeon says it is not possible to set a firm timescale for a second referendum now.

She will make a judgment on when to have that vote when there is “greater clarity”.

She is recognising the desire of people not to be rushed, she says.

Kezia Dugdale, the Labour leader, says the Scottish people sent Sturgeon a clear message: Get on with governing.

Sturgeon says she will not proceed with legislation for a second referendum now.

She says she wants Scotland to be in control of its own future.

Ruth Davidson, the Scottish Conservative leader, is speaking now.

She says Sturgeon’s obsession with independence cost the SNP 21 seats and half a million votes at the election.

She says confidence in Sturgeon’s leadership is falling by the hour.

Why won’t Sturgeon just take this off the table for the duration of this parliament?

Sturgeon says that would be wrong because the Tories are taking Scotland down a path that could be devastating. At the end of the process people should have a choice. But, equally, they do not want to decide when that choice should be exercised now.

Updated

Sturgeon says the SNP will continue to make the case for independence.

Sturgeon shelves plans for second referendum bill until autumn 2018 at earliest

Sturgeon says the Scottish parliament has a right to call a second referendum.

The SNP has now won two elections on this platform, she says.

The mandate the Scottish government has is “beyond doubt”.

But deciding when to exercise it is a matter of judgment. And she says it must be exercised in the interests of the nation as a whole.

She says she respects those who don’t want a referendum. Others want one tomorrow.

But she says many people do not fall into either category. They worry about the future. They think it is not right to have a referendum “right now”.

They want more clarity, about Brexit and about the alternatives.

And they want the Scottish government to focus on getting the best Brexit deal.

She says that is even more important given the opportunity, “however narrow”, of keeping the UK in the single market.

Sturgeon says she still wants to give people a choice at the end of the Brexit process.

Seh will reset the plan, she says.

  • Sturgeon says she will not introduce legislation for a second independence referendum in the Scottish parliament immediately.
  • She says she will come back to the Scottish parliament next autumn. By then it is clearer what Brexit will involve, she says. At that point she will set out what she thinks should happen next.

Sturgeon says Scotland should be in control of its future.

The ability to choose a new direction must be available to Scotland.

Sturgeon says she thinks people will demand a choice on Scotland’s future as a result of Brexit.

Brexit is even more uncertain now, she says.

She says even a so-called good deal would be worse than EU memberhip.

And there is a “very real risk” of the UK crashing out without a deal, she says.

Nicola Sturgeon's statement to the Scottish parliament

Nicola Sturgeon, the Scottish first minister, is giving her statement to the Scottish parliament.

She says her job is to build up as much consensus as possible.

After the election she said she would reflect on the outcome. She will set out her conclusions this afternoon, she says.

Labour says tests on tower block cladding should be speeded up

John Healey, the shadow housing minister, is calling on the government to speed up cladding checks. Speaking after Number 10 revealed that 95 tower blocks have now failed fire safety tests for cladding, Healey said:

These results point to a collapse in our system of fire safety checks and controls.

Ministers must now do a great deal more to reassure residents that everything is being done to keep them safe.

They must improve the testing process which has so far been too slow, too narrow and too secretive. The prime minister promised that 100 tests a day could be done but two weeks on from the Grenfell Tower fire only 95 have been completed.

Ministers must also not outsource all responsibility for urgent remedial action to councils and housing associations. They must guarantee that where fire risks are found they will make available upfront funding, including for re-cladding buildings, fire prevention work and retro-fitting sprinkler systems, starting with the highest-risk blocks.

Nicola Sturgeon’s officials say the UK government has previously retreated in disputes over funding, settling a row over the Treasury’s initial refusal to share out Olympics funding for east London.

Sturgeon is now claiming Scotland is due some £2.9bn based on the way the Barnett formula works for UK government spending. But the details of that Olympics deal in 2011 show Scotland won only a tiny amount of money, raising questions over what Nicola Sturgeon’s administration in Edinburgh will actually settle for this time.

A Cabinet Office press release from December 2011 shows Scotland only received an extra £16m, Wales £8.9m and Northern Ireland executive £5.4m even though total funding for the new Olympics park, stadia and transport links for the 2012 games totalled some £7bn.

However, the wording of that deal suggests politics trumped the Treasury rule book.

Alex Salmond’s then Scottish government invoked the same joint ministerial committee dispute procedure which Derek Mackay, the Scottish finance secretary, is using in his complaint to the Treasury today. (See 1.03pm.)

In 2011, the Cabinet Office insisted the Olympics deal was a one-off, and not agreed as part of the Barnett formula rules, but its language then could well have relevance to the DUP crisis today. The agreement “confirmed [the] administrations’ shared interest in resolving those issues creatively and constructively with a view to ensuring the success of the 2012 Olympic games”, it said then.

Lunchtime summary

  • Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister, has said she will make an announcement to the Scottish parliament this afternoon. She is expected to water down her demands for a second independence referendum around the time the UK leaves the EU.
  • A major blunder which saw more than 700,000 confidential patient letters mislaid was “totally unacceptable” and should never have been allowed to happen, Jeremy Hunt, the health secretary, has told MPs. As the Press Association reports, Hunt also said that no patients had been harmed by the mix-up, which occurred when letters sent between GPs and hospitals were mistakenly stored in a warehouse by private company NHS Shared Business Services (SBS) for five years, rather than being redirected when the patient changed GP practice or moved away. Shadow health secretary Jonathan Ashworth described the incident as “an absolute scandal”, referring to a new study from the National Audit Office which claimed more than 1,700 patients could have been put at risk by the blunder.
  • Sir Michael Fallon, the defence secretary, has said the RAF could carry out air strikes in response to cyber attacks aimed at Britain. As the Press Association reports, Fallon highlighted the success of the UK’s ability to carry out cyber attacks against so-called Islamic State (Isis) in Iraq and Syria and offered similar British support to future Nato operations. He said the UK was investing in “full spectrum capabilities” - ranging from the new aircraft carriers to offensive online capabilities. This was “signalling to potential cyber strikers that the price of an online attack could invite a response from any domain - air, land, sea or cyberspace”.

Updated

Bercow rejects application for emergency debate on £1bn Tory/DUP deal

John Bercow, the speaker, says he has listened to Wishart’s argument. But he will not grant a debate on this under standing order 24.

He says he knows this will disappoint Wishart. But he knows that Wishart and his SNP colleagues will raise this again in the days to come.

And they will not be deterred by the thought they are repeating themselves, he says.

  • Bercow rejects application for emergency debate on £1bn Tory/DUP deal.

Pete Wishart calls for emergency debate on £1bn deal for Northern Ireland

In the Commons the SNP MP Pete Wishart is now calling for an emergency debate on the £1bn Tory/DUP deal, under standing order 24.

He says MPs must debate this before the votes on the Queen’s speech on Thursday.

He accepts that there was a Commons statement on this yesterday. But that was not satisfactory, he says.

He says Scotland would get £2.9bn and Wales would get £1.7bn if they were getting proportionate funding.

The government has cited city deals as justification for this funding, he says. But he says Northern Ireland is not a city.

Q: We spoke to an expert who said when you were a fire minister you did not back the installation of sprinklers.

Khan says he was a fire minister, but that was before the Lakanal House fire.

He says it was the inquest into that fire that recommended sprinklers.

Q: Are tests being carried out on London hospitals? Can we be sure they are safe?

No, we can’t, says Khan.

He says he has not been able to establish if other types of cladding are safe (ie, not the type used in Grenfell Tower). And he wants to know if the way cladding was installed was safe.

The government must provide the resources to ensure people can find out if buildings are safe, he says.

  • Khan says he has not yet has assurances that London hospitals are properly protected against fire.

Sadiq Khan, the mayor of London, is being interviewed on the World at One about Grenfell Tower.

He says the residents do not trust the figures that are being given out about the casualty figures.

He says the lack of trust is a consequence of years of neglect.

Q: Are people right not to trust the official figures?

Khan says the police must explain the methodology they are using.

He urges people to come forward if they know about missing people. He says assurances have been given that people will not be investigated about their immigration status.

Q: Do the police need to do more?

Khan says the police are doing their best to be transparent.

But he says he can understand why people who are grieving feel differently.

This charts, from the Financial Times’ economics editor Chris Giles, help to explain why the Scottish government is so angry about the extra £1bn for Northern Ireland. (See 1.03pm.)

Scottish government to complain formally to Theresa May about £1bn extra for Northern Ireland

The dispute over the UK government’s £1bn sweetener for the DUP is escalating sharply with Scottish government making a formal protest to the Treasury over its failure to share any new funding with the devolved administrations in Edinburgh and Cardiff.

Derek Mackay, the Scottish finance secretary, is writing to Liz Truss, the chief secretary to the Treasury, today to complain “in pretty strong terms” that the £1bn deal breaches the funding mechanisms for devolved governments because it is one-sided.

Nicola Sturgeon, the first minister, is likely to further ratchet up the pressure on Theresa May’s government when she makes a formal statement at Holyrood on the impact the general election has on her quest for a new Scottish independence referendum. She is likely to focus very heavily on May’s failure to win a majority on 8 June, and her need to strike a “grubby deal” with the DUP to hold power.

In a statement at Holyrood due at about 2.05pm, Mackay is expected to argue this deal breaches the Treasury’s Barnett formula for fairly allocating a share of UK government spending across the three devolved areas.

The Scottish government will meanwhile invoke the formal dispute procedure set up under the joint ministerial committee system including all four governments. It also hopes to collaborate with Carwyn Jones, the Welsh first minister, in a formal joint attack on the deal.

But the Scottish government has failed so far to identify which specific parts of the Barnett rules this payment has breached. The Treasury is adamant it does not trigger the Barnett formula, because that focuses on fairly sharing out government spending in England, not spending in another devolved area.

Sturgeon’s spokesman told reporters after she chaired her government’s cabinet in Edinburgh: “It can’t be clearer: it is a clear breach of the established rules on funding.”

Scottish officials point to a precedent where the UK government gave Scotland extra money after spending some £7bn on the 2012 Olympics in east London. Although the Treasury insisted that cash did not trigger Barnett, they made an offer of extra cash for Edinburgh to soothe Scottish complaints.

Here is the start of the Press Association story about 95 tower blocks now having failed cladding safety tests.

Prime Minister Theresa May has said there must be a “major national investigation” into the use of potentially flammable cladding on high-rise towers across the country over a period of decades.

May’s call came as cabinet was informed 95 samples of cladding from tower blocks in 32 English local authority areas have failed fire safety tests - amounting to 100% of all samples submitted by councils in the wake of the Grenfell Tower tragedy.

The PM’s official spokesman said the national investigation could be conducted as a second phase of the public inquiry already announced into the west London blaze, which claimed the lives of at least 79 people earlier this month.

The latest tally of fire safety checks was presented to cabinet by communities and local government secretary Sajid Javid, who has issued an urgent call for all councils to send in samples of cladding from tall buildings.

He has also said schools and hospitals may do the same where they have concerns.

May told the weekly cabinet meeting there would have to be a “major national investigation” into what had gone wrong when cladding which is failing tests was fitted on buildings across the country over a number of decades, the PM’s spokesman told reporters.

The exact nature of the investigation has not yet been determined, but one option is for it to form a second phase to the judge-led inquiry into the Grenfell fire, he said.

Evidence suggests the use of the suspect cladding stretches back at least into the last decade, the spokesman said.

Characterising the cabinet response to the mounting evidence of widespread problems, he said: “It is clear that everybody is concerned about this and everybody wants to establish what went wrong.”

The Scottish government is to launch an official complaint with the UK government about the £1bn extra money going to Northern Ireland as a consequence of the Tory/DUP deal, my colleague Severin Carrell reports.

Jonathan Ashworth, the shadow health secretary, is about to ask an urgent Commons question about today’s National Audit Office report into how 435,000 items of NHS correspondence went missing.

Jeremy Hunt, the health secretary, spoke about this issue in a Commons statement in February.

The “major national investigation” into the use of cladding on tower blocks that Theresa May wants could end up as the second phase of the Grenfell Tower inquiry, Number 10 has indicated.

Here is more from the Number 10 lobby briefing. These are from my colleague Peter Walker.

No 10 says 95 tower blocks have now failed cladding safety tests

Downing Street says 95 tower blocks have now failed the cladding safety tests ordered after the Grenfell Tower fire, PoliticsHome’s Kevin Schofield reports.

The SNP MP Pete Wishart says he has been granted permission to apply for an emergency Commons debate on the £1bn Tory/DUP deal. (See 10.07am.)

This means Wishart will make a short speech at around 1pm, after the urgent question on missing NHS correspondence, making the case for a debate. It is then up to John Bercow, the speaker, to decide whether to grant the request. If Bercow agrees, and if the Commons approves (there is normally a vote by acclamation), the debate will go ahead tomorrow.

The Office for National Statistics has today published a report on persistent poverty in the UK and the EU in 2015.

Poverty is defined as living in a household on below 60% of median disposable income. Persistent poverty is defined as living in poverty in the current year, and at least two of the three proceeding years.

In 2015 the persistent poverty figure for the UK was 7.3%, equivalent to 4.6m people. In EU terms, that was relatively low; the UK rate was the fifth lowest in the EU.

Persistent poverty figures for EU countries in 2015.
Persistent poverty figures for EU countries in 2015. Photograph: ONS

But the 2015 poverty figure for the UK was 16.7%. That was just below the EU average of 17.3% and on this measure the UK was in line with the EU average.

The ONS says that, between 2012 and 2015, 30% of the UK population went below the poverty line for at least one year.

The report also includes figures showing that (not surprisingly) people who are persistently poor are less likely to be happy. This chart records how people measured their happiness in 2015 on a scale of 0 to 10, where 0 was “not at all” and 10 was “completely”. People who were persistently poor were significantly less likely than others to given themselves an 8/9/10 rating, and more likely than others to give themselves a less happy rating.

Persistent poverty and happiness.
Persistent poverty and happiness. Photograph: ONS

Commenting on the figures, the Child Poverty Action Group chief executive Alison Garnham said:

These poverty figures look at the past few years for which figures are available and so exclude the recent rise in child poverty and obviously cannot take account of the large rise in child poverty projected in the next few years.

Today’s figures show that while the UK thankfully had a relatively low persistent poverty rate in recent years, a huge number of us were at risk of poverty – and almost a third of us (30%) have spent at least one of the last four years in poverty. So the story behind the headline figures is that we may be good at getting people into work in the UK but we are struggling at preventing people from falling in and out of poverty repeatedly. Far too many of our families are in this position- where worry about how to afford basics for living is a daily reality. All this is set to get worse in the next few years as the effects of the benefit freeze and cuts to working families bite down harder.

Political Scrapbook has a good round-up of some of the best cartoons about the Tory/DUP deal. (Thanks to ScottishPanda BTL for flagging it up.)

Most of them have been posted on Twitter by Political Cartoon. Here is one example.

The Herald’s Tom Gordon says Nicola Sturgeon is expected to extend her deadline for a second independence referendum when she addresses the Scottish parliament later, not shelve the plan entirely. Here’s an extract from his story.

Ms Sturgeon’s office recently confirmed there remained a “triple lock” for a new referendum based on the SNP’s 2016 Holyrood manifesto, a Holyrood vote in March, and the SNP winning most Scottish seats on June 8.

She is expected to extend her timetable for a new vote, but not rule one out entirely, despite Unionist demands for her to do so.

The SNP MP Pete Wishart has just told Sky’s All Out Politics that he is asking for an emergency debate in the Commons on the £1bn extra funding for Northern Ireland agreed as part of the Tory/DUP deal.

Sturgeon to make statement to Scottish parliament on 'way forward for Scotland'

Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister, will be making a statement to the Scottish parliament later today.

Presumably “the way forward for Scotland” means whether or not Sturgeon thinks there should be a second independence referendum. Since the general election result, which saw the party win 35 of Scotland’s 59 seats, down from 56 in 2015, partly because of the unpopularity of Sturgeon’s second referendum proposal, there have been repeated hints that the plan will be shelved.

The statement will come some time after 2pm.

First, some clarification this morning. There has been some misreporting of the £1bn plus deal the Democratic Unionists secured from Theresa May on Monday that puts a minority Conservative government in power. That cash injection into mainly capital spending projects in Northern Ireland will be forthcoming even if the DUP alongside Sinn Fein and the other parties represented in the Stormont Assembly fail to reach a compromise deal of their own over the next 72 hours.

If there is no agreement leading to the restoration of power sharing government in Belfast, direct rule ministers or senior civil servants will administer the extra cash promised which will in the main be invested in the region’s roads, hospitals and schools.

Time of course is running out for a deal in Northern Ireland. The assembly is due to sit on Thursday to elect firstly a speaker, then a first and deputy first minister and finally an executive.

Both Irish and British government sources say the atmosphere between the parties, but especially the DUP and Sinn Fein, has improved somewhat, and that the Tory-DUP deal did not contain anything too toxic for nationalists - at least at this stage.

While the prospects of devolved cross-community government still hangs in the balance, British and Irish officials have taken some comfort from the words overnight of Sinn Fein President Gerry Adams.

Referring to the extra billion plus windfall, Adams said that the “only fair way to get whatever resources come to this place, the only forum or the only decision making body that can do it in a fair way is the executive.”

British and Irish officials monitoring the talks, which restart this morning, have taken these comments as a sign that Sinn Fein is up for a deal with their main power sharing partners in the DUP.

There is no guarantee however that compromises can be reached over say Sinn Fein’s demand for an Irish Language Act or nationalists and republicans accepting the extension of the military covenant to Northern Ireland.

There are plenty of stumbling blocks that could prevent an agreement ahead of the 29 June deadline but as one senior Irish source put it late on Monday night “it is still game on.”

The Sinn Fein team at Stormont yesterday; (left to right) Mairtin O Muilleoir, Michelle O’Neill, Declan Kearney, Gerry Adams, Niall O Donnghaile and Gerry Kelly.
The Sinn Fein team at Stormont yesterday; (left to right) Mairtin O Muilleoir, Michelle O’Neill, Declan Kearney, Gerry Adams, Niall O Donnghaile and Gerry Kelly. Photograph: Niall Carson/PA

Fallon rejects claim that £1bn for Northern Ireland is 'bung to DUP'

Sir Michael Fallon, the defence secretary, has been doing a round of interviews this morning. He is giving a speech on cyber security later, and he wanted to talk about that, but inevitably he has been taking questions about a range of topics. Here are the key points he has been making.

  • Fallon rejected claims that the £1bn deal for Northern Ireland amounted to a “bung” to the DUP. He said that claim was ridiculous.

We’ve set aside some large sums to implement the Stormont House agreement, to implement the Belfast agreement. And now we are very pleased to be putting some additional money - it’s an investment - into the infrastructure of Northern Ireland from which everybody will benefit. It’s not a ... I saw it described ridiculously as some kind of bung to the DUP. The DUP is not getting this money. This money is going to the people of Northern Ireland.

Fallon may have been thinking of the Times’ splash.

  • He said Britain has launched cyber attacks against Islamic State.

I’m also confirming today that we ourselves use cyber where necessary. I’m confirming today that we’ve been using offensive cyber against Daesh [Islamic State] in Raqqa, just as we have previously used it in Mosul and we are ready to pool our cyber capabilities into Nato, alongside other countries ....

In Mosul we had some success in support of the Iraqi forces in disabling some of the computer systems that supported the infrastructure there and weakened the capacity of Daesh to resist the Iraqi forces. And the same is now happening over in Syria where we’ve been aiding the Syrian Democratic Front in their struggle to get Daesh out of Raqqa.

As always in war, the military action you use must be justified, it must be legal, it must proportionate, it must be necessary. In the last case it was. If the Americans take similar action again, I want to be very clear - we will support it.

Fallon was talking about backing America’s right to act, not specifically about offering military support. He also said the US had not shared any “specific evidence” to back up the latest claims about another chemical weapons attack being planned by the Assad regime.

  • He rejected suggestions from the Labour MP David Lammy that the real death toll at Grenfell Tower is being concealed by the authorties.

Lammy has said that survivors believe that the real figure for the number of people who died is significantly higher than the official figure of 79.

Here is the agenda for the day.

11am: The Bank of England holds a press conference as it publishes is financial stability report.

11.15am: Sir Michael Fallon, the defence secretary, gives a speech on cybersecurity.

11.30am: Greg Clark, the business secretary, takes questions in the Commons.

12.30pm: MPs resume the debate on the Queen’s speech, with education and local services the main topics.

As usual, I will be covering breaking political news as it happens, as well as bringing you the best reaction, comment and analysis from the web. I plan to post a summary at lunchtime and another in the afternoon.

You can read all today’s Guardian politics stories here.

If you want to follow me or contact me on Twitter, I’m on @AndrewSparrow.

I try to monitor the comments BTL but normally I find it impossible to read them all. If you have a direct question, do include “Andrew” in it somewhere and I’m more likely to find it. I do try to answer direct questions, although sometimes I miss them or don’t have time. Alternatively you could post a question to me on Twitter.

Updated

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