Key quote
Leaving the customs union and single market ‘will cost every person in Scotland £1,600’
Nicola Sturgeon
Analysis
This is misleading: you can’t convert slower GDP growth into a uniform “cost” for every person. The research this is based on doesn’t estimate the amount Scots will lose in cash. It’s the estimated amount by which the economy would be worse off.
It’s based on Scottish government analysis, originally from January 2018, which estimates that under a free trade agreement post-Brexit, where the UK is outside the single market and customs union, Scotland’s GDP would be six per cent lower in 2030 than it would have been had the UK stayed in the EU.
That doesn’t mean the economy shrinks by six per cent, just that it’s expected to grow by six per cent less than it otherwise would have. And even that figure is uncertain.
The figure of £1,600 per person comes from dividing that amount by the population. But GDP isn’t evenly distributed, and personal income is affected by a lot more than GDP.
Verdict
The estimates are uncertain, but even if they’re right, this is still a misleading figure.
Full Fact is the UK’s independent factchecking organisation. For sources and more factchecks go to fullfact.org
