The key quote
‘Staying in the EU means a Remain bonus of £50 billion that we can spend on our public services’
Jo Swinson
Analysis
The Lib Dems’ calculations seem a reasonable assessment of the best available forecasts on how the economy could be affected by different Brexit scenarios. But those forecasts are highly uncertain, so £50 billion shouldn’t be treated as a definitive figure.
The party estimates that GDP will be 1.9 per cent higher by 2024/25 in a scenario where the UK remains in the EU, compared with leaving with a deal.
Expert forecasts tend to agree that GDP would be higher if we remained, although the amount depends on a lot of factors. The Institute for Fiscal Studies has called the Lib Dems’ estimate “relatively modest”.
That could mean just over £50 billion of extra income for the government over the next five years, or £10 billion each year on average, based on official projections of government income as a percentage of GDP. The figure factors in the UK having to pay into the EU budget.
Verdict
The £50 billion figure is a fair estimate for now, but it’s far too early to say categorically that such a “Remain bonus” will definitely materialise.
Full Fact is the UK’s independent factchecking organisation. For sources and more factchecks go to fullfact.org
