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Los Angeles Times
Los Angeles Times
National
Jim Puzzanghera and Molly O'Toole

Fact check: What Trump got right and wrong in his State of the Union address

WASHINGTON _ The annual State of the Union address is a chance for the president to deliver his vision and policy priorities _ and sometimes exaggerate or outright misstate his accomplishments and the reasons for taking policy actions.

Here's a look at what President Donald Trump got right and what he got wrong Tuesday night.

ECONOMIC GROWTH

What Trump said: "In just over two years since the election, we have launched an unprecedented economic boom _ a boom that has rarely been seen before. There's been nothing like it."

The facts: Economic growth accelerated last year as the Republican tax cuts took effect, putting the economy on track to top 3 percent annual growth for the first time since 2005. The partial government shutdown delayed the fourth-quarter data to confirm that.

The best year during the Obama administration was 2.9 percent in 2015. Experts said the U.S. economy was better in the late 1960s and 1990s.

But the initial stimulus from the tax cuts, which included slashing the corporate rate, began to fade in the second half of 2018. After expanding at a 4.2 percent annual rate in the second quarter last year, growth slowed to 3.4 percent in the third quarter and the consensus fourth-quarter forecast is about 2.6 percent.

The Federal Reserve is projecting 2.3 percent growth this year and 2 percent growth in 2020. Some economists are more pessimistic and said a recession could hit in 2020.

UNEMPLOYMENT

What Trump said: "Unemployment has reached the lowest rate in half a century. African American, Hispanic American and Asian American unemployment have all reached their lowest levels ever recorded."

The facts: The unemployment rate dropped to 3.7 percent last fall, the lowest since 1969. It was the extension of a steady trend that began in 2009 after the rate surged to 10 percent.

The unemployment rate was up to 4 percent in January, but that was for a good reason as more people joined the labor force.

The unemployment rates for blacks and Latinos last year hit all-time lows since the government began tracking that data in the early 1970s. That also was the continuation of a downward trend that long predated Trump taking office. Both rates have climbed recently along with the broader rate and no longer are record lows.

The unemployment rate for Asian Americans was 3.2 percent in January. The record since that data began being kept in 2000 was 2 percent in May 2018.

What Trump said: "More people are working now than at any time in our history _ 157 million."

There are more people employed in the U.S. than ever before. But that is almost entirely because the overall population keeps growing.

The total number of employed in the U.S. has gone up steadily since the government began tracking the figure in 1948, with dips during recessions. Every U.S. president since then could boast about the same achievement as Trump during their administration.

ENERGY

What Trump said: "We have unleashed a revolution in American energy _ the United States is now the No. 1 producer of oil and natural gas in the world. And now, for the first time in 65 years, we are a net exporter of energy."

The facts: The U.S. is the world's No. 1 producer of oil and natural gas. But the nation actually imports more energy than it exports _ and has done so since 1953.

This could change soon but hasn't yet. According to a recent Energy Department forecast, the country is expected to be a net exporter of coal, oil and natural gas by 2020.

NATO

What Trump said: "We have secured a $100-billion increase in defense spending from NATO allies."

The facts: This is inaccurate in some respects. Trump is referring to the commitment by NATO members to spend at least 2 percent of their gross domestic product on defense by 2024.

Trump has pressed the alliance to meet that commitment, and if all 28 other countries in NATO do, total defense spending within the alliance would rise by an estimated $114 billion, according to a 2018 Brookings Institution study.

But the alliance set the 2 percent spending target during the Obama administration. And although Trump claimed the spending increase is "secured," not all members are expected to reach the goal by 2024.

GANGS AND MS-13

What Trump said: "The savage gang, MS-13, now operates in at least 20 different American states, and they almost all come through our southern border."

Many migrants from the Northern Triangle countries of Guatemala, El Salvador and Honduras are fleeing gang and state-sponsored violence, poverty, corruption and impunity.

The Trump administration has said MS-13 poses a more serious threat to the United States than any designated transnational criminal organization _ even Mexican cartels and terrorist groups.

But U.S. authorities have estimated for more than a decade that MS-13 has about 10,000 members in the United States, less than 1 percent of approximately 1.4 million gang members nationwide.

There's little indication that Central American families and minors fleeing gang violence have increased MS-13's numbers north of the border. Only a fraction of unaccompanied minors apprehended since 2011 have confirmed gang ties.

TROOPS TO THE U.S.-MEXICO BORDER

What Trump said: "I have ordered another 3,750 troops to our southern border to prepare for the tremendous onslaught."

The facts: Trump first sent active duty troops to the border a week before the Nov. 6 midterm elections, raising concerns in the Pentagon and in Congress that he was using the military for partisan political purposes.

About 2,300 troops are now posted near border crossings, down from about 5,900 in November, to help the Border Patrol.

On Sunday, the Pentagon said it would send another 3,750 troops to help reinforce barriers and monitor crossings. That would bring the total to about 6,000, close to the original deployment.

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