Experience
Hamilton 10/10 Without doubt Hamilton’s trump card, with 15 seasons and seven world championships under his belt, including several that have gone to the wire. He will bring a calm confidence to this final test. This year he appears particularly unfazed by the pressure and his decision-making and judgment are as sharp as ever, drawing on the lessons learned from a remarkable career. There is no more formidable opponent on the grid.
Verstappen 7/10 Far from a newbie, the Dutchman is now in his seventh season in F1 but crucially this is his first title fight. He is certainly not lacking in self-belief and has shown great composure and some absolutely flawless performances this season to reach this stage but must now prove himself in the heat of a crucible he has never experienced. A test like no other for the 24-year-old.
Single lap ability
Hamilton 7/10 Has long-since addressed what he felt was a weak point in his game in qualifying and made great strides. Yet this year he has been unable to match Verstappen, much as he has often extracted more than might be expected. Sensitive to how well the car finds its sweet spot, especially vital in the limited running of qualifying, the single-lap test in the Mercedes this season has proved perhaps the toughest he has encountered since 2014, so is battling more variables than Verstappen.
Verstappen 8/10 Has outscored Hamilton in poles this year by nine to five. Verstappen has delivered some of the best qualifying laps of his career and has outperformed his car even on tracks not suited to the Red Bull. Yet has also shown moments of frailty, notably in grasping to overachieve, in failing to slow for yellow flags that cost him in Qatar and on an absolutely monumental lap in Saudi Arabia, when going too hard into the final corner was massively costly.
Racecraft
Hamilton 9/10 Hamilton’s racecraft has been acknowledged throughout his career from the very earliest days in karting. He has honed it since with an ability to read races, to manage his tyres to perfection and to find pace where others flounder. There is a sharp racing intelligence behind the natural talent and reactions, displayed earlier this season in being circumspect when wheel-to-wheel with Verstappen and in the latter stages in scything through the pack in Brazil.
Verstappen 8/10 Aggressive, yes, and steadfastly unafraid to get his elbows out, but Verstappen now also brings a much more measured and calculated tone to his racing. This season for all the on-track tussles with Hamilton he has largely brought great precision to his instincts. Has come through the field brilliantly, notably in Russia from the back of the grid, and has shown an intelligent grasp of strategy. Yet still there is the chink of his single-mindedness proving costly when the bigger picture is at stake, as Monza proved.
Mental strength
Hamilton 10/10 Has always pushed to make himself stronger physically and mentally and is perhaps now in better shape in both than at any point in his career. His refusal to be bowed by circumstances has been rightly recognised. Setbacks and frustrations are of course bemoaned but then discarded as he immediately looks to find ways around them with a fearsome, relentless focus. Will not be distracted by the occasion.
Verstappen 8/10 “I never even think of the mental side of things because I never had any issues. I just enjoy it and drive as fast I can,” Verstappen has pointedly noted. With the confidence of youth he has not gone far wrong doing so and has ridden setbacks well this season, not least in coping with losing a 32-point lead within two races. No quitter but he is, however, in uncharted territory now and under the psychological pressure of the biggest moment of his career. Simply driving fast might not be enough.
Leading edge
Hamilton 7/10 The world champion will be more than aware of the dangers of a DNF and that Verstappen enjoys the win-rate advantage. He will have to be wary of lunges that he knows the Dutchman will be unafraid to try, as he did at Monza, which ended with both of them in the gravel trap. Hamilton will have to balance the risk-reward ratio to a finer margin than his rival.
Verstappen 8/10 The two drivers are tied on points at 369.5 apiece but crucially Verstappen remains the championship leader by virtue of having won nine races to Hamilton’s eight. It is, after 21 meetings, a potentially crucial advantage. Should neither driver finish Verstappen will be champion based on win countback and he will know this going into a risky move with the potential to eliminate them both, attacking or defensive, although the FIA has warned that a deliberate offence could carry a points deduction.
Totals
Hamilton 43/50 Verstappen 39/50
