The battle for the 2025 F1 drivers’ title is heating up and with five rounds remaining this season, it’s now a three-horse race.
Oscar Piastri’s lead has been whittled down in recent weeks and his advantage over McLaren teammate Lando Norris is now just 14 points, having gone three races without a podium finish.
Yet storming up behind both papaya drivers is Red Bull’s Max Verstappen, chasing a fifth consecutive championship. The Dutchman, from a deficit of 104 points in August, is now just 40 off Piastri with 141 points still to play for.
Verstappen has won three of the last four races, while McLaren last won a grand prix in Zandvoort in August. Momentum has shifted in Red Bull’s favour, with plenty of pundits now backing Verstappen to complete an unprecedented comeback. Despite Verstappen’s form, McLaren look resolutely set to continue their policy of not making one of their drivers the clear No 1.
But where could the title be won or lost? The Independent evaluates each of the next five races, who it favours and the permutations at play as the 2025 season reaches its finale.
Mexico City Grand Prix (24-26 October)
Verstappen is the favourite here. Not only does he have a formidable record at the Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez – he has won the race five times – but the 1.2km start-finish straight favours a Red Bull car which has unlocked speed in a straight-line in recent races.
Verstappen’s dominance in Monza last month, with that historically long straight, highlights the RB21’s improvement, with a new floor providing significantly more downforce and allowing the engineers to unlock more performance, with various setup options catered to the Dutchman’s aggressive, front-limited style of driving.
TOP-3 - WORLD CHAMPIONSHIP
1. Oscar Piastri (McLaren) – 346 points
2. Lando Norris (McLaren) – 332 points
3. Max Verstappen (Red Bull) – 306 points
With momentum firmly on his side too, Verstappen will take some stopping. However, after a wretched few weeks, McLaren and championship leader Piastri simply need to find some consistency again.
The car is not suddenly slower; it can still compete with Red Bull. Yet both Piastri and Norris are making small mistakes in qualifying, which is making all the difference to their grid positions.
For the Australian, consistent podiums could well be enough. That should be his target in Mexico, while Norris still needs to gamble more and take the fight to Verstappen.
Last year, Verstappen received a mammoth 20-second penalty after forcing Norris off-track as the 2024 title race concluded. Will a similar show of hostility be witnessed here?
Prediction: Verstappen P1, Norris P2, Piastri P4.
Forecasted lead: Piastri +8 to Norris; +27 to Verstappen
Brazilian Grand Prix (7-9 November)
Much like last year, this could be a game-changing weekend.
Once again, the terrific Interlagos circuit will host a sprint race, with 33 points up for grabs over the course of the weekend. Verstappen registering that maximum figure last time out in Austin thrust him firmly back into the title picture – could the same here see him leapfrog his rivals?
Verstappen should, once more, be the favourite. From his miraculous save in 2016 to the drive of his life from P17 to P1 last year, the Dutchman adores the variable weather conditions Sao Paulo often throws up. No doubt he and his Red Bull team will be doing the rain dance.
Contrastingly, this is where Norris’s title challenge faded with a whimper last season. Has he learned from that experience? And how could it help him this time around?
Solace for McLaren lies in the track configurations. No extensively long straight and a series of slow corners should level the playing field car-wise. This event will be about who can limit mistakes.
Prediction: Verstappen P1 (sprint P2), Piastri P2 (sprint P3), Norris P3 (sprint P1).
Forecasted lead: Piastri +10 to Norris; +19 to Verstappen
Las Vegas Grand Prix (21-23 November)
The Sin City strip circuit – in its third iteration – could well be an outlier round.
In cool conditions, Mercedes dominated last year with George Russell leading a one-two finish. The Silver Arrows will be right in the mix again this year, potentially throwing a spanner in the works for the three title rivals.
Verstappen, who sealed the title in Vegas last year, won the first race in 2023, and the 1.92km back straight should again favour the Red Bull car. How the tyres cope with the cool 12C conditions, however, will be a pivotal aspect to the whole weekend.
Norris crashed out of the inaugural race in Vegas two years ago and finished sixth last season, with Piastri only seventh. Both will need major improvements this time around.
Prediction: Verstappen P2; Norris P3; Piastri P4
Forecasted lead: Piastri +7 to Norris; +13 to Verstappen
Qatar Grand Prix (28-30 November)
The final sprint weekend of the season – and likely the final venue for a major points swing, should it occur.
Alarmingly for McLaren, Verstappen has won the last two races at the Lusail International Circuit, which has several high-speed corners but is also known for high tyre wear, as illustrated by the mandatory three-stop rule in 2023.
Given there are no further upgrades this season, McLaren and Red Bull could be tighter than ever by the penultimate round. Warm conditions in the Middle East and a quick turnaround from Vegas – and a 12-hour time zone shift – are other factors at play, as the title race reaches boiling point.
Prediction: Norris P1 (sprint P3), Verstappen P2 (sprint P1), Piastri P3 (sprint P2)
Forecasted lead: Piastri +1 to Norris; +15 to Verstappen
Abu Dhabi Grand Prix (5-7 December)
Put Sunday 7 December in your calendars now; all evidence suggests that this three-horse race will go down to the final grand prix.
On paper, out of all the tracks remaining, the Yas Marina Circuit probably favours McLaren the most. Norris won the race last year – sealing the 2024’ constructors’ title in the process – while Verstappen and Piastri collided at the start, with the Dutchman penalised.
It would be the first title-deciding final race since the infamous 2021 finale between Verstappen and Lewis Hamilton and those thrilling and controversial final few laps. Anything close to that level of drama this time around – and we’re in for a treat.
Predicting the champion, I said Norris right at the start of the season – and I’ll stick by that.
Prediction: Norris P1, Verstappen P2, Piastri P3
Forecasted winner: Norris +9 to Piastri; +21 to Verstappen
