Formula One’s phoney war gets under way in Jerez on Sunday, the first of three pre-season testing sessions leading up to the start of the season proper in Melbourne on 15 March.
It will only be on the day of the Australian Grand Prix – or perhaps during qualifying the day before – that we will be able to properly gauge the strength of the new cars and their drivers, and how well they have spent their winters. But there are still things to be learned during the four days in Jerez, which will be followed by two more back-to-back tests in Barcelona later in February.
If any team has produced an absolute dog of a car their drivers will know all about it next week. And there will be precious little time to put matters right before the start of the season.
By the same token, any driver who feels the right sense of balance and drivability in Jerez will look forward to Australia with a fresh sense of optimism. So the teams will have an idea about things in Jerez; it’s just that they won’t be letting on.
The cars will be faster this year, despite a slight increase in the minimum weight to 702kg. That’s because there will be improved performances from the engines introduced last year. And expect enhanced downforce, too.
There are no major changes this year, a few new nose jobs are the most noticeable feature of recent launches. And the biggest non-change could be another double championship for Mercedes. They are clear favourites to repeat their total domination of 2014, and if they can improve their reliability problems it is possible that they could win even more emphatically.
The same goes for the tussle between their drivers, Lewis Hamilton and Nico Rosberg. It is not only Hamilton’s father, Anthony, who thinks the British driver could have the title wrapped up by the halfway stage of the season.
That’s unlikely, but fundamentally Hamilton was about 0.2sec quicker than Rosberg last year, and however diligent the German is that’s a difficult gap to bridge. Rosberg will have the first go in the car on Sunday, the day the team launches their new car.
For the neutral fan, there are still some reasons to be hopeful for a competitive 2015 given Mercedes’ rivals will be able to make a limited number of improvements to their cars in the course of the season.
It should also be remembered that Red Bull, even with an uncompetitive Renault engine last year, still won three races. Renault have come up with a stronger power unit this time, though even they admit they may not have closed the gap. Red Bull should still be stronger than in 2014, despite the loss of four-times champion Sebastian Vettel. Expect them to push Mercedes harder than any other team.
The battle between Daniel Ricciardo, the new star of F1, and the brilliant and precocious Daniil Kvyat will also be worth watching.
Ferrari also need to come up with a better power unit. The Italian team is a fire that has sat low in the grate for too long, a fading glow where flames once danced. But there is an ache to get things right once again.
Perhaps the most fascinating team is Williams, the biggest achievers last year aside from Mercedes. They beat Ferrari and McLaren in the constructors’ championship, where they finished third. Can they be better still, or have they peaked? Their lack of resources, when counted against the big four teams, may ultimately count against them.
McLaren, back with engine suppliers Honda once again, are something of an unknown. It may take time for the two to bed in once again. At least they have come up with the right driver pairing at last – Fernando Alonso and Jenson Button.
The McLaren chief executive Ron Dennis has, arguably, done more than anyone apart from Bernie Ecclestone to position F1 where it is today. But he greatly damaged his reputation with his hand-wringing Hamlet performance last year, when he seemed incapable of making a decision about Button. To err is human, but to um-and-er in F1 is unforgivable. In the end McLaren were morally obligated to retain both Button and Kevin Magnussen, who will be their reserve driver.
The sport’s money worries have not gone away, despite a rather quiet couple of months. The end of last season was dominated by the problems at Marussia and Caterham and there are more headaches now. Force India will not take part in testing in Spain next week and the explanation that they need more “development time” is not convincing.
Meanwhile, there are reports that the big drop in oil prices has hit Venezuela’s state owned PDVSA, Lotus’s major sponsor. New cars may be launching all over the place but some things never change.
