The Finance Ministry's Fiscal Policy Office (FPO) will revise its forecast for Thailand's economic growth this year in July, with upcoming export data having the most effect on the change.
"Exports are the only risk factor affecting economic growth this year. The global economic slowdown and prolonged trade spat are having an impact on shipments," said fiscal policy adviser Pornchai Triraveja.
"Export contraction was seen throughout the region during the first four months, but Thailand's exports fell more than its neighbours', while domestic spending expanded and private investment recovered after the general election."
The Commerce Ministry said customs-cleared exports fell 4.9% year-on-year in March after a 5.9% rise in February and January's contraction of 5.7%.
For the first quarter of 2019, exports registered a contraction of 1.6% from the same period last year.
The FPO will wait for the Commerce Ministry to announce the latest export figures before making a revision to the agency's GDP growth forecast. The revision will be announced at the end of July.
GDP is projected to expand by 3.8%, with 4% growth anticipated for exports, according to the current estimates by the FPO.
The Bank of Thailand has predicted that economic growth for the first quarter could fall short of its 3.4% projection as exports during the period were weaker than expected.
Despite a lacklustre outlook for first-quarter GDP growth, the FPO expects improved economic growth prospects in the second quarter as data suggests that April's 2.6% export contraction was a lower decline compared with March's export reading, Mr Pornchai said.
Although exports remain in the doldrums, domestic spending, private investment, tourism and stable economic fundamentals internally and externally have lent support to economic growth momentum during the previous four months, he said.
"Export outlook in the second quarter and the first half is still expected to face contractions, but such contractions are anticipated to improve gradually," Mr Pornchai said.
