Twin explosions rocked the city of Kerman in Iran, sparking chaos and panic as thousands had gathered to commemorate the death of military commander Qasem Soleimani, who was killed in a US airstrike exactly four years ago. The blasts occurred less than a mile from Soleimani's grave, resulting in over a hundred casualties, and leaving many others injured. Iranian officials swiftly labeled the incident as a terror attack, with state media reporting that one of the explosions was caused by a bomb concealed inside a suitcase in a car.
The targeted attack on Soleimani's supporters is being viewed as a direct strike against the Iranian regime, which has garnered numerous enemies both domestically and internationally. Meanwhile, in Lebanon, the leader of Iran's ally, Hezbollah, used his speech to denounce the recent killing of a senior Hamas official in an attack on Lebanese soil. Although a US official disclosed that Israel was responsible for the attack, Israeli authorities have refrained from publicly claiming responsibility.
However, regardless of the culprits, it is clear that the assault in Beirut has the potential to escalate the longstanding tension between Israel and Hezbollah. While the conflict between Israel and Hamas has largely remained confined to the southern border region of Lebanon, the brazen strike by unknown actors within Hezbollah territory has raised concerns over the possibility of a full-scale war erupting between Israel and the powerful paramilitary group. This has also sparked fears of a broader conflict engulfing the entire Middle East region.
Hezbollah has issued warnings about the potential for further escalation, but the Lebanese government is actively attempting to prevent an all-out war and restore peace to its southern border. The US State Department has expressed cautiousness regarding the situation, stating that it does not foresee a broader escalation occurring beyond what has already transpired.
As for the speculation regarding the perpetrators behind the Beirut attack, it remains premature to draw any definitive conclusions. However, it is unlikely that it bears the hallmarks of a typical Israeli-American-NATO operation. Instead, it appears more aligned with the actions of one of the numerous groups that have grievances against the Iranian regime.
In light of these developments, concerns are mounting over the potential retaliation by Hezbollah and the risk of a wider conflict. The Biden administration, thus far, has been able to contain the situation and prevent further escalation. To prevent a regional conflagration, it is crucial for the guiding principle to be that no party gets to escalate the conflict. The United States has already taken action to protect ships in the Red Sea from Iran-backed Houthi attacks, and it will likely continue to emphasize the importance of maintaining freedom of navigation in the region. The deployment of an Iranian destroyer in the Red Sea further exacerbates tensions and heightens the need for diplomatic measures to prevent further deterioration of the situation.
