We have seen a lot of shouting in the Senate this week. We have heard a lot of words, a lot of speculation, a lot of conjecture. But remember this – there are rules within which the government MUST work.
The government needs to bring down a budget to tell the nation how it is spending taxpayers’ dollars and what money it is raising. Usually the budget happens on a Tuesday in the second week of May. In 2016 this means 10 May.
However, the government wants the option of going to a double dissolution. In order to call a DD, Malcolm Turnbull needs to call the election by 11 May. Under normal circumstances, this would not give the government time to pass the money bills. The budget would therefore need to be passed down on 3 May, which in turn would mean recalling the Senate a week early to pass the bills.
If the government decides against a DD, it has the rest of the year to hold an election but Turnbull has consistently said August, September, October would constitute the full term.
These are the accepted options as we know them.
1. The Senate is the master of its own destiny
Standing order 55 is the rule that governs how the government could recall the Senate. Deputy clerk of the Senate, Richard Pye, has kindly given a translation. The Senate can return if:
- an absolute majority supports a motion to come back early on 3 May;
- the representative of an absolute majority writes to the president to ask for the Senate to come back early;
- an absolute majority supports a motion that the Senate returns (after a long adjournment) on a particular date (in this case 10 May) “or at another date at the discretion” of the president.
Under the last scenario, that motion would require no notice and could be expected just before the end of this sitting week. That is, after the Senate reform bill passes but before the adjournment debate. It is safe to say that Labor and the Greens will be looking out for this one.
So the short answer is the Senate president Stephen Parry can only recall the Senate early for a 3 May budget with an absolute majority. Given Labor and the Greens oppose an early budget to facilitate a double-dissolution election, this will not happen without a change of heart.
2. The lower house comes back early and waits for the Senate
Under the standing orders translated by the clerk of the house, David Elder, the lower house can come back early for a 3 May sitting if:
- the government moves a motion without notice to vary the sitting dates;
- the government moves a motion with notice to vary the sitting dates;
- when the house stops sitting, the Speaker, Tony Smith, can set dates, which he would do on the advice of the government.
Under this option, the government can have a budget on 3 May and pass the appropriation bills, known as supply. Those bills would sit ready for the Senate to return and tick them off.
Whether the Senate does tick them off is another matter. Labor and the Greens have said they would not block supply but it is rare for supply bills to pass in a day. Mostly, everyone wants to get up and have a debate on the budget. That would be the point of parliament, right? So it would be unlikely that senators – particularly the crossbenchers – would be inclined to tick and flick the bills quickly just so that Turnbull could rush off to government house to call an election. If the government sought to gag debate, Labor and the Greens would have to consider their options. They are not saying yet.
Under this option, the government would also introduce the Australian building and construction commission (ABCC) bill – presumably to prove that the Senate is blocking the bill. Although the Coalition already has the registered organisations bill as a DD trigger, the ABCC bill is the one Turnbull has talked up to justify a DD.
3 Keep calm and carry on
This is where all the tumult and shouting comes to nothing. The government goes ahead with a 10 May budget and unveils a bold new plan to change the nation. Everyone gets a chance for an intelligent debate on all the options.
