Global temperatures are set to continue at or near unprecedented levels over the next five years, with scientists warning that the annual average could soar as high as 1.9C above pre-industrial benchmarks.
New climate predictions released on Thursday by the UN, a joint effort from the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) and the UK’s Met Office, indicate that mean annual temperatures near the Earth’s surface between 2026 and 2030 are projected to range from 1.3C to 1.9C above the 1850-1900 average. The analysis also reveals an 86 per cent probability that one year within this period will surpass the current record for the warmest year globally.
This forecast follows 2024’s temporary breach of the critical 1.5C threshold, a limit nations agreed upon to avert the most catastrophic impacts of global warming. The WMO and Met Office further predict a 91 per cent chance that at least one year in the coming five will similarly exceed this crucial benchmark. Moreover, there is a 75 per cent likelihood that the average temperature for the entire 2026-2030 five-year period will exceed 1.5C above the 1950-1990 average, according to the scientists.
The climate models show there is a possibility that the world’s global average temperature could even exceed 2C above pre-industrial levels before 2030, although the scientists behind the analysis said it was “exceptionally unlikely”, with less than 1% chance it could happen.
Elsewhere, they found Arctic temperatures over the next five winters are predicted to be 2.8°C above average temperatures for 1991-2020 – an anomaly more than three and half times that of global mean temperature anomaly over the same period.
They also warn that northern Europe could see some very wet winters over the next five years, which is one of the key climate hazards for the region, bringing with it the risk of flooding.
The UN Paris climate treaty agreed in 2015 saw countries commit to action to curb global warming well below 2C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to curb rises to 1.5C in a bid to avoid the worst impacts of rising sea levels, drought, floods, heatwaves and extreme storms brought on by climate change.
The world’s average temperature exceeded 1.5C above the 1850-1900 average for the first time in 2024 as an “El Nino” climate phenomenon in the tropical Pacific pushed up temperatures on top of human-caused global warming.
The likelihood of the next five years being above 1.5C does not mean the threshold has been permanently breached, as the figures for long-term warming are averaged over 20 years.
Scientists say warming is currently around 1.4C above pre-industrial levels, measured from a baseline of 1850-1900 before global large-scale burning of fossil fuels took off.
The WMO and Met Office found the five-year predicted average temperature in the central tropical Pacific indicates a tendency towards El Nino weather conditions, particularly in the years 2027 and 2028.
Leon Hermanson, lead author of the report, said: “There is an El Nino predicted for the end of 2026, which increases the chances of the following year, 2027, being the next record-breaking year.”
The global annual to decadal climate update is issued annually by the WMO and is produced by the Met Office.
The report comes just after a heatwave smashed May temperature records in the UK, with experts saying the extreme weather event has been made more likely and severe by human-driven climate change.
Responding to the new report, climate minister Katie White said: “When families are worrying about grandparents overheating behind closed curtains, and children are struggling to sleep through another unbearably hot night, this stops feeling like a warning about the future and starts feeling frighteningly close to home.
“Each new temperature record broken brings the reality of climate change closer to all of us, and nobody wants to hand the next generation more extreme heat, more flooding and constant disruption as the new normal.
“But we also know surrender is not an option.
“Climate change is a global challenge, and Britain will play our part, leading with the best of British science, innovation and clean energy to protect future generations while creating the jobs, investment and energy security we deserve here at home.”
