The U.S. military has been publicly broadcasting the locations of surveillance flights near Cuba through open flight-tracking platforms, a move analysts say is intended to send a visible warning to Havana as tensions between the two countries continue to escalate.
BBC identified at least five U.S. Navy P-8A Poseidon surveillance aircraft and three MQ-4C Triton drones operating near Cuba since May 11, with some flights coming within 50 miles of the island. Experts told the BBC the decision to leave flight transponders active was likely intentional.
"Leaving flight transponders on is likely deliberate," drone expert Steve Wright told BBC Verify, adding that the U.S. was sending "a clear message it has eyes in the sky to maintain the squeeze."
According to U.S. officials cited by The New York Times, surveillance flights involving P-8 aircraft, RC-135 Rivet Joint spy planes and MQ-4 drones have increased steadily since February. The flights are allegedly part of a broader pressure campaign tied to worsening U.S.-Cuba relations following sanctions and restrictions targeting the island's fuel imports.
Analysts consulted said the operations appear designed both to monitor Cuba and to signal deterrence to allies such as Venezuela, Russia and China.
"When we prepare for operations, we go invisible," retired U.S. Navy intelligence commander José Adán Gutiérrez told the Times. "The fact that these flights were made public on purpose basically indicates there is a message."
Several experts stressed the activity does not necessarily indicate imminent military action. Mark Cancian, a former Marine Corps colonel now with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told BBC Verify the flights were likely focused on monitoring shipping activity near Cuba rather than preparing for an invasion.
Still, CBS News reported Thursday that the U.S. intelligence community has begun analyzing how Cuba might respond to potential American military action. According to CBS, Pentagon and Defense Intelligence Agency analysts started reviewing possible scenarios earlier this month while tracking a sanctioned Russian oil tanker heading toward Cuba.
The report also said U.S. officials have started developing military options for President Donald Trump, although Trump told reporters Wednesday that "there won't be escalation."
Cuban officials have accused Washington of attempting to normalize the threat of military aggression. Cuban Vice Foreign Minister Carlos Fernández de Cossío described the visible military buildup as "a coldly calculated communications strategy."
