A government panel of experts examining countermeasures against the new coronavirus compiled a proposal on Friday urging the national and local governments to prepare for an expected second wave of infections. In the panel's first meeting since the declaration of the state of emergency was lifted, the proposal called for strengthening the testing system and securing personnel to cope with a rapid increase in the number of infected people.
The experts estimated that new infections peaked around April 1, while the number of infected people peaked around April 10, accounting for a period of incubation.
At this point, the estimated effective reproduction number, which indicates the average number of people infected by one infected person, dropped to less than one, which is a benchmark for the peak of the outbreak, and it remained below one until the Golden Week holiday period at the beginning of May.
However, it rose to 1.4 right after the end of the holidays, so "we need to monitor it carefully and continuously," the panel's proposal pointed out.
It is likely that self-restraint going out and travel restrictions due to the declaration of the state of emergency on April 7 initially contributed to the control of new infections, but the effects are thought to have faded after the holidays.
The proposal states that it is necessary to prepare for the second wave of infection while the situation is still under control, and it calls on the government to use antigen tests that can quickly determine infection, to monitor hospital bed occupancy rate, and to secure medical equipment.
The proposal also called on prefectures to strengthen and expand their inspection systems, medical care provision systems, health center systems, monitoring of the number of infected people, local government response systems, and support for facilities for the elderly and disabled. This will enable the dispatch of personnel in the event of a full-blown second wave, and the development of a system that can respond immediately to infections within a facility.
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