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Irish Mirror
Irish Mirror
National
Cormac O'Shea

Expert says Ireland's coronavirus lockdowns could span 18 months with nine waves of virus

An expert has said that Ireland could face nine waves of the virus and have lockdowns for 18 months in the "worst case scenario".

Modelling analysis being led by Irish scientist, Dr Rosalyn Moran, at King’s College London suggest that Ireland will need 60% of the population to have had the virus before herd immunity can be effective.

Dr Moran suggested in the worst case scenario Ireland would have to lockdown a number of times with as many as nine waves possible.

The scientist told the Sean O'Rourke Show on RTE Radio One: "Measures brought in have been successful and given us breathing room in order to get out of lockdown in a safe way.

"The testing and how we report and interact with our doctors in our clinical symptoms, so who goes for a test.

"To try and understand how people present, particularly if they have rather mild symptoms or are asymptomatic.

"Thinking very basically of just repeating the model we have done, which is probably not where we want to go, those lockdowns would all be a couple of months which could take us 18 months - basically by the time we have promised the vaccine.

"None of this is a foregone conclusion but the worst case scenario is it could go on for the next year or two years."

Meanwhile Simon Harris has said he is worried that "complacency is setting in" as Ireland tackles the ongoing pandemic.

He warned the public not to "slip up" as the curve of new cases continues to be flattened.

The Minister for Health said that despite the significant progress made so far, it is not yet enough.

He wrote on Twitter on Sunday evening: "A little worried that some complacency is setting in. We have made progress but we’re not yet where we need to be.

"We need to see a fall in new cases. Encouraging signs. But please let’s not slip up now. #StayHome. It’ll be worth it!"

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