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Daily Mirror
Daily Mirror
National
Ryan Merrifield

Expert says coronavirus 'as dangerous as having a bath' after calculating risk of dying

An economist claims the threat of coronavirus in England is about as risky as taking a bath - with figures showing the chance of dying from the disease each day is around one in two million.

Tim Harford crunched the numbers collated by the Office of National Statistics to assess the current situation after being prompted by a friend in self-isolation.

He cautioned that there are many factors, including a person's age and overall health, but concluded the threat "seems modest, for now".

The ONS' data suggests there are between 1,200 and 4,200 new infections a day, while many of those infected are asymptomatic.

Commuters wearing a face mask travel on TfL Victoria Line underground train carriages (AFP via Getty Images)

Around one person in 100 dies after catching the bug and another one in 100 suffer long-term effects, which translates to a one in two million chance of dying in England, Mr Harford said.

Mr Harford, who writes for the Financial Times and presents BBC Radio 4's More or Less, told The Sun : "Covid-19 currently presents a background risk of a one in a million chance of death or lasting harm, every day.

"The risk of death alone is one in two million.

"Simply existing in a country where the virus is suppressed but circulating is not so risky. It depends on age, gender, geography, behaviour and much else.

"But on average it is similar to taking a bath, going skiing, or a short motorbike ride, and considerably less risky than a scuba dive or a skydive."

He added, however, that people must make their "own decisions".

It comes six months after the first death involving coronavirus in the UK, which occurred on March 2.

The patient, who had tested positive for Covid-19, was aged 80 or over and died in a hospital in Essex, according to data published by NHS England.

Since then, more than 57,000 deaths have taken place across the country where Covid-19 has been mentioned on the death certificate.

The number of people who have died within 28 days of testing positive for Covid-19 - the Government's official death toll - currently stands at just over 41,500.

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