Nov. 18--The Bears' dominance during Sunday's 37-13 road win over the Rams was convincing. It was thorough. It was eye opening. It was, quite frankly, unexpected. And because of that, in many ways, that blowout victory has altered the lens through which the Bears are now being viewed around the league.
Suddenly, it appears, John Fox's team has risen a notch on the NFC totem pole, no longer a speed bag for opponents but rather a team that's now punching back with power. That's what gives Sunday's game against the Denver Broncos elevated intrigue. The Broncos have lost two straight and are undergoing a quarterback change -- from Peyton Manning to Brock Osweiler. So does that open the door for the Bears to run their winning streak to three and claw back to .500 for the first time since Week 6 of last season? Perhaps. But even with the elevated excitement, it's important to keep expectations on a realistic level.
So here's a Week 11 guide to doing just that.
Expect the Bears to continue their impressive climb for the rest of the season. At this point, it's clear they have cultivated a level of mental toughness to withstand key injuries while also developing an obvious cohesion that's helping them excel in clutch moments. Fox and his coaching staff deserve significant credit for getting this team focused and prepared on a weekly basis and not letting players be distracted by lineup changes or outside noise. That gives the Bears a chance to win Sunday. It gives them a chance to win on Thanksgiving night against the Packers in Green Bay. And it gives them a very real chance to win each of their next seven games. The same couldn't be said during last season's freefall when six of the Bears' final eight losses came by double digits.
Don't expect the Bears to be in the NFC playoffs come January. Let's just be real for a minute. The same team that took the Rams apart on Sunday also gave up 547 total yards and lost to the Lions just four weeks earlier. So yes, some level of inconsistency still exists. At present, only five NFC teams are above .500 -- the Panthers (9-0), Cardinals (7-2), Vikings (7-2), Packers (6-3) and Falcons (6-3). (The Giants lead the putrid NFC East at 5-5.) And that could produce a wild scramble for the final wild card berth with the Falcons looking to fend off a pack of hopefuls that includes the Bears, Seahawks, Redskins, Eagles, Rams and Buccaneers. But it's hard to assess the Bears' win in St. Louis and forecast similar dominance through the next seven weeks. There will be stumbles. There will be frustrating losses. There will be reality-check Sundays that expose this team's weaknesses. Eight wins is probably a realistic bar.
Expect Jay Cutler to continue his stellar season. And it's stellar, you should know, because of how simple it's been. Cutler threw for 233 yards and three touchdowns in the first half alone Sunday in St. Louis and he finished the day with a rating of 151.0, by far the best of his 10-year career. Yet after the game, Cutler shrugged and chuckled at the praise that was coming his way. "I don't feel like I did that much," Cutler said. He didn't have to. His 87-yard touchdown pass to Zach Miller traveled 2 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. And an 83-yard TD toss to Jeremy Langford was caught in the backfield. In fact, of Cutler's 19 completions against the Rams, five were caught in the backfield or at the line of scrimmage with nine others completed within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage. Credit offensive coordinator Adam Gase for putting Cutler and the offense in favorable positions to succeed. Credit Cutler for playing within himself and making smart choices. Celebrate the quarterback's reduction in turnovers this season -- seven in his eight starts this season, compared with 24 in 15 starts last season. It's a real show of progress. And there is nothing to indicate that a major regression is on the horizon.
Don't expect Cutler to have an explosive day against the Broncos. This a Super Bowl-caliber defense coming to Soldier Field, a unit that put the great Aaron Rodgers in a straitjacket in Week 8, limiting the Packers quarterback to 77 yards on 14-for-22 passing. The Broncos are tops in the NFL in passing defense (182.8 yards per game) and total yards per play (4.3). They have a league-high 32 sacks plus 17 takeaways and have allowed more than 225 net passing yards just twice this season. The Broncos have held opponents to 13 points or fewer in four games. And they were the NFL's leading scoring defense until last week's 29-13 home loss dropped them down to third (18.7 ppg). But keep that in perspective, too. The Broncos committed five turnovers in that loss, takeaways the Chiefs turned into 20 points with an average starting field position at the Broncos 47 on those drives.
Expect Jeremy Langford to continue his solid play out of the backfield. In the two games, Matt Forte has missed with a knee injury, Langford has turned 48 touches into 324 total yards and three touchdowns. He's running with authority, showcasing his speed and making the front office and coaching staff feel assured about his long-term potential.
Don't expect Forte back in action this weekend. The veteran running back made it clear toward the tail end of last week that he's going to be smart with the way he approaches his return from a sprained medial collateral ligament in his right knee and that he has to consider his future as he works his way back. With a contract that will expire in March, Forte is certainly aware that he may only have just one last chance to get paid. That will come this spring to whatever suitor is most interested in his services. So, at present, Forte can't rush a return to the field at the expense of putting his long-term health and durability in jeopardy. Perhaps most significantly, the Bears have that Thanksgiving night clash with the Packers at Lambeau Field on the itinerary. So pushing for a return against the Broncos and then needing to make a quick turnaround to play four nights later in Green Bay just doesn't seem, on the surface, to be the most sensible plan. Forte will likely mix into practice this week, at least in a limited capacity. But the Bears may be best off targeting his return for the Packers game, after which the Bears would get an extended weekend off and 10 days before their next game.
Expect Brock Osweiler to be better than Peyton Manning. No, we're not forecasting a Hall of Fame career and a run at Manning's chapter in the NFL record book. But, even in making his first NFL start on the road, you'd guess that Osweiler can be better than Manning has been for much of this season. Keep in mind, Manning's nine-start numbers this season have been woeful -- a 59.9 completion percentage, 17 interceptions, nine TD passes. That all factors into a 67.6 rating, which puts Manning below Colin Kaepernick (78.5) and Nick Foles (75.9) and only above Ryan Mallett (63.6) among quarterbacks with at least 100 pass attempts this season. Osweiler certainly can be better than that. And he may, in actuality, be a better fit for the offensive system of Broncos coach Gary Kubiak. The Broncos will need their struggling running game to pick up the pace. But with a defense that's as good as any in the league right now, the Broncos don't need a record-setting offense to forge their success.
Don't expect the Broncos to fall into a panic trap. Yes, there's anxiety in Denver after two straight losses. And certainly the uncertainty of the quarterback switch adds to the stress. But if ever there were an ideal situation to replace a Hall of Fame quarterback with an unproven backup, it's now with so many factors helping to lessen the pressure on Osweiler. The Broncos still hold a three-game lead in the AFC West. They still have a tremendous defense. And while their new quarterback has never been tested as starter, he has spent the past three-and-a-half seasons preparing and developing alongside arguably the greatest quarterback to ever play the game. All the Broncos need is an offense that can avoid catastrophic meltdowns and they will be able to legitimize themselves as Super Bowl contenders. Osweiler should be aware of the dynamics and allowed to play without pressing.
