What’s happening?
The 2015 National Hockey League Stanley Cup final will start Wednesday night (8pm ET) in Tampa Bay, between the Chicago Blackhawks and the Tampa Bay Lightning.
How am I supposed to feel about that?
As a hockey fan, you should feel great. Tampa Bay is young, fast and talented, while Chicago is much the same, only more experienced. ESPN’s Pierre LeBrun put it this way: “The new Blackhawks versus the old Blackhawks, that’s what the 2015 Stanley Cup final has in store for us.”
As an NHL executive, you should be breathing a sigh of relief that at least one major hockey market made it to the final. Anaheim (who Chicago beat in the Western final ) versus Tampa Bay might have proven that successful hockey teams can be built just about anywhere, but fewer people would watch.
How did we get here?
For the first time since 2000, both conference finals took seven games to decide a winner. Tampa Bay passed Detroit and Montreal, and then finally overcame the Rangers last Friday night with a fairly dominating 2-0 win in New York City, pushing out the team that was generally regarded to be a favourite to return to the final.
On Saturday night, Chicago blew past the Anaheim Ducks with a 5-3 win in regulation. To win it all without having to go to overtime was a notable achievement, as the Ducks and Blackhawks pushed three games into overtime, including one into double OT, and another (game 3) into triple OT. The Ducks were the best team in the West all year, and after sweeping Winnipeg in the first round, and blowing by Calgary in the second, 4-1, they were expected to reach the final.
So nobody predicted these teams would meet in the final?
Actually, someone at USA Today called it in November.
Who’s the favourite?
The Lightning are a fast, high-scoring team capable of playing good defence (as evidenced against regular-season leaders New York Rangers in the Eastern conference final), backed by towering goalie Ben Bishop. (He’s 6ft 7in.) Tampa currently boasts some of the most exciting forwards in the league, including Steven Stamkos, Tyler Johnson, Ondrej Palat, Victor Hedman, Nikita Kucherov, and Alex Killorn. Between them, they’ve notched 43 goals and 98 points so far this post-season. Kucherov does stuff like this:
For his part, Bishop has gone 12-8 with a .920 save percentage and a 2.15 goals-against average for his 20 playoff games this year.
That’s not to say they are without fault. Bishop, specifically, has had a couple of shaky moments in these playoffs. In game four of the second round against Montreal, Bishop gave up three goals on 14 shots and lasted only 25 minutes before he was yanked. Game six against New York was similar – Bishop let in five goals in just 26 shots, forcing head coach Jon Cooper to pull him after only 47 minutes of play.
And there is that experience factor. While Tampa Bay blew past Detroit, solved the puzzle of Montreal’s elite goaltender, Carey Price, and eventually out-skilled the Rangers, Chicago is another challenge altogether.
So the Blackhawks, then?
The Blackhawks are in familiar territory. For the past five seasons, no matter how Chicago finishes in the playoff pack, they are to be considered Cup favourites. The Blackhawks have won two Cups since 2010, and last year pushed the eventual Cup winners, the Los Angeles Kings, to seven games – the last of which went to double overtime – in the Western final (which was arguably the best playoff series of the post-lockout era). In fact that loss to LA was the only playoff series loss the Blackhawks have had in the last 10 they’ve played.
Bottom line is they know how to win, and they have the assets to do so.
Up front, the Blackhawks have an impressive core group of scorers. That list includes: Jonathan Toews 9-18; Patrick Kane 10-20; Patrick Sharp 4-12; Marian Hossa 9-13; and Brad Richards 2-11. Combined, they’ve scored 34 goals and 74 points.
Here is the kind of thing they can do:
Behind them is perhaps the strongest defensive pairing in the league, Brent Seabrook and Duncan Keith, who aren’t just a skilled, bruising combo, but pick up where the forwards left off in making goals happen. Keith has 18 assists so far this post-season, and Seabrook has added another 10 (along with four goals). Over at CBC/Sportsnet, Elliotte Friedman has described Keith as a “mutant” for his endurance capabilities, and perhaps rightly so. Through the 16 games prior to Saturday’s game, where he logged another 27:41 of ice time, Keith was averaging over 31 minutes on the ice. That … is kind of crazy.
(This is also saying nothing of defenceman Niklas Hjalmarsson, who’s racked up six points and is also averaging just over 26 minutes of ice time a night.)
Behind them, between the pipes, is Corey Crawford, a goaltender everyone seems to underestimate every year, despite his continued success. Granted, his 2.56 goals-against average and .919 save percentage isn’t terrific, but he’s proven clutch at crucial times in the past, especially when it’s all on the line.
Corey Crawford is 11-3 with a .922 save percentage and 2.28 GAA when facing elimination. #Blackhawks
— Mark Lazerus (@MarkLazerus) May 31, 2015
(But since we’re at it, by comparison, when Crawford backstopped Chicago to a Stanley Cup in 2013, his numbers were markedly better: .932 save percentage and a 1.84 GAA. Make of that what you will.)
In other words, Tampa could surprise, but it looks like Chicago is probably your favourite here.
Could there be an upset?
Absolutely. After all, Tampa has triumphed over the Blackhawks before – they handed Chicago a 4-0 loss in February (though at the time Chicago was without Patrick Kane). And while we’re aware of what kind of players guys like Kane and Toews can be in a Final (very good), we’ve yet to see what could become of Stamkos or Kucherov or Johnson on the big stage. There’s every chance, given the chance, they’ll up their game even more.
But seriously...
OK, seriously, Chicago will probably win this. But let’s just hope it takes them at least six games to do it.
