Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s party looks set to retain power in India’s most politically crucial state, exit polls predicted, indicating his popularity remains high despite rising inflation, joblessness and a devastating wave of Covid-19 infections.
At least eight exit polls said Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party would win a majority in the 403-seat assembly in the northern Uttar Pradesh state after the last round of voting ended on Monday. However, the BJP’s victory margin is expected to be tighter from five years ago when it won nearly 80% of the seats.
Uttar Pradesh, with a population of 230 million, more than the size of Brazil, is a crucial indicator of national mood. Modi was the main face of his party and its allies during the campaign and a victory in the state would show Indian voters remain loyal to the prime minister after eight years in power and his popularity is intact ahead of general elections in 2024.
“A majority is still a majority no matter if it is diminished, and shows that despite high inflation and a recovering economy, the BJP and Modi are still quite strong," said Akhil Bery, director of South Asia Initiatives at the Asia Society Policy Institute. “For the opposition, it seems as though they still have not been able to settle on an effective message to dethrone the BJP, despite a number of factors seemingly going in their favor."
Still, Modi will face many challenges between now and 2024, as the economy is still recovering from the Covid-19 pandemic, and now there is the added pressure of increased oil prices due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, said Bery. “So, even if this shows a big victory for the BJP, there are a lot of factors that could impact the vote in 2024."
Most polls also predicted the BJP will win a majority in the northeastern state of Manipur. It’s set for a close fight in two other states -- western Goa and the Himalayan state of Uttarakhand -- with the Congress party. It’s poised to lose the northern state of Punjab. Modi’s party currently rules all the states except Punjab.
Final results are expected on March 10, when the votes in all five elections will be tallied.
However, exit polls in India can often be unreliable, especially in massive states like Uttar Pradesh where a complex mix of caste, religion, and development issues guide voters’ choices.
