Early exit polls on Saturday mirrored those taken in the final days of the 2016 election campaign, predicting a tight contest with a slight advantage to the Coalition.
But most voters surveyed listed Medicare or health policy as their key motivators, suggesting Labor’s strong focus on the issue had cut through.
A Nine-Galaxy poll taken in the 25 most marginal seats showed a 3.4% swing to Labor.
If reflected across the electorate, that swing would take Labor to 68 seats – eight short of forming government in its own right.
The strongest swing to Labor was 5.4% in South Australia and 3.9% in Western Australia. It was weakest, around 2.9%, in Victoria, a result that would leave Labor’s seat count in the state unchanged.
The two-party-preferred results showed the parties locked at 50-50.
About 48% said health and Medicare were the key issues that influenced their decision. Education followed at 33%, ahead of the economy, nominated by 28% of voters.
Asked who they thought would win the election, voters in surveyed areas predicted the Coalition would get 43% of the vote to Labor’s 36%.
The Greens were predicted to win 9% and the Nick Xenophon team around 3%.
In a Sky News exit poll, 63% of voters tipped the Coalition to win.
Exclusive exit poll. Health & Medicare the number one issue. 60% of people think the Coalition will win pic.twitter.com/Jr3medUULF (@ljayes)
— Sky News Australia (@SkyNewsAust) July 2, 2016
Most voters said health and education were the issues that guided their vote, though Coalition voters put economic management as their most important issue.
About one-quarter of voters said tax cuts were a focus and 37% listed the Coalition’s superannuation changes as very important.
The major parties must win 76 seats to govern outright.
