Labour is facing “fierce battles” to retain control in at least 12 London boroughs at the May local elections, says a leading pollster.
Lord Hayward expects Sir Keir Starmer’s party to have a “torrid time” as it seeks to defend more than 1,150 seats out of just over 1,800 up for grabs in London.
Four years ago, it was basking in its “21st Century high water mark” triumph of having won the Tory “crown jewel” councils of Westminster, Wandsworth and Barnet.
Now, Labour is under attack “on five fronts” from the Conservatives, Reform UK, Greens, Liberal Democrats and pro-Gaza independents as it seeks to “defend London ward by ward”.
In an in-depth interview with The Standard, the Conservative peer highlighted how:
- The Tory election “target” would be winning back from Labour the flagship council of Westminster, as well as Wandsworth and Barnet.
- The challenge to Sir Keir’s party in boroughs such as Camden, Merton, Lambeth, Southwark, and to a lesser extent Greenwich, would come from the Liberal Democrats and Greens.
- Labour would “face difficulties” from pro-Gaza independents in a “belt” across East and North East London, including in Redbridge, Waltham Forest, Newham, as well as Hackney where there could also be a “strong showing” from the Greens.
- Reform UK was focusing on “natural targets” for the party in Outer London, which he said included Bexley, Bromley, Havering and Hillingdon.
- The Lib-Dems would be “under pressure” from Reform in Sutton.
- Nigel Farage’s party could gain a “significant” number of councillors in the capital, and potentially win control of some town halls from the Tories.
- But it was “unlikely” to gain control of councils from Labour in London.
- With politics so fragmented, Labour faces the challenge of identifying which of its wards in London are most “at risk” given the threat could come from different parties, even in areas very close together.
Lord Hayward correctly predicted Labour was on course to seize Westminster in 2022, as well as Wandsworth and Barnet.
Labour had then poured resources into its target boroughs, he stressed, from areas such Lambeth, Southwark and Merton.
But he believes that the party, given the uncertainty over where it faces the greatest threats, will this time struggle to move its “forces” from borough to borough.
A significant number of councillors could be elected on less than 30% of the vote, with very small majorities, making the town hall polls difficult to predict.
But Lord Hayward was clear that Labour was facing a dire night on May 7, which could spark fresh plotting to oust Sir Keir.
The latest Savanta poll of London, in December, showed Labour at a record low of 31% in voting intention for Parliament, compared to a YouGov survey ahead of the May 2022 local elections when the party was on 50%, a huge 27 percentage points ahead of the Tories.
‘Labour is facing a massive challenge to defend London ward by ward and fierce battles to retain control in at least twelve boroughs,” said Lord Hayward.
“They are going to have a torrid time.
“Both because you have to presume Labour maximised the number of seats across London as a whole in 2022 and because they are now the party of government, the probability is their vote is going to fall fairly heavily.”
He stressed the scale of the task facing Sir Keir’s party in May as it will be under attack politically from so many directions.
“Labour is facing a battle on five fronts against the Conservatives, Lib-Dems, Greens, Reform and pro-Gaza independents,” he said.
“In some boroughs, and the prime examples are places like Islington and Camden but also Haringey and Hackney, they face a real problem..
“Pick out a ward and one can say that is where the Greens will do well, and another ward it’s the pro-Gaza independents etc etc...”
Labour’s 2022 triumph in the capital was a “21st Century high water” mark for the party.
Now, Labour was having to grapple with the difficulty of identifying wards “most at risk”.
Lord Hayward added: “They will be torn as to where to deploy their resources since so many wards will be so different.”
Labour v Tories
Four years ago, Labour chiefs were celebrating seizing three Tory stronghold boroughs in London.
Westminster, Tory since its creation in 1964, Wandsworth, an ultra low council tax authority held by the Conservatives for more than 40 years, and Margaret Thatcher’s former town hall of Barnet, Conservative for more than two decades, all fell within hours.
The picture looks very different now for Labour.
“They will face a revived challenge from the Conservatives in the likes of Barnet, Westminster and Wandsworth,” outlined Lord Hayward.
“Particularly Barnet because the Jewish vote is less likely to switch to Reform.”
If the Labour vote falls as expected, he added: “The most likely beneficiary in those sort of boroughs will be the Tories even if Reform eat into particularly the Conservative vote.
“The Conservatives’ target will be to regain the key boroughs of Westminster, Wandsworth and Barnet.”
Reform UK
Mr Farage has caught some at Westminster by surprise with the focus Reform is putting on winning councils, mainly Conservative held, in London.
But Lord Hayward explained: “Hillingdon to some extent, Havering, Bexley and Bromley are natural targets for him because they fall into what one might describe as Kent and Essex demographically. “
However, he added: “Barking and Dagenham (Labour run) a decade ago would have been a natural Reform target.
“But it, like a large part of what I describe as Inner East and North East London, has changed demographically enormously,” with more local people now of Asian heritage including Muslim voters who he believes are less likely to back Reform.
“Although Reform have not said so, there is no question that they will put pressure on the Lib-Dems in Sutton,” he concluded.
Reform will have been boosted by the defection of Romford MP Andrew Rosindell from the Tories at the weekend, giving Mr Farage’s party its first Member of Parliament in London.
Labour v Liberal Democrats or Greens
As Sir Keir has sought to fend off the threat from Reform, he has been accused of failing to do enough to shore up Labour defences against the Greens, who have soared in popularity under new leader Zack Polanski, and the Lib-Dems, which together are taking more voters from Labour than Reform, according to polls.
“In places like Islington, Camden, Lambeth, Southwark, probably Greenwich but less so, they are going to face particularly threats from the Greens and the Lib Dems, and that may well stretch into Haringey and Greenwich,” explained Lord Hayward.
“The Lib Dems, for example, I think will do very well in Merton because they have got the MP for Wimbledon now,” added the pollster who is respected at Westminster for his predictions despite being a parliamentarian for a political party.
Labour v Pro-Gaza independents
At the 2024 general election, Health Secretary Wes Streeting won his Ilford North seat against Independent Leanne Mohamad by just 528 votes.
“Labour are going to face difficulties from the pro-Gaza independents in East and North East London, you are talking here Redbridge, Waltham Forest, Hackney, Newham,” stressed Lord Hayward as the parties are gearing up for the local elections.
“Hackney is only in part pro-Gaza, I would expect the Greens to also make a strong showing.”
But the picture has not yet crystallised about where Labour will fare worst in this part of the capital.
“There is no question that there is a raft of wards across a whole belt of East and North East London where Labour face the loss of seats but it will depend on the state of the polls in April, on organisation, what has happened to Your Party....etc..,” said the peer.
“But it is the pro-Gaza independents where they face the threat.”
Tower Hamlets
As ever, there will be an “amazing battle” in Tower Hamlets between Labour and a range of other parties.
