The novel coronavirus pandemic that has hit the world has finally reached Yemen, with the war-torn country registering its first case on Friday. The announcement came just a day after the Saudi-led Arab coalition announced a two-week ceasefire as the country braces for the outbreak. The Iran-backed Houthis have yet to announce whether they would follow suit, idly taking their time as the virus seeps into a country whose health system is ill-prepared for such a crisis that will not discriminate between legitimate and Houthi forces.
Yemeni Prime Minister Maeen Abdulmalik warned that the coronavirus will leave an impact on the people and the country’s languishing economy. “No one will be spared,” he told Asharq Al-Awsat. The coalition’s ceasefire announcement therefore, came at a timely moment.
Facts and hopes
Senior officials, politicians and analysts are hoping that the Houthis would prove their detractors wrong and actually seize the opportunity and declare a ceasefire on their end. For once, the militias should quit their pursuit for power and instead prioritize the interests of Yemen, not Iran, above all else. Amid the coronavirus pandemic, half-solutions are not enough for the war-weary Yemenis, who on top of the virus have to contend with collapsed services and shortages of food and medicine.
United Nations special envoy to Yemen Martin Griffiths had handed the warring parties an initiative for a comprehensive solution based on a complete nationwide ceasefire, several economic, humanitarian and confidence-building measures and a commitment to resume the political process.
Critical moments
Abdulmalik said the world was passing through a “dangerous” moment in its history, adding there was a pressing need to ensure the Yemen ceasefire is a success in order to unite efforts to confront the coronavirus. “The repercussions of the pandemic on our country will be double after years of war waged by the militias,” he remarked. “We hope the militias will join our truce out of the realization of the danger confronting the world and our people.”
“I believe that ensuring the success of the truce, away from exploiting it to make gains or extract concessions, will not only help protect our people from this frightening pandemic, but also provide a promising foundation for confidence-building and positively approaching peace plans,” he stressed. He noted, however, that the hours that followed the ceasefire declaration on Thursday “were not promising” given massive violations committed by the Houthis. “We still have hope that they will realize the dangers of the moment and seize the ceasefire as an opportunity to save our people and end the war,” the PM stated.
Iran divorce
As the ceasefire was announced, senior coalition officials urged the need for the Houthis to prioritize Yemen over Iran. How the country grapples with the virus ultimately hinges on whether the Houthis will prioritize Yemen over Iran. Years of war in Yemen have shown that the Houthis are either completely intrinsically devoted to Tehran or partially devoted to it, whereby decisive matters are firmly in Iran’s hands, such as ballistic missiles and political moves. Others believe that the Houthis can act independently, but with Iran’s backing.
Expert on Yemeni affairs at Oxford University, Dr. Elisabeth Kendall told Asharq Al-Awsat that the coalition ceasefire declaration was a smart move on their end because it puts the ball in the Houthi court. If they fail to respond positively to it, then they are relinquishing the moral high ground to the coalition, she explained. If the Houthis truly wanted to maintain any leadership credibility in confronting the pandemic, then they have no choice but to declare their own ceasefire and focus their efforts in combating the virus, she added. Kendell believes that the Houthis can separate themselves from Iran and take decisions without referring to it. They share a common cause with Iran when it suits them, but they cannot be operated through a remote control by Tehran, especially not now given that Iran itself is struggling with the virus outbreak, damaging sanctions and a collapse in oil prices.
British Ambassador to Yemen Michael Aron had previously spoken to Asharq Al-Awsat about the possibility that the Houthis could detach themselves from Iran. In wake of the new ceasefire, Asharq Al-Awsat again asked him if he believes that the militias can act independently. He replied that the Houthis can be persuaded into believing that Saudi Arabia is a more trusted and credible ally than Iran. Tehran only sees the Houthis as agents in a conflict with Saudi Arabia. The Kingdom, on the other hand, enjoys long historic relations with Yemen and is keen on its security and stability, he explained.
Aron said the ceasefire offers the necessary space for holding talks, revealing that the Houthis had repeatedly called for a nationwide ceasefire, and now, they have it. They must show that they want peace and kickstart talks.
These hopes were dampened with the declaration by Marib governor Sultan al-Arada that the Houthis fired a ballistic missile at the province shortly after the ceasefire was announced.
Skepticism
The hopes were further dampened by Yemeni political analyst Sam al-Ghabari, who told Asharq Al-Awsat that the Houthis have never respected goodwill initiatives by the legitimate government and Arab coalition. The ceasefire is a “unilateral initiative that the Houthis have not committed to and have not asked for,” he went on to say. “The Houthis have not come up with a single figure from among their ranks that could offer any opportunity to deal with any peace initiative. The militias are a replica of the Khomeini organizational structure that is based on maneuvering and reshuffling of ranks in a cycle that is repeated over and over again.”
“You can go back to the massive amount of agreements that the Houthis have reneged on. All they care about is suspending their losing war in order to reshuffle ranks given their major losses,” he explained. “This deadly cycle must stop with a decisive battle or a real political agreement. Will the Houthis accept any such agreement? Any political reading of the Houthis will show that they are not qualified for that. In fact, their ideological beliefs make it impossible for them to reach peace. Anyone who wants to understand the war, must go back to history which is repeating itself today.” Political initiatives are “useless” with the militias, Ghabari said.
Some optimism
Former Yemeni foreign ministry undersecretary Mustafa Numaan offered a more optimistic outlook, saying the Houthis are expected to positively approach the coalition ceasefire. The militias themselves had been calling for a such a ceasefire, he told Asharq Al-Awsat. “This is a new opportunity for all the Yemenis to come together and work without stalling towards reaching initiatives that would take the country away from war and on a new path.”
