The European campaigns of Cardiff Rugby and the Scarlets could effectively be over before they start.
Both teams are staring down the barrel of forfeiting their opening matches and handing 28-0 victories to their respective opponents, Toulouse and Bristol.
Due to the new abbreviated format of the group stages, it would leave them just three matches to recover and qualify for the knockout stages. Not insurmountable, but a tall order indeed.
How did we get here?
On October 15, it was announced that the first home games for the South African franchises in the United Rugby Championship would take place, well, at home.
The round six and seven fixtures were due to take place in Italy but they were switched to South Africa when the country was removed from the UK's red list.
“This is a brilliant result, not only for the South African teams but for the league which now gets to make a tangible impression in this rugby heartland early in the season," said league CEO Martin Anayi at the time.
And it's tough to blame the league too much here. Restrictions on travel to and from South Africa were being lifted.
You could debate the wisdom of progressing with a cross-continent tournament during a global pandemic, but that would be going over old ground at this point.
So, following the latest health advice, Cardiff, Scarlets, Munster and Zebre all headed on a two-game tour of South Africa.
Less than a week after landing in the country, South African scientists detected a new Covid-19 variant - named Omicron - and alerted the world to it.
The UK Government responded by moving the country back to the red list, leaving Cardiff and Scarlets stranded.
Where are they now?
The entire Scarlets tour party are currently at a quarantine hotel in Belfast. Their flight out of Cape Town took them to Dublin and they then travelled by bus to Northern Ireland.
Their quarantine period will be completed on Friday morning, just over 24 hours before their game against Bristol is due to kick off.
As for Cardiff, 42 out of 48 of their tour party are due to leave Cape Town on Thursday morning. Their six positive Covid cases will remain at a Government quarantine hotel in South Africa.
Cardiff will travel to England, via Dublin, and complete the 10 days of mandatory hotel isolation, which would end around Monday 13 December.
What does this mean for Europe?
Cardiff have actually committed to do everything they can to fulfil their home fixture against Toulouse on December 11, despite the bulk of their squad still being in quarantine.
A number of Wales internationals - Josh Adams, Willis Halaholo, Tomos Williams, Dillon Lewis, Seb Davies, Ellis Jenkins and James Botham - did not travel to South Africa and could form the spine of a team to face the defending champions.
The gaps will be filled by squad players and academy boys.
"Anyone from this trip will be ineligible to face Toulouse and Quins but we have got a number of internationals back home and we’ll do everything in our power to honour these fixtures," said Cardiff Director of Rugby Dai Young.
"The team will be made up of the internationals who haven’t come with us and some of our best academy players. I’m confident they will do the jersey proud but we need the Cardiff supporters to get right behind us."
The situation is not as straightforward for the Scarlets.
It is deeply unlikely that any player isolating in Belfast would be deemed available for the match against Bristol. They have been isolating in the team hotel since Thursday last week and are now confined to their rooms in Belfast.
They are afforded 30 minutes per day to exercise in the hotel car park but this preparation would be deemed light years away from adequate for elite athletes.
Playing any of these players against Bristol would likely put them at risk of injury.
Where their situation differs to Cardiff's is that all of their Welsh internationals travelled to South Africa after the autumn campaign, ironically, to help them prepare as a group for the Bristol match.
If they were to scramble together a side, it would not have the same spine of top talent as Cardiff's. It would be made up almost entirely of academy players and wider squad players.
Then there would be legitimate questions around player welfare to consider. Not to mention the fact that the kind of players available have played barely any rugby since the start of the pandemic due to age-grade matches being wiped out.
Playing a handful of academy players against Europe's elite is one thing, but having them make up the majority of your matchday squad is something a little different.
Who's taking training?
Cardiff's academy chief Gruff Rees will be preparing the side to take on Toulouse along with first team assistant T Rhys Thomas and Richie Rees, who stayed behind in Wales to help prepare the players who didn't travel.
Rees has experience of coaching at regional level, having been employed by the Ospreys for a number of years.
The Scarlets are yet to indicate what their position is on their European clash with Bristol and have certainly not ruled it out.
Can the games be rescheduled?
Almost certainly not. The only room in the calendar would fall during the Six Nations.
There is no way EPCR would have their tournament playing matches at the same time as international games, there's no way Bristol or Toulouse would agree to it and there's no way the broadcasters would have it.
So rescheduling the matches is out of the question.
What happens if fixtures can't be played as scheduled?
It's more than likely that the Welsh teams would have to forfeit the matches, resulting in a 28-0 victory being awarded to the opposition.
Will new players need to be registered?
It is likely that new players will need to be registered for European competition, especially for the Scarlets to be able to field a side.
This is unorthodox but it would take remarkable rigidity from EPCR not to sanction the registration of new players given the circumstances.
EPCR took a lot of heat last season when teams pulling out of matches for Covid reasons had to forfeit the game, with a 28-0 win being handed to the opposition.
They would likely be keen to avoid such scenarios, especially on the opening weekend of the competition this term. In light of that, allowing the affected teams to register a few players is a small concession if it means games can go ahead.
Can loan players be brought in?
That's slightly uncharted territory but the use of those players would have to be sanctioned. Again, if it meant the games could go ahead, then it seems a small price to pay.
Getting players in on loan might not be straightforward though. If the Ospreys or Dragons were to help out, then any loaned players would be cup tied and unavailable to their parent club for the rest of the European campaign.
What are the chances of the games going ahead?
Talks are ongoing over both.
It feels like the Cardiff game is the more likely of the two at the moment. They have gone public in stating their intention to play the game and explained who is taking training.
It seems the only way this game would not now go ahead is if EPCR didn't sanction any players that would need to be registered to make it happen.
This is also the biggest occasion of Cardiff's season, welcoming defending champions Toulouse to the Welsh capital. The game is almost sold out already, so you could see why they'd be keen to play it.
The Scarlets have not made any public comment on their intentions for the trip to Ashton Gate. Although their players would be out of isolation in time for the match, it is safe to assume they will not be risked given the lack of adequate preparation.
It is tough to see that game going ahead giving the unavailability of all of their Welsh international and almost all of their recognised first team players.
But a decision one way or the other has not been made on either match.
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