January’s trade figures make for depressing reading. UK goods exports to the EU fell by 41 per cent, according to the Office for National Statistics.
While some of this can be attributed to temporary factors, such as teething problems, the pandemic and pre-Brexit stockpiling, trade friction is the inevitable consequence of Brexit, something this paper reported on extensively throughout January.
Yet at the same time, the drop in trade was sharper with the EU than non-EU countries, suggesting it is a consequence of Brexit rather than the pandemic.
The Office for Budget Responsibility has already cut its forecast for first quarter GDP growth by 0.5 per cent as a consequence of disruption to UK-EU trade.
The issue with Brexit is not simply day one snags or queues at Dover — it is that, in the long run, the UK will be permanently and unnecessarily poorer.
