CLEVELAND _ House Republicans hold the biggest majority since the Great Depression. But the lawmaker in charge of keeping all those seats, Oregon Rep. Greg Walden, said Monday that the next election is about "whether you want to continue things the way they are or whether you're ready for real change."
The contradiction is one of several that underscores the challenge facing many down-ballot Republicans in an election year headlined by Donald Trump, one of the party's least popular presumptive nominees in modern history.
Walden said many GOP candidates in competitive districts will outperform Trump on the ballot because of the personal connections they have made with voters. Yet, he also said they will rely on the frustration and insecurity expressed by Trump's voters.
During a forum hosted by the Atlantic magazine outside the Republican National Convention in Cleveland, he spoke confidently about his party's chances for keeping the House, calling Democratic predictions that 70 to 80 seats are competitive "preposterous."
Republicans hold 247 of 435 House seats. Though they are predicted to lose seats this year, few expect them to lose control.
Walden did not dismiss Trump's effect on House races, but said it would vary by region.
One thing in the Republicans' favor: Presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton is also extremely unpopular, particularly in some competitive House districts. Walden argued that Republicans will have an easier time linking Democratic candidates to Clinton than Democrats will have linking their opponents to Trump. His reason: Clinton is more tied to the Democratic establishment because of her career in politics.
David Wasserman, House editor of the Cook Political Report, estimated that Democrats would win five to 15 seats. He said the party would have a tough time making larger gains because, in many cases, Clinton will run up her vote tallies in districts already controlled by Democrats and because the party has failed to field strong candidates in some competitive districts.
Still, he predicted that House Speaker Paul Ryan's job would get tougher in 2017, with a smaller majority and a growing caucus of insurgent members willing to buck leadership.
