So, with the Italian supreme court closed for the night, I'll shut up shop here too.
Back tomorrow with more coverage from Rome, and the usual fare. Thanks, and goodnight. GW
Berlusconi court adjourns until Wednesday
The Supreme Court in Rome has just adjourned for the day.
Silvio Berlusconi's final appeal will resume on Wednesday, when his legal team led by Franco Coppi is expected to present their counter arguments.
As explained at 4.07pm, Berlusconi's case is made up of around 50 different point. This includes the argument that the former PM wasn't really in ful charge of Mediaset when the offences took place, as he was busy with his political career.
A verdict could come tomorrow, or we might be left wating until Thursday....
Updated
A quick recap
A reminder of the importance of this case:
Today's appeal hearing at the Supreme Court (which could last until Thursday) is Silvio Berlusconi's final attempt to avoid a ban from public office and a jail term over a tax fraud conviction involving his Mediaset empire.
If the sentence is upheld, then political analysts fear Berlusconi's Freedom Party could pull its support for the fragile Italian coalition. That could bring down prime minister Enrico Letta.
So, why has the prosecutor recommended reducing the public office ban from five years to three? Reuters explains that the move was made on "technical legal grounds"
One piece of idle speculation did strike me: that by cutting the sentence, the prosecutors reduce the risk that judges will acquit Berlusconi or void the verdict and start the process again... That's just a personal thought.
Alternatively, they could simply be responding to the Berlusconi side's case. (updated for clarity).
Updated
Reuters: Berlusconi prosecutor seeks cut in public office ban
Reuters' Rome bureau provides details of the latest development in Silvio Berlusconi's appeal -- the fact that the prosecution has proposed that the public office ban should be cut:
An Italian public prosecutor on Tuesday asked the country's top court to reduce former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi's ban from public office for tax fraud to 3 years from 5, but to confirm a one year prison term.
The supreme court is hearing Berlusconi's last appeal in a case which could threaten the survival of Italy's shaky coalition government if his conviction is confirmed.
Berlusconi was sentenced to four years in jail by the lower court but this has been reduced to one year under a 2006 amnesty.
ANSA: the legal arguments
ANSA, the Italian news agency, has details of the early skirmishes in the Berlusconi court case:
The four-year conviction regards a system of inflated film-rights purchases at Berlusconi's Mediaset media empire and the use of offshore companies to create slush funds.
Prosecutors say this enabled Berlusconi to dodge taxes on around seven million euros in 2002 and 2003.
"There is a thread that is given from the continuity of the system starting from the period of its invention in the 1980s," Prosecutor Antonello Mura told the Cassation Tuesday. Mura said the aim was to "inflate costs for tax benefits and produce payments for the creation of substantial capital abroad". Berlusconi says he had nothing to do with these dealings or authorising them as he was too occupied with political matters.
He was premier at the time.
Franco Coppi, a member of Berlusconi's defence team, said that the "crime does not exist", adding that he was aiming to have the conviction overturned.
Open Europe's Vincenzo Scarpetta also flags up this latest development:
Supreme Court prosecutor says #Berlusconi's public office ban should be cut to 3 years, but 4-year prison sentence should be upheld. #Italy
— Vincenzo Scarpetta (@LondonerVince) July 30, 2013
(reminder: Open Europe's analysis of the case is covered at 12.23pm)
A late newsflash from Rome, saying the Italian prosecutor has asked for Silvio Berlusconi's ban from public office to be reduced:
• ITALY TAX FRAUD CASE PROSECUTOR REQUESTS REDUCTION OF BERLUSCONI BAN FROM PUBLIC OFFICE TO 3 YEARS FROM 5 BUT CONFIRMATION OF PRISON SENTENCE
Looking for more details now....
Updated
AP: Berlusconi's lawyer won't make predictions, but...
Associated Press reports that Silvio Berlusconi's lawyer, Franco Coppi, tried to avoid guessing the outcome of today's hearing. Not completely successfully.
Here's a flavour of its report from the Italian supreme court in Rome, as Berlusconi's appeal was being heard:
The tensely awaited decision, which could have an impact on Italy's fragile, three-month-old coalition government, is expected Wednesday or possibly Thursday, Berlusconi's lawyer Franco Coppi told reporters outside the courtroom.
Berlusconi's case is one of eight on the docket, and the last one to be heard.
"I'm superstitious and I don't make predictions," Coppi said during a break after the court spent two and a half hours summarizing the case, but he added: "I expect to win."
Back on the Cypriot haircut deal
Charles Forelle of the Wall Street Journal calculates that large depositors with over €100,000 in Bank of Cyprus are only getting back 15% of that 'unsecured' funds straight away, under the deal announced today (see 3.49pm):
Bank of Cyprus tally. €100 depo becomes: €47.5 equity, €15 unfrozen depo, €37.5 term depos. Think that's right.
— Charles Forelle (@charlesforelle) July 30, 2013
Updated
This handy graphic shows how the Greek bailout funds have been spent since its first bailout in 2010.
Where Greek bailout cash has gone RT @YiannisMouzakis: #Greece, 2010-2014 and €251bn, some calcs on what it is for pic.twitter.com/DnxqdQ4YSc
— Nick Malkoutzis (@NickMalkoutzis) July 30, 2013
You'll note that a lot was used to cover maturing debt (the large purple slice), along with interest payments (red) and recapitalising the banks (grey/blue).
Very little was actually spent by the Athens goverment (primary deficit in blue, and 'other government needs' in green).
That's via Yiannis Mouzakis, a handy expert on the crisis based in Cyprus (who blogs as The Prodigal Greek).
Peugeot Citroen state aid aproved
Just in - the European Commission has (as rumoured last week) approved France's €7bn loan to the financing arm of struggling auto firm PSA Peugeot Citroen.
The EC did insist, though, that the loan was made at a higher price, to avoid competition concerns.
Commissioner Joaquin Almunia explained:
This is a balanced result which offers the PSA group the chance to make a new start on a sound basis.
Readers with an interest in economic history might like to know that the Bank of England has made various historical documents available online.
News Release - Historic Bank of England publications and documents now available online
It includes more than 80,000 ledgers, files and individual records. FT Alphaville's Joseph Cotterill has been trawling, and dredged up a few highlights already:
More from the Bank of England's WW1 history: how it ends - with a 1920s call for central bank independence. http://t.co/EVb1e5wVCW
— Joseph Cotterill (@jsphctrl) July 30, 2013
I also didn't know that BoE was involved in operations to exchange defaulted Russian debt for UK bonds (at par) after 1917.
— Joseph Cotterill (@jsphctrl) July 30, 2013
Updated
Nice piece in the Economist this afternoon on Silvio Berlusconi's court appeal hearing today.
Between a rock and a hard place
It points out that Berlusconi's defence is based on around 50 objections to the original conviction:
Central to their case is the argument that the billionaire media proprietor, who was prime minister at the time of the alleged offences in 2002 and 2003, was then not really in charge of Mediaset, his television empire.
That is the first of the ironies: his lawyers’ task would be a lot easier if, back in the 1990s when he entered politics, Mr Berlusconi had listened to his adversaries and ring-fenced his business interests from his political career.
If Berlusconi loses this final fight, "JH" writes, then prime minister Enrico Letta might have to ask his MPs to vote against the sentence – even though Berlusconi is a longtime opponent. If they refuse, the coalition could fall. At the least, it would enhance the prospects of Letta's rival, "the more telegenic, albeit less experienced, Matteo Renzi, the mayor of Florence".
One of the PdL’s lawmakers, Francesco Giro, told an interviewer as the court was assembling that Mr Berlusconi, though incurably optimistic, was “anxious”. He was not the only one.
Investigations and trials against Berlusconi in the past 25 years: 29. Number of times Berlusconi has received a definitive sentence: 0
— Alberto Nardelli (@AlbertoNardelli) July 30, 2013
Bank of Cyprus savers suffer 47.5% haircut
It's official. Large investors with more than €100,000 in Bank of Cyprus when the country collapsed into a bailout this year are surrendering 47.5% of that money in exchange for new shares in the company.
The Central Bank of Cyprus announced the news today. It put a positive spin on it, saying "significant progress" had been made in recapitalising BoC.
According to Reuters, the move means depositors will lose around €8bn.
And what of the rest? The Central Bank of Cyprus explained that 12% of deposits that were previously blocked will be released. The balance will be split into three deposits per customer, which will be locked for six, nine and 12 months each. However,...
BoC will have the option to renew the time deposits once for the same time duration
So in practice, savers might not get their hands on any of the money for a year, and could have to wait 24 months for the lot.
Here's the full statement:
Significant progress at Bank of Cyprus with the completion of the recapitalisation and the exit from resolution
And as this picture shows, anger over the Cypriot bailout is still visible:
Updated
Mixed news from America on the consumer confidence front -- the headline measure calculated by the Conference Board fell ths month, to 80.3 from 82.1 in June.
US consumers, it seems, are growing more worried about the future. The expectations index slid to 84.7, from 91.1. That suggests growing worries about America's economic growth through the year, as fiscal cutbacks hit home.
The 'present situations' index, though, climbed to its highest level since May 2008.
Italian update
Back in Italy, its supreme court spent this morning hearing a summing up of the legal arguments in Silvio Berlusconi's tax fraud case.
They then called a lunch break – giving the crowds of reporters outside the court a glimpse of Berlusconi's legal team.
Public prosecutor Antonello Mura was lined up to present his case after the break.
As flagged up earlier, Berlusconi's lawyers – and some legal experts – don't expect a verdict tonight.
US house prices up again
Strong housing data from America this afternoon, where prices continue to romp ahead.
The S&P/Case-Shiller index, covering 20 US cities. showed a 2.4% rise in house prices during May. That means a positively perky 12.2% year-on-year rise - the biggest annual increase since March 2006.
House prices in Dallas and Denver are now at record levels.
The San Francisco showed the biggest gains, up 4.3% in May. Atlanta, Chicago, San Diego, and Seattle also posted gains of more than 3%.
Once again, every single city saw sequential home price gains in May, according to Case-Shiller.
— Joseph Weisenthal (@TheStalwart) July 30, 2013
Analysts had expected an even bigger rise, of 12.4% year-on-year. But ithe broad picture remains upbeat
Updated
And here's a couple of snaps of Greece's finance minister, Yannis Stournaras, during his upbeat interview with Reuters (see 1.27pm).
Alas, no photos of the broken window...
The optimism of the Greek finance minister
Over in Greece, finance minister Yannis Stournaras has suggested the Greek government may avoid incurring a black hole in its bailout plan.
In a decidedly upbeat interview with Reuters, Stournaras argued that Greece's economy may actually perform better than its lenders predict.
A decent tourism season and a well-executed reform plan could mean Greece avoids the fiscal gap, of around 2% of GDP, which the Troika has predicted.
Stournaras argued that Greece's main threat is "political risk", not economic, due to MPs running out of enthusiam and patience for austerlty.
He said:
MPs just reflect the average man or woman in the street - they have to believe that there is light at the end of the tunnel. If they believe it they will continue voting the few necessary measures left over, if they don't they are not going to. This is the great risk.
Fin Min Stournaras: #Greece may avoid worrisome budget gap, economic risk abates http://t.co/Ty75cUfuvT
— Efthimia Efthimiou (@EfiEfthimiou) July 30, 2013
Reuters also reports that Stournaras's office, in the centre of Athens, still sports a broken window thanks to "a bullet fired by angry anti-austerity demonstrators in 2010".
This 'feature' has also caught the eye of investors visiting Greece...
Greece investor trip report:'most investors couldn't stop glancing at the hole in Mr Stournaras' front window overlooking Syntagma'
— Paweł Morski (@Pawelmorski) July 29, 2013
Updated
Open Europe: Berlusconi case Q&A
It can be hard to keep track of Silvio Berlusconi's various legal travails. On top of the Mediaset tax fraud case under consideration today, he has also been convicted of breaching confidentiality in March 2013 over a leaked police wiretap, and also found guilty of underage sex charges in June.
Helpfully, Open Europe have published a guide to today's case:
Q&A: All you need to know about Berlusconi's tax fraud trial and its potential implications for the Italian government
It explains how the four-year prison sentence, if upheld, would need to be approved by the Senate, and that Berlusconi's age means most of the sentence would probably be annuled.
But Open Europe also warns that the political implications are unclear:
Several senior members of Berlusconi's party have evoked drastic retaliation (withdrawal from government, resignation en masse of Berlusconi's MPs and Senators, snap elections, and so forth).
The truth is Il Cavaliere would make the final decision - and his party would then almost certainly follow the leader. Sure enough, there would be the potential to trigger a political crisis in Italy.
Photos: Outside Rome's supreme court
A couple more snaps from Rome, as judges at the supreme court consider Silvio Bersluconi's appeal:
Italian debt auction unrattled by Berlusconi case
Berlusconi's court case drama did not alarm bond investors this morning at an auction of Italian debt.
Italy managed to raise its target of €6.75bn through selling new five and 10-year bonds without any obvious difficulty. Yields (or interest rates) dropped compared to the previous sale of this type.
Nick Spiro, sovereign bond expert at Spiro Sovereign Strategy, said the results showed that markets remain unconcerned over political risk in Italy, thanks to the potential support on offer from the European Central Bank
Mario Draghi, it seems, is more important than Silvio Berlusconi to Italy right now. Spiro writes:
Once again, the travails of Mr Berlusconi cast a long shadow over Italian politics. The "Berlusconi factor" seems to be a permanent fixture on Italy's political landscape. Yet the big difference between now and 2011 is that Italian politics is of scant concern to markets.
Only a sudden collapse of Mr Letta's government is likely to trigger a sharp sell-off - and even this would almost certainly not be as severe as previous bond market routs if the reaction to February's inconclusive election is anything to go by.
The reality is that the ECB's bond-buying programme, in spite of all its shortcomings, continues to suppress Spanish and Italian yields.
Silvio Berlusconi's lawyer, Franco Coppi, has told journalists in Rome this morning that he doesn't expect a verdict today.
That's via Reuters, which adds that Coppi said the defence would not request that the case be postponed until September. The judges could still decide to do that on their own account, though.
Updated
It appears that the Italian judges will not issue a verdict tonight, unless it is to postpone the whole process:
Previous tweet (https://t.co/GJ7XKxDbGM) translated: don't expect a Berlusconi verdict today unless it's to postpone.
— Alberto Nardelli (@AlbertoNardelli) July 30, 2013
Photo: the Italian court
Back to Italy, and here's a photo from outside the Court of Cassation building in Rome.
Police officers are in action as the judges settle down to consider Silvio Berlusconi's final appeal against his conviction, ban from public office and prison sentence for tax fraud (see opening post for the details).
Interestingly, shares in companies within Berlusconi's media empire are all up this morning, as trader Alessandro Aimone explains:
Companies controlled by Fininvest all up ahead of #Berlusconi court ruling: Mediaset +3.33%, Mediolanum +1.45%, Mondadori +3.42%
— Alessandro Aimone (@aimoneale) July 30, 2013
Perhaps investors anticipate a good result for the former PM. As Alberto Nardelli explained at 7.58am, the sentence could be overturned, or voided, or delayed....
Eurozone economic sentiment improves - analysis
Eurozone economic sentiment is now at a 15-month high (see previous post), which reinforces the chances that the euro area will exit recession this quarter.
But with the main readings stuck in negative territory, or below the long-term average, the data also shows that the recovery will be tough.
Howard Archer of IHS Global Insight reckons the eurozone should eke out 'marginal growth' later this year.
All business sectors saw confidence rise in July, with the exception of construction, which consumer confidence rose to a 23-month high. Similarly most countries saw confidence pick-up including Germany, France, Italy and Spain.
However....
it is hard to see consumers generally lifting their spending markedly in the near term as their confidence is still limited despite improving appreciably to a 23-month high in July while they are still facing generally high unemployment and limited purchasing power (as limited wage growth and tight fiscal policy counters moderate inflation). The situation does vary markedly though between countries and German consumers are well placed to spend more.
Eurozone confidence data released
Business and consumers across the eurozone are less pessimistic about the economic climate, according to data just published by the European Commission.
Economic sentiment across the eurozone rose to 92.5 in July, from 91.3 in June, the EC reported. Better, but (understandably) still below the 100-mark average.
The data generally showed an improving situation, although the picture is clearly still tough:
• The industrial climate reading rose to minus 10.6, from minus 11.2.
• Services sentiment picked up to minus 7.8, from minus 9.6
And consumers remained nervous, with a sentiment reading of minus 17.4, from minus 18.8.
Elsewhere in the City this morning: BP's $20bn fund to compensate those hurt by the Deepwater Horizon disaster is running dry, with just $300m in the tank. Full story here.
Here's our full story on Barclays revealing a £12.6bn capital shortfall this morning, and announcing a £6bn rights issue:
Barclays pushed into £6bn cash call to plug capital gap
Barclays is asking shareholders for almost £6bn of cash as the bank's new management team races to comply with a demand by the Bank of England that it plug a £12.8bn capital shortfall.
As Antony Jenkins admitted on Tuesday the bank was increasing its provisions for mis-selling financial products by £2bn, he conceded that Barclays had been forced to change its plans as a result of the actions of the Bank of England, which showed the bank's finances were in a worse state than previously thought.
Sweden in surprise contraction
The crisis in the eurozone may have hit Sweden, with the surprise news that its economy shrank in the last three months.
The Swedish statistics office dashed forecasts of a 0.1% rise in GDP by reporting a 0.1% contraction in the April-June period. That's a sharp deterioration on the 0.6% expansion in the first quarter of 2013.
The contraction means the Swedish economy has only grown by 0.6% over the last 12 months, down from 1.7% year-on-year three months ago.
Analysts urged caution, as these are only preliminary statistics.
As Robert Bergqvist of SEB put it:
The main reason for the weakening of the economy in second quarter is very weak external demand, and problems within the euro area.
On other hand, private consumption is fairly strong, and retail sales yesterday were also strong and that confirms the key growth driver is households, and private consumption.
Graph: Spanish GDP
And this graph from the Instituto Nacional de Estadistica shows how Spain's economy has slumped over the last eight quarters:
Ebrahim Rahbari, Citi analyst, is more downbeat about Spain's prospects, commenting:
We're not counting on a further improvement in the third quarter and are very sceptical of any statement that the recession in close to being over.
In an environment where there is more than 25 percent unemployment, a slightly positive GDP figure does not mean the recession has ended.
(via Reuters)
Updated
Economist Shaun Richards agrees that the Spanish GDP data is an improvement:
Much better GDP news from #Spain today but in Q2 it still fell by 0.1% meaning that the economy had shrunk by 1.7% year on year #depression
— Shaun Richards (@notayesmansecon) July 30, 2013
Updated
Spanish GDP falls 0.1%: instant reaction
Kit Juckes of Société Générale tweets that the 0.1% drop in Spanish GDP in the last three months shows its economy is levelling out.
Much better... Spanish GDP only fell 0.1% q/q and -1.7 y/y. Terra firma.......the new normal stagnation.
— kit juckes (@kitjuckes) July 30, 2013
Updated
Spanish GDP falls by 0.1%
Breaking: Spain's economy has now been shrinking for two full years.
Data just released by the Spanish National Statistics Institute showed that Spanish GDP fell by 0.1% between April and June. That's the eighth quarterly contraction in a row.
Encouragingly, though, the pace of decline has slowed -- following the 0.5% contraction suffered in the first three months of 2013.
And on a year-on-year basis, the Spanish economy has shrunk by 1.7% -- slightly better than the 1.8% economists had expected.
I don't think we can call it a green shoot of recovery – but perhaps the bitter frost is easing?
Alberto Nardelli: Four scenarios
There are four possible scenarios of how the Supreme Court ruling over Silvio Berlusconi could play out, explains political analyst Alberto Nardelli.
• the ruling is postponed.
• Berlusconi’s lawyers ask for the ruling to be postponed - they have until Tuesday morning to put in a formal request. Risky, as it would freeze the statute of limitations.
• Berlusconi is acquitted - two possibilities in this scenario: 1) sentence is void and the appeal trial needs to start again (which could end with the statute of limitations kicking in (Sept. 2014)) and 2) full acquittal.
• the sentence is upheld - the key point here, which is missing from lots of media analysis I’ve read is the fact that the ban from public office needs to be rubber stamped by a Senate committee vote
Nardelli also suspects that a` final ruling might not come until Wednesday or Thursday.
Here's his full analysis:
Silvio Berlusconi Mediaset verdict - possible scenarios
Updated
Italy waits for Berlusconi appeal ruling
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the latest events across the eurozone, the financial markets and the global economy.
Judgement Day is looming for Silvio Berlusconio, in a case that could have major implications for the stability of the Italian government, and perhaps the eurozone too.
Italy's supreme court will meet today to consider Silvio Berlusconi's final appeal against a 1-year jail sentence and 5-year ban from office for tax fraud. If the judges uphold the ruling, then the three-times prime minister – who has dominated the Italian system for two decades – would face ejection from politics.
And that prospect raises the threat that Berlusconi's People of Liberty party would pull the plug on Enrico Letta's shaky-looking coalition.
Tense times, with rumours swirling that the judges might take the pragmatic step of delaying a decision.
As my colleague Lizzy Davies explains from Rome:
If the judges agree with those verdicts, they are likely to enforce the requested sentence of four years in prison and a five-year ban on holding public office. The former is unlikely to cause the 76-year-old to lose much sleep as prisoners of his age rarely go to jail in Italy and, due to a 2006 amnesty law, he would be more likely to spend a year under some form of house arrest. But the latter could effectively end the political career of a man who, for better or worse, still plays a highly influential role in his country's affairs.
As head of the centre-right Freedom People (PdL) party, the main partner in centre-left prime minister Enrico Letta's government, Berlusconi is still capable of bringing down the coalition by withdrawing his support, should the moment suit him.
However, as the date of the cassation hearing has approached, speculation has mounted that the decision could be postponed.
Tense times - especially as legal experts are split on how long it will take to get the verdict... Here's Lizzy's full story.
It's looking like a busy day generally. There's plenty of economic data to shed new light on the state of the eurozone, including Spanish GDP data for the last three months (at 8am BST) and euro area consumer confidence and business confidence (at 10am BST).
It's also hectic in the City -- with Barclays dominating attention with news that it is tapping shareholders for almost £6bn to improve its capital base. It's also announced that another £2bn is being set aside to cover compensation for consumer misselling....
Here's the statement from Barclays on its rights issue.
My collleagues are on the case with that story now....
The size of the Barclays rights issue is actually £5.95bn if the fees to investment bankers are included
— Jill Treanor (@jilltreanor) July 30, 2013
I'll be tracking all the developments through the day....
Updated
