Europe could face serious aviation disruption within six weeks if the conflict involving Iran continues to interrupt fuel shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, according to the International Energy Agency.
An Associated Press report cited IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol, who said Europe may have "six weeks or so" of jet fuel remaining if current supply interruptions persist.
Reuters also reported that European airlines and airport operators are already assessing contingency plans amid fears that shortages could begin affecting summer schedules. Carriers are said to be reviewing fuel reserves and evaluating possible reductions in flights if deliveries fail to recover in the coming weeks.
The IEA noted that Europe imports a substantial portion of its jet fuel requirements from the Middle East, leaving the region exposed when supply routes are disrupted. Reuters, citing energy analysts and agency estimates, reported that the current bottleneck could tighten inventories quickly if alternative cargoes do not arrive fast enough.
According to the AP report, infrastructure damage linked to the conflict has worsened the pressure on fuel availability. More than 80 energy-related sites in the region have reportedly been affected, slowing the production and export of refined fuel products at a time when demand from airlines is rising ahead of the summer travel period.
The developing crisis is already being felt across energy markets. Jet fuel prices in Europe have climbed sharply as traders respond to the threat of reduced deliveries. Higher prices are increasing operational pressure on airlines that are already dealing with elevated costs across staffing, maintenance and route management.
Birol warned that the consequences could extend beyond Europe, particularly for countries with fewer alternative supply options. He said the disruption has the potential to become one of the most serious energy supply shocks in recent years if the conflict escalates further.
European authorities are now looking at emergency measures to stabilize supply, Reuters reported, including the possible use of strategic reserves and efforts to secure cargoes from alternative refining hubs. Analysts cautioned, however, that replacement supplies may not be enough to fully offset the loss of shipments from the Gulf.
