This blog has now closed. You can read the latest updates on the parliamentary elections in Portugal here, Romania’s presidential race here and Poland’s presidential first round poll here.
Incumbent centre-right party wins Portuguese election, far-right tied for second place
Portugal’s incumbent, centre-right Democratic Alliance (AD) has won the country’s third snap general election in three years – but once again fallen well short of a majority – as the underperforming socialists were left vying for second place with the far-right Chega party, which took a record 22% of the vote.
By midnight on Sunday, with 99% of the votes counted, the AD – led by the prime minister, Luís Montenegro – had won 32.1% of the vote and taken 86 seats in Portugal’s 230-seat assembly, leaving it far shy of the 116 needed for a majority.
The Socialist party (PS) had taken 23.4% of the vote t0 Chega’s 22.6%, and the two were tied on 58 seats each.
In the last election, held 14 months ago, the AD won 80 seats, the PS 78 and Chega 50.
Chega’s leader, André Ventura, said his party’s impressive showing at the polls – well up on the 18% of the vote it took last time round – had ended 50 years of conservative and socialist governments and “killed bipartisanship in Portugal”.
But Chega’s elation will be tempered by Montenegro’s explicit refusal to strike any deals with Ventura’s party. “Governing with Chega is impossible for three reasons,” Montenegro has said. “It isn’t reliable in its thinking; it behaves like a political weathervane, always changing its mind, and it’s not suited to the exercise of government.”
Super Sunday results so far - summary
Here’s a quick recap of events so far.
ROMANIA: The centrist mayor of Bucharest, Nicuşor Dan, is set to win Romania’s pivotal presidential election with 99% of votes counted, according to official figures showing the pro-EU independent eight points clear of his far-right rival, George Simion.
The figures from Romania’s central election authority showed Dan, who had cast the second round vote as a battle between “a pro-western and an anti-western Romania”, on 54.2%, while Simion, a self-professed Trump admirer, had 45.8%.
Simion disputed the results, but it is unclear what steps the populist candidate could take to contest the outcome.
POLAND: The pro-European centrist Rafał Trzaskowski and historian Karol Nawrocki, backed by the populist right, have each secured about 30% of the vote in a nail-bitingly close first round of Poland’s presidential election.
An exit poll by the Ipsos institute suggested Trzaskowski, the mayor of Warsaw and candidate from the prime minister Donald Tusk’s Civic Coalition, was narrowly ahead with 30.8% of the vote in the first round, with Nawrocki at 29.1% of the vote.
The exit poll, however, points to a first-round result closer than anticipated, which is likely to make Trzaskowski and Tusk nervous about the run-off in two weeks’ time, on 1 June.
PORTUGAL: The centre-right Democratic Alliance (AD), led by Portugal’s caretaker prime minister, Luís Montenegro, looks set to win the country’s third snap election in three years but to again fall well short of a majority, while the far-right Chega party could take a record 20% of the vote.
By midnight on Sunday, with more than 99% of the votes counted, the AD – led by the prime minister, Luís Montenegro – had won 32.1% of the vote and taken 86 seats in Portugal’s 230-seat assembly, leaving it far shy of the 116 needed for a majority. The Socialist party (PS) had taken 23.4% of the vote to Chega’s 22.6%, and the two were tied on 58 seats each.
Far-right Chega, which is led by the former football pundit André Ventura, has seen a huge surge in support over the past few years which has enabled it to become the third-largest party in parliament.
And on that note, it’s all from me, Jakub Krupa in Warsaw, with my colleagues Jon Henley, Sam Jones, Ashifa Kassam and Jennifer Rankin, as I hand the blog over to Helen Livingstone who will keep you up-to-date for a bit longer.
Updated
Brussels view on Super Sunday
The European Commission does not comment on elections taking place in EU member states. Period. But behind that official line, EU officials surely paid close attention to three elections taking place on Sunday.
In the second round of Romania’s presidential elections, a victory for ultranationalist George Simion would have strengthened anti-EU forces in the European Council of EU leaders. But its his rival, Nicușor Dan, who is projected to have won the vote.
The exit polls from the first round of presidential elections in Poland, however, may push officials closer to the edge of their seats. The EU quietly cheered the return of a pro-EU Polish government, following the victory of Donald Tusk’s coalition in October 2023.
But the Tusk government can only fully deliver on its agenda if its candidate for president, the centrist Warsaw mayor Rafał Trzaskowski prevails.
Analysts have suggested that a win for his rival, nationalist historian Karol Nawrocki, who is endorsed by Law and Justice, could paralyse Polish politics. It would also call into question Poland’s rekindled ties with France and Germany.
The knock-on effect of having a run-off on 1 June is further delays to EU policies. EU plans to replace free-trade arrangements for Ukraine that expire on 5 June remain up in the air. That is widely seen as an attempt by Brussels to avoid upsetting Polish farmers – who object to cheaper Ukrainian imports – ahead of the crucial elections. The commission would refute that link. It doesn’t comment on elections after all…
Portugal, a reliable source of pro-European governments, is on course to deliver another centre-right administration led by current prime minister Luís Montenegro. This would be a comfortable outcome for the EU.
As Portugal held its third election in three years, officials will be watching to assess the stability of the new government and how it will stick together in the face of the challenge from the far-right Chega party.
Updated
Trzaskowski's lead in Poland marginally widens in late poll
We have just got the late poll results from Poland, reported to be a mix of exit poll and first results from 50% of polling stations.
There are only some minor changes there with Trzaskowski’s lead increasing to 2pp (from 1.7pp), but, for the record, here it is – with the two candidates in bold going through to the run-off.
Rafał Trzaskowski 31.1% (+0.3)
Karol Nawrocki 29.1% (-)
Sławomir Mentzen 14.8% (-0.6)
Grzegorz Braun 6.3% (+0.1)
Adrian Zandberg 5.2% (-)
Szymon Hołownia 4.9% (+0.1)
Magdalena Biejat 4.1% (-)
Others 4.5%
First run-off poll show it's 'all to play for' in Poland
Speaking after the exit poll was announced in Poland earlier tonight, centrist Warsaw mayor Rafał Trzaskowski sought to mobilise his voters as he warned that his lead over the radical-right rival, Karol Nawrocki, was “razor-thin”.
He’s not wrong.
The first poll conducted after today’s vote, by Opinia24 for TVN24 and TVN24+, shows that Trzaskowski leads Nawrocki by just 2 percentage points, 46% to 44%, when it comes to voting intention ahead of the runoff on 1 June.
6% declined to answer the question, and 4% said they are yet to decide.
It’s all to play for in Poland.
Updated
European leaders congratulate Dan for winning Romanian election
European capitals are calling it for Nicușor Dan in Romania as he is now getting first official congratulations from several fellow European leaders, including France’s Emmanuel Macron, Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Poland’s Donald Tusk and the EU’s Ursula von der Leyen.
Macron said he spoke with Dan on the phone, and made a swipe at Simion by saying that “despite numerous attempts at manipulation, Romanians chose democracy, the rule of law and the European Union”.
Zelenskyy called Dan’s win “historic” and said it was important for Ukraine “to have Romania as a reliable partner [a]nd we are confident we will”.
Tusk said simply “long live free Romania”, while von der Leyen struck the same tone as Macron, saying that Romanians “have chosen the promise of an open, prosperous Romania in a strong Europe”.
Finally, the president of neighbouring Moldova, Maia Sandu, is also clearly delighted with the result.
She said:
Congratulations, dear @NicusorDanRO on being elected President of Romania!
Moldova and Romania stand together, supporting one another and working side by side for a peaceful, democratic, and European future for all our citizens.
Updated
'Close race for second place' in Portugal
Over in Portugal, the official results page shows just how close the race for second place is.
The socialists have just leapfrogged Chega to move into the second spot, with 1,118,947 votes and 23.2% of the vote to the far-right party’s 1,111,856 votes and 22.9%.
The AD is well ahead with 1,597, 936 votes and 33% of the vote.
Trzaskowski will look to mobilise left, centrist voters ahead of second round – snap analysis
Understandably, our initial reaction focused on the overperforming right in Poland, as an exit poll has the radical-right candidate Sławomir Mentzen at 15.4% in third, and the far-right Grzegorz Braun at 6.2% in fourth.
But it’s still worth noting that there’s a lot of votes to be won in the centre and the left, too – and the first-round winner Trzaskowski will definitely want to look at this in the next few days.
Hard-left Adrian Zandberg is fifth in the exit poll, just behind Braun, at 5.2%.
Similarly to Mentzen’s, his voters are very disillusioned with both main parties, so it could prove to be difficult to get them on side. The caveat on moving electorates like Lego bricks made by Dr Stanley earlier (22:36) applies here too, and it’s difficult to figure out how, if at all, they will vote in the second round.
By the way, it’s clearly one of the biggest stories of the night that Mentzen and Zandberg – strong anti-establishment voices openly contesting what they describe as the duopoly of the two main parties that have ruled Poland since 2005 – could well end up with more than 20% of the combined vote share (21.6%, according to the exit poll).
Not to say “I told you so”, but kind of, yes, I suggested that could be the case in my piece earlier this week after I spoke to these two groups at their rallies in Toruń and Warsaw.
It’s not impossible to think they both may be tempted to not endorse anyone to keep positioning themselves in opposition to the main two parties before the 2027 parliamentary election.
Right, focus!
If you look past Zandberg, the exit polls give the next two spots to candidates from the governing coalition, the centrist Sejm speaker Szymon Hołownia (4.8%, a truly brutal collapse when you compare this with his 13.9% in the last presidential elections in 2020) and the New Left’s Senate deputy speaker Magdalena Biejat (4.1%).
Hołownia has already declared his support for Trzaskowski in the runoff, but Biejat has not (yet?).
Before she does that, if at all, she will probably press the Warsaw mayor to make stronger commitments on social issues, including abortion and LGBTQ+ rights, which played a big role in her campaign.
When I spoke with her on Friday night, just minutes before her final rally in Warsaw, she insisted the campaign showed “that there is a space for the left in this weird, deeply polarised world”.
I know we are not meant to add numbers like that (22:36), but theoretically the exit poll shows the combined support for various left candidates on 10%, their best result since 2015.
It may not feel like much, but given how incredibly close this race is, these voters could play a really important role in the second round.
Biejat told me on Friday that what made her stand apart from other candidates was that she was not playing any games or hiding her views, but instead making them plainly clear, whatever the cost.
It will be interesting to see how she, too, responds to Trzaskowski’s attempts to court her voters over the next two weeks.
Updated
Centrist Warsaw mayor narrowly ahead in Polish presidential race – first news report
Jakub Krupa in Warsaw and Ashifa Kassam
The pro-European centrist Rafał Trzaskowski and historian Karol Nawrocki, backed by the populist right, have each secured about 30% of the vote in a nail-bitingly close first round of Poland’s presidential election.
The vote sets the stage for a runoff round on 1 June that will force voters to choose between starkly different visions of the country’s future.
An exit poll by the Ipsos institute, released as voting closed on Sunday, suggested Trzaskowski, the mayor of Warsaw and candidate from the prime minister Donald Tusk’s Civic Coalition, had claimed 30.8% of the vote in the first round. Trailing him was Nawrocki, who has been endorsed by the Law and Justice party (PiS), with 29.1% of the vote.
The exit poll, however, points to a first-round result that was closer than anticipated between the frontrunners, yielding a result that is likely to make Trzaskowski and Tusk nervous.
The outgoing president, Andrzej Duda, is a close ally of the previous PiS government and a supporter of Donald Trump. He opposed the changes pursued by the new Tusk-led administration and blocked some decisions, including ambassadorial nominations.
A potential opposition win would extend the current deadlock, prompting years of political instability.
Updated
Dan 'appears to have unassailable lead' over Simion in Romania – snap analysis
With almost 98% of votes counted, the centrist independent mayor of Bucharest, Nicușor Dan, appears to have an unassailable lead in Romania’s presidential election with 54.25% of the vote against the 45.75% of his far-right rival, George Simion.
More precisely, Dan has a lead of about 830,000 votes – and growing.
Although only 65% of votes in the diaspora have been counted and Simion leads there by about 55% to 45%, that gap seems, if anything, to be widening. It looks impossible for Simion to come back from here.
However, the ultranationalist has yet to concede, and has indeed claimed victory.
“We are the clear winners of these elections,” he said. “We claim victory in the name of the Romanian people.” Simion claimed he was actually 400,000 votes ahead of Dan.
Simion promised a parallel count by his AUR party activists would “ensure the identification of any potential fraud”, although he acknowledged he had not so far seen any. It is unclear what steps he could take to contest the results.
Sergiu Misciou, a political scientist at Babes-Bolyai University, told Reuters some protests by Simion supporters could not be ruled out in the coming days, but added that if the results were several percentage points apart, “it is hard to believe we would be able to challenge them”.
Updated
Exit polls show radical right overperforming in Poland, but 'electorates are not Lego blocks' – snap analysis
I have asked Dr Ben Stanley, a political scientist at SWPS University in Warsaw, for his first thoughts on the Polish exit polls (21:02).
Here is his take:
“If the exit polls reflect the outcome, then the radical right candidates will have overperformed relative to their pre-election polling (21:07), while the centrist and left-wing candidates will have underperformed.
But with this many candidates and 2 pp. margins of error, there is still scope for the picture to change either way.
It’s also worth noting that candidate electorates are not Lego blocks – those who are stacking them to project second round results are overlooking substantial heterogeneity.Mentzen’s supporters, for example, cannot be counted upon to swing fully behind Nawrocki, nor can Trzaskowski simply expect to inherit the votes of the left.”
Updated
Rival marches planned week before second round in Poland
If you were considering taking a relaxed city break in Warsaw next Sunday, 25 May, you may want to think again.
Donald Tusk’s Civic Coalition (KO) party has long advertised plans for a massive campaign march to be held in the capital on that day in a bid to mobilise centrist, liberal and left-wing voters for Rafał Trzaskowski ahead of the second round.
But in his speech after the exit polls were published, radical-right opposition candidate Karol Nawrocki announced he would lead a rival march of conservatives, too.
Updated
Centre-right party wins, but falls short of majority in Portugal with record far-right gains – first news report
Here is Sam Jones’s first take on the events of the night so far:
The centre-right Democratic Alliance (AD), led by Portugal’s caretaker prime minister, Luís Montenegro, looks set to win the country’s third snap election in three years but to again fall well short of a majority, while the far-right Chega party could take a record 20% of the vote.
Three polls, published at 8pm local time by the three main television channels – SIC, RTP and TVI – put the AD on between 29% and 35.1%, with the Socialist party (PS) and Chega vying for second place on 19.4% to 26% and 19.5% to 25.5%, respectively.
If accurate, the polls point to a similar AD showing to the previous general election in March 2024, when the alliance won 28.8% of the vote.
But the surveys show a far closer race between the PS and a seemingly resurgent Chega. Last time, the socialists won 28% of the vote, while Chega took 18.1% – dramatically up from the 7.2% it won in the 2022 election.
Updated
Bucharest mayor Dan on course to win Romanian presidency - first news report
Here is Jon Henley’s first story on the Romanian vote:
The centrist mayor of Bucharest, Nicuşor Dan, is on track to win Romania’s pivotal presidential election with 85% of votes counted, according to official figures showing the pro-European independent six points clear of his far-right rival, George Simion.
The figures from Romania’s central election authority showed Dan, who had cast the second round vote as a battle between “a pro-western and an anti-western Romania”, on 53.2%, while George Simion, a self-described Trump admirer, had 46.8%.
The capital’s two-term mayor, who made his name fighting corrupt property developers, said voters seeking “profound change, functioning state institutions, less corruption, a prosperous economy and a society of dialogue, not hate, have won”.
Simion, however, disputed the polls. He said: “We are the clear winners of these elections. We claim victory in the name of the Romanian people.” Simion promised a parallel vote count would “ensure the identification of any potential fraud”.
Analysts have described the elections as the most important in the country’s post-communist history, with significant implications for the country’s strategic orientation and economic prospects as well as for European Union unity.
Updated
Far-right Chega spinning Portugal result as 'death of longstanding bipartisan system'
The votes in Portugal are still being counted, but far-right Chega is already spinning the election as proof of the death of Portugal’s longstanding bipartisan system.
“We still don’t know if we will come in second or third place. What we do know is that the system is already shaking,” said the Chega MP Pedro Pinto.
He added: “Chega has definitively broken the bipartisan system in Portugal and represents the great alternative for government in Portugal. This is a day that will mark history.”
Dan ahead in Romania with 95% polling stations counted
Let’s take a quick look at Romania again.
With 94.6% polling stations counted, Nicusor Dan is well ahead at 54.15%, and George Simion at 45.85% – so pretty close to the exit polls.
These partial results include 36.6% of overseas polling stations, where it’s Simion who is ahead, 55% to 45%.
Updated
'Stakes are huge,' former Polish president Kwaśniewski warns after close exit poll
And here is a snap reaction from former Polish president Aleksander Kwaśniewski – it was during his term 1995 to 2005 that Poland joined Nato and the EU – speaking on TVP Info.
“The stakes are huge.
We are fighting for Poland to be on the side of European democracies, [otherwise] it’d be on the side of European troublemakers, those who want to go down the [Hungarian PM Viktor] Orbán or [Slovak PM Robert] Fico route.”
He offers his public backing for Trzaskowski in the second round.
'Next two weeks will decide future' of Poland, PM Tusk says
Polish prime minister Donald Tusk just reacted to Polish exit polls, stressing the importance of the second round vote as he said “everything is at stake now” and “the next two weeks will decide the future” of Poland.
“Not one step back!,” he said.
Updated
'Really big result' for far-right Chega in Portugal
On Portugal: it will be a really big result for Chega if they really come above 20% in the final results – up from 18% at the last vote.
If the polls are right, then Chega’s rise continue – albeit not as dramatically as in the last two elections.
After taking 1.3% of the vote and picking up its first seat in the national assembly in the 2019 election, it won 7.2% of the vote in 2022, securing 12 seats. At the last general election in March last year, the party won 18% of the vote and took 50 seats.
Like Vox, its ideological bedfellows over the border in Spain, Portugal’s Chega party has, in recent years, thoroughly detonated the longstanding myth that the neighbouring countries’ 20th-century histories of dictatorship had inoculated them against far-right politics.
After massive breakthroughs over the past few years, both are now the third biggest parties in their national parliaments. Chega could even be the second biggest, according to one of the exit polls.
Chega has managed to capitalise on widespread dissatisfaction with Portugal’s mainstream left and right parties as the country continues to suffer a housing crisis, stressed health and education systems, and low wages.
As the political scientist André Azevedo Alves told me last time round, Chega’s leader, André Ventura, has proved thoroughly adept at leveraging political disenchantment and fears over corruption.
“It’s Ventura sensing that there is a political opportunity because of this widespread discontent with the political class, left and right,” he said. “I think that’s one of the main things that Chega feeds on.”
But judging by previous comments from other leaders, Chega appears to be no closer to entering government – largely due to the steadfast and enduring refusal of the AD leader, Luís Montenegro, to even contemplate any such deal.
The centre-right PM said no last year, and he is still saying no.
According to Montenegro: “Governing with Chega is impossible for three reasons: it isn’t reliable in its thinking; it behaves like a political weathervane, always changing its mind, and it’s not suited to the exercise of government.”
The small Liberal Initiative party – which could throw its weight behind Montenegro, bringing his coalition a handful of seats but leaving him well short of a majority in the country’s 230-seat assembly – has also categorically refused to do anything that would help Chega into power.
Recent months have also somewhat tarnished the Chega brand, showing that it, too, is susceptible to the kind of corruption and sleaze scandals it has been fond of railing against.
In January, Chega expelled one of its MPs from the party after he was accused of stealing suitcases at several airports. Another member of the party was caught drunk-driving the same month, while a third has been charged with paying for oral sex with an underage male who was 15 at the time.
Meanwhile, the party has returned to its trademark attacks on Portugal’s Roma community, prompting angry protests at some of its events. Speaking earlier this week, Ventura – who has previously accused the country’s Roma population of having “a chronic problem of dependence on benefits, delinquency and violence” – said he would stand up to “threats” from the Roma people.
Updated
Reactions show early battle lines for Polish run-off – snap analysis
Watching speeches by Trzaskowski and Nawrocki, you can clearly see the battle lines for the second round in Poland already emerging tonight.
Trzaskowski has made an early pitch to left-wing voters as he made a pledge to liberalise abortion laws and push the government to get on with its reforms.
He also portrays Nawrocki as a “radical” candidate, warning voters that he is “no Andrzej Duda”, the current conservative incumbent, but that he is much further to the right.
Meanwhile, Nawrocki makes it clear that he needs to win to stop prime minister Donald Tusk from getting “all the power” as he makes an appeal to right- and far-right voters to back him in the second round to “save Poland”.
Expect more of that rhetoric in the coming two weeks.
It is super, super close and flows from other candidates will play a crucial role here.
Updated
Incumbent centre-right party expected to win in Portugal – exit polls
There are two exit polls in Portugal, but Luís Montenegro’s Democratic Alliance is expected to come first in both of them, with somewhere between 29% and 34% of the vote.
The polls don’t seem to agree on who will be second, with Pitagórica poll saying it will be the far-right Chega (19.5% to 25.5%), just marginally ahead of the opposition Socialist party (PS) at 19.4% to 25.4%.
The CESOP-UCP exit poll has them the other way round, but with very similar numbers: PS at 21% to 26%, and Chega at 20% to 24%.
Updated
Polish presidential race is very close, projected winner Trzaskowski says
But, as Trzaskowski says in his immediate comments, the race is “very close”.
In fact, it is much closer than anticipated.
A win is a win tonight, but these results will make Trzaskowski’s team nervous ahead of the run-off in two weeks’ time.
Far-right libertarian Sławomir Mentzen is third with 15.4%, clearly capturing some of the disenchanted vote, as expected.
I attended his rally earlier this week, and you can read my report here:
There is also a surprise in the fourth place: it’s ultra far-right candidate Grzegorz Braun – under probe for using fire extinguisher to put out Hanukah candles in Polish parliament – with 6.2%, well above the expectations and ahead of any of the left-wing candidates.
Updated
Trzaskowski, Nawrocki through to run-off in Poland – exit poll
The two favourites in Poland – centrist Warsaw mayor Rafał Trzaskowski and radical-right historian Karol Nawrocki – are, as expected, safely through to the run-off on 1 June, according to the exit poll by Ipsos.
Rafał Trzaskowski (PO) 30.8%
Karol Nawrocki (PiS) 29.1%
Sławomir Mentzen 15.4%
Grzegorz Braun 6.2%
Adrian Zandberg 5.2%
Szymon Hołownia 4.8%
Magdalena Biejat 4.1%
Joanna Senyszyn 1.3%
Krzysztof Stanowski 1.3%
Marek Jakubiak 0.9%
Artur Bartoszewicz 0.5%
Maciej Maciak 0.4%
Marek Woch 0.1%
Updated
Exit polls in Poland, Portugal imminent
Exit polls in Poland and Portugal are imminent.
Ready?
Polish presidential hopefuls cast their votes
Given the Polish electoral blackout rules, we don’t have too many comments from key candidates, but here are their pictures from when they cast their votes earlier today.
Updated
Portugal prime minister hopes for ‘greater capacity to grow and prosper’
Speaking after he voted on Sunday morning, Portugal’s caretaker prime minister, the AD leader Luís Montenegro, said he was hoping for a good turnout and for an election that would “produce positive solutions [and] greater capacity for the country to grow and prosper, so that there can be greater social justice and more opportunities”.
He said Portugal wanted “more stability” as it returned to the polls for the third time since 2022. Montenegro, whose coalition is forecast to finish first but once again fall short of a majority, insisted he was taking nothing for granted.
“I will only think about the final speech after the results appear,” he told reporters in the city of Espinho.
“There is no point in thinking about it too soon. I am very calm, as is my habit. And also confident.”
The PS leader, Pedro Nuno Santos, called for huge participation in the election after he cast his ballot this morning, saying he did not want there to be any unpleasant surprises on Monday.
“This is the time to call for participation, for respect for democracy, for civic participation, for tolerant respect for everyone – but with a lot of participation, that’s what I want,” he said.
“If we don’t want to be surprised by things we don’t want on Monday, it’s important that people participate and vote.”
Andre Ventura, the leader of the far-right Chega party, shrugged off concerns about his recent ill health – he has been rushed to hospital twice during the final week of campaigning – and urged people to get out and vote.
“Today is not about my health,” he said in Lisbon. “It’s the health of democracy that is at stake … Make your choice, leave your house, choose the future of the country, regardless of what it is, regardless of who it is. Today it is in our hands,” he urged.”
Updated
Snap election 'unlikely to drastically alter' Portugal's landscape - explainer
Portugal returned to the polls for the third time in just over three years on Sunday to vote in a snap general election triggered by the country’s centre-right prime minister, Luís Montenegro, who is under pressure over his family’s business activities.
Montenegro, who leads the Social Democratic party – the largest party in Portugal’s ruling Democratic Alliance (AD) coalition – is facing political and judicial scrutiny over a data protection consultancy that he founded in 2021 and which he transferred to his wife and sons the following year.
The prime minister – who has denied any wrongdoing or ethical breaches – responded to the accusations by staging a vote of confidence in his administration in March, saying he wanted “to end the atmosphere of permanent insinuations and intrigues”. But he lost the vote and a fresh election was called.
The unexpected election is unlikely to drastically alter Portugal’s political landscape. Recent polls suggest a similar result to the last election in March 2024, putting the AD on about 33%, the opposition Socialist party (PS) on 26% and the far-right Chega party on 17%.
Last time round, the AD won 80 seats to the PS’s 78, while Chega, which is led by the former football pundit André Ventura, enjoyed a surge in support and increased its seat count from 12 to 50.
Once again, Portugal’s housing crisis has become a major issue during this latest campaign.
“We’re talking about the same things we did last year,” said Filomena Martins, the deputy editor of the online Observador newspaper.
'Make or break' vote in Poland's presidential election - explainer
Poles are voting in the first round of the presidential election on Sunday, in a vote seen as a “make or break” moment for the country’s pro-European coalition government, which is still attempting to reverse damage inflicted on the rule of law by the previous populist-nationalist administration it ousted two years ago.
Rafał Trzaskowski, the staunchly pro-European centrist Warsaw mayor from the prime minister Donald Tusk’s Civic Coalition (KO), is the favourite to win the election, but his lead over his conservative rival, the historian Karol Nawrocki, has narrowed over the last few weeks of the campaign.
Since coming to power in 2023 on a wave of discontent with the populist right Law and Justice party (PiS), the government led by the former European Council president Tusk has struggled to follow through on promises to reverse illiberal changes to the justice system and liberalise abortion laws.
The outgoing president, Andrzej Duda, is a close ally of the previous PiS government and a supporter of Donald Trump. He opposed the changes pursued by the new administration and blocked some decisions, including ambassadorial nominations.
A potential opposition win would extend the current standoff, prompting years of political instability.
In polls published before the country went into electoral silence on Friday, Trzaskowski, who lost to Duda in 2020, and Nawrocki were expected to comfortably come in the first two places, progressing to the run-off on 1 June.
However, in a sign of growing frustration among voters, the combined vote share of the top two candidates is forecast to be the lowest since the first presidential election in 1990.
Sławomir Mentzen, 38, a leader of the far-right Confederation party, is the outside candidate, who briefly challenged Nawrocki for second place but has faded over the past month.
Right, we will get back to Romania shortly, but let’s take a look at Poland and Portugal when we should get first numbers in the next 10 minutes.
So let’s take a look at what’s at stake there.
Dan marginally ahead after 49% votes counted
We are getting first official results through, and with 49.8% of votes counted, Dan is marginally ahead at 50.4% with Simion’s 49.6%.
I will bring you regular updates here.
We are getting more lines from Nicușor Dan’s first speech after the results were announced.
“There will be a difficult period ahead, necessary for economic rebalancing to lay the foundations of a healthy society. Please have hope and patience,” Dan said, as reported by Reuters.
The agency noted that if official results confirm the exit polls, Dan would need to nominate a prime minister to negotiate a majority in parliament to reduce Romania’s budget deficit - the largest in the EU – as well as to reassure investors and try to avoid a credit rating downgrade.
That point by Jon about exit polls being only as good as the answers they get from voters is absolutely crucial.
With so many Simion voters having little trust in the electoral process – in line with their candidate’s comments – there is potential for all sorts of problems with data if they, say, refused to answer pollsters’ questions.
And, as mentioned earlier, then we have the diaspora vote, not included in exit polls. With record numbers of voters overseas, they could play a significant role here.
For what it’s worth, Simion appears to be doubling down on his rejection of the exit polls: he just posted on X claiming without offering any further evidence that he is “the new president of Romania”.
Well: that’s not what the exit polls say, so let’s wait for more official results.
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Simion rejects exit poll results
But Dan’s rival, the far-right George Simion, is not willing to accept these numbers.
In fighting comments after the result was announced, he rejects the exit polls and quotes his own (unverified) data, claiming that he is actually ahead, in a passionate victory speech.
Expect this to be a long night.
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Romanians want ‘dialogue, not hatred’ – Dan
In his immediate comments after the exit polls were announced, Nicușor Dan praises the “impressive strength” of the Romanian society that wants “profound change”, and says the victory shows Romanians wanted “dialogue, not hatred”.
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High turnout a factor in Romanian vote – snap analysis
It’s perhaps not that surprising given massive 64.5% turnout, up from 53% in the first round. Analysts have all said a higher turnout would favour Dan.
But it’s worth remembering the first round exit polls underestimated Simion by nearly 10 points.
They depend on voters being honest about who they voted for.
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That’s a higher result for Nicușor Dan than perhaps expected. The turnout clearly plays a role here, too.
But these are just exit polls, and they do not seem to account for the crucial diaspora vote.
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Second exit poll CURS:
Nicușor Dan 54.1%
George Simion 45.9%
Bucharest mayor Nicușor Dan on course to win in Romania – exit poll
Exit poll Avangarde:
Nicușor Dan 54.9%
George Simion 45.1%
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Romanian exit polls are expected imminently.
Ready?
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Keep an eye on Romanian diaspora vote
A key point to watch for as the Romanian results start to come in after polling stations close at 9pm local time (8pm CET) will be the vote of the country’s large diaspora, which in the first round two weeks ago voted more than 60% for Simion.
Over the past couple of decades almost 20% of Romania’s population have gone looking for better opportunities abroad and estimates of the current diaspora begin at about 4 million. By 7pm local time, the astonishingly high number of 1.6 million already had cast their votes, including more than 260,000 in the UK.
“The diaspora has been strongly anti-system for some time, which now means they are strongly far-right,” said Cristian Pirvelescu, head of the National University of Political Studies and Public Administration in Bucharest.
“In Italy, where the Romanian community is more than 1 million, nearly 75% voted for Simion in the first round. Romanians abroad live in what is a kind of ‘virtual Romania’, very online, and they don’t believe in the traditional media.”
The far-right candidate also did well in Germany and Spain, which have large Romanian communities. “Their vote is a protest vote against the traditional parties, which are seen as corrupt,” said the Sciences-Po researcher Antonela Cappelle-Pogacean.
“It’s also a vote with socioeconomic motivations, since in these western societies, the Romanian diaspora is largely working-class. Finally, it’s also a vote about identity – they are in a way torn between their rebuilt lives and desire to return to Romania.”
In central and eastern Europe – countries such as Poland, Moldova and Hungary – the pro-European candidate, Bucharest mayor Nicusor Dan, finished first, most likely reflecting Simion’s opposition to sending further military aid to Ukraine. There are more than 900 polling stations abroad, with voting allowed over three days.
Whatever its motivations, the diaspora vote – perhaps more than 1 million ballots, as much as 10% of the first-round total – can clearly swing a tight election. And complicating matters further, few Romanian opinion polls, which are in any case not especially accurate, attempt to predict it.
Interestingly, however, one poll this week that did include voters living abroad showed Simion and Dan neck-and-neck. Turnout at home and abroad, all observers agree, will be critical on Sunday, with a higher participation rate seen as favouring Dan.
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Romanian exit polls expected soon
To make things more complicated, Romanian media reported that there are as many as three companies doing exit polls tonight.
With the race being so close, it may be best to wait a bit until we make any determination on the result, but we will bring you them as they drop.
And there is one more element in the Romanian vote that we need to keep an eye on and that makes things more complicated, and that it’s the (incredibly high) number of diaspora voters.
Over to Jon Henley to explain.
Romanian candidates speak of 'crucial' election to decide country's future
Both candidates in the Romanian election obviously have long cast their votes.
“This is a turning point, a crucial election,” the Bucharest mayor Nicușor Dan said as he cast his ballot, adding that he voted “for a European direction ... not Romania’s isolation”.
His far-right rival, George Simion, said he “voted against the inequalities and injustices done to the Romanian people” and “for our future to be decided by Romanian people”.
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'Pivotal' presidential run-off in Romania – explainer
Romanians are voting in a pivotal presidential run-off that could radically alter their country’s strategic alignment and economic prospects.
The Romanian contest, the most consequential of the three, pits a brash, EU-critical, Trump-admiring populist, Georgie Simion, against a centrist independent, Nicușor Dan, in a knife-edge vote that analysts have called most important in the country’s post-communist history.
Recent polls have shown the gap between the two candidates closing, with one putting them neck and neck and another placing Dan – who has described the vote as a battle between “a pro-western and an anti-western Romania” – ahead.
The vote is a rerun of last November’s ballot, won by a far-right, Moscow-friendly firebrand, Călin Georgescu, who was barred from standing again after the vote was cancelled amid allegations of campaign finance violations and Russian meddling.
Simion has promised to nominate Georgescu, who is under formal investigation on counts including misreporting campaign spending, illegal use of digital technology and promoting fascist groups, as prime minister if he becomes president.
Romanian presidents have a semi-executive role with considerable powers over foreign policy, national security, defence spending and judicial appointments. They can also dissolve parliament if MPs reject two prime ministerial nominations.
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We start the night in Romania, so let’s go straight to Jon Henley to quickly bring us up to date on what’s at stake tonight.
Welcome to Super Sunday
Dobry wieczór, boa noite, bună seara,
or simply good evening and welcome to our live coverage of Super Sunday in Europe with crucial elections in Poland, Portugal, and Romania.
It’s Jakub Krupa here, in Warsaw, to guide you through tonight’s exit polls, snap reactions and early results coming from the three EU countries.
We will start with Romania where the polls will close in about half an hour – 7pm BST, 8pm CEST, 9pm local time – followed by Poland and Portugal an hour later.
Romanians are voting in a pivotal presidential run-off that could radically alter their country’s strategic alignment and economic prospects.
The election pits a brash, EU-critical, Trump-admiring populist, George Simion, against centrist independent Bucharest mayor Nicuşor Dan in a knife-edge vote that analysts have called most important in the country’s post-communist history.
We will later move to Poland for the first round of the presidential election there which could be a pivotal moment for the country’s coalition government, and to Portugal which hosts its third election in three years.
It may take a little while before we get any conclusive results though as margins are expected to be fairly thin.
But, but, but – don’t worry! We will bring you all the key updates: starting with exit polls, through snap reactions and late polls, all the way to first analyses and official results.
I’ll bring you updates from our correspondents across Europe, including Jon Henley and Sam Jones who followed the campaigns in Romania and Portugal, and Jennifer Rankin in Brussels.
Ready? Let’s go.
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