Closing summary
… and on that note, it’s a wrap for today!
Top European officials met in the Netherlands to set up an international body to decide on tens of billions of euros of eventual reparations to compensate Ukraine over Russia’s invasion (10:39).
34 European leaers have signed a convention to formally create the International Claims Commission for Ukraine at a ceremony attended by the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy (12:23, 12:50, 12:59).
He earlier told the Dutch parliament that “every detail matters” in peace talks with US and Russia, as nothing in the proposed peace deal should be allowed to “become a reward for Russia’s aggression” (11:03, 11:08, 11:10, 11:14, 11:16, 11:21)
Meanwhile, Russia said it has not yet seen the latest proposals to come out from last night’s Berlin talks (10:47), as it played down the prospect of a Christmas ceasefire saying it was not interested in temporary solutions (12:02).
Separately,
Leaders of the eight “eastern flank” countries – that’s the Nordics, the Baltics, Bulgaria, Poland and Romania – have warned that Russia “remains threat today, tomorrow, and for foreseeable future,” as they met in Helsinki for talks on security and defence (14:27, 14:48, 14:55, 16:55).
French farmers are driving opposition to a massive transatlantic trade deal between five South American nations of the Mercosur bloc and the 27-nation European Union that officials say will likely lead to its delay, as they built makeshift barricades and blocked roads in protest (16:46).
The EU has confirmed it will water down its landmark 2035 ban on the sale of new petrol or diesel cars, yielding to heavy pressure from the car industry and leaders from several EU member states including Germany and Italy (15:51).
And that’s all from me, Jakub Krupa, for today.
If you have any tips, comments or suggestions, email me at jakub.krupa@theguardian.com.
I am also on Bluesky at @jakubkrupa.bsky.social and on X at @jakubkrupa.
Poland hails progress made by 'eastern flank' leaders on defence measures
Poland’s prime minister Donald Tusk hailed the work of the eight leaders of Europe’s so-called “eastern flank” (14:27) on strengthening their defences against the threat from Russia, telling reporters that “billions” will be invested in border and defence measures.
Speaking to reporters on his way back from Helsinki, Tusk said
“We are currently working … on this wall protecting against drones, and we are talking about billions in expenditure here,” Tusk said.
He said that broader plans to strengthen the border including “drones and shelters … but also civil defence activities” will see “nearly 10 billions” in expenditure, including various European funds.
“From the Polish point of view, the fact that the whole of Europe is financing the protection of the Polish border, because it is a European border, is absolutely crucial,” he said.
Poland in recent months repeatedly complained about Russia’s increasingly provocative behaviour, including the incursion of over 20 Russian drones into Polish airspace in September and last month’s rail sabotage incident.
EU's Mercosur deal could face delays as French farmers block roads
French farmers are driving opposition to a massive transatlantic trade deal between five South American nations of the Mercosur bloc and the 27-nation European Union that officials say will likely lead to its delay, AP reported.
Farmers turned out across France with heavy tractors this week to build makeshift barricades and block roads, tried and tested methods of pressuring the French government that have previously proved successful in winning concessions, the agency said.
AP noted that the farmers are incensed by the planned free-trade deal between the EU and the five active Mercosur countries — Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay and Bolivia — that would progressively remove duties on almost all goods traded between the two blocs over the next 15 years.
European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen is determined to sign the agreement, but needs the backing of at least two-thirds of member countries. It remains unclear whether France could find enough allies to block the deal, the news agency noted.
Many Europeans mistakenly think most immigrants are illegal, poll shows
Europe correspondent
Many Europeans mistakenly think most migrants are in their country illegally, according to a poll that found overwhelming opposition to any increase in migration and strong support for a significant reduction in numbers, including deportation.
Pluralities or majorities of between 44% and 60% of respondents polled in a survey by YouGov in Britain, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy and Spain said they thought “many” or “somewhat” more migrants were staying illegally than legally.
Estimates of people staying illegally in European countries are significantly lower than official figures for the foreign-born population. A 2023 study, for example, found that only 21% of immigrants in France had at one point been “undocumented”.
In Poland, the only central European country surveyed, the public was divided, with 36% believing there were more illegal than legal migrants in the country against 28% who believed the opposite, and 22% who thought the proportions were the same.
The seven-country survey found that majorities or near-majorities in all countries, ranging from 49% in Poland to 60% in Germany, favoured a “large decrease” in the number of migrants allowed to come to their country, with some still permitted.
Across the seven countries, about half – between 46% and 53% – said they supported a complete freeze on new arrivals entering the country, plus the departure of “large numbers” of recent migrants.
Large majorities (64%-82%) opposed any significant increase in the number of new migrants allowed to enter and most also rejected immigration remaining the same, with support for this scenario exceeding opposition only in Poland and Denmark.
Estonia ferry disaster in 1994 caused by bow failure not explosion, report confirms
The sinking of the Estonia ferry more than 30 years ago was caused by the failure of its bow section, not an explosion or collision as claimed by some, authorities have said, in a report aimed at finally closing the case on Europe’s worst civil maritime disaster since the second world war.
“The MV Estonia sank as a result of the collapse of its bow construction,” Estonian, Swedish and Finnish investigators said. “There is, therefore, no reason to start a new full-scale … investigation of the accident.”
On the night of 28 September 1994, the roll-on, roll-off ferry sank in the Baltic Sea during a storm, claiming the lives of 852 people.
An official investigation in 1997 concluded that the ferry’s bow shield had failed, causing rapid flooding and sending the vessel to the bottom.
But alternative theories have continued to propagate and in 2020, video from a television documentary showed hitherto unseen holes in the ship’s hull, prompting authorities to take a fresh look at the disaster.
The report, which was based on six separate examinations of the wreck site, interviews with survivors, modelling and technical analysis, concluded that the damage to the hull was caused by rocks on the sea bottom.
“The inspections do not reveal any signs that the MV Estonia collided with any other vessel or object during its voyage,” the investigators said. “Nor are there any signs that an explosion occurred on the ship.”
A preliminary report in 2023 blamed rocks for the holes in the hull. It also concluded that the ferry was not seaworthy at the time of its final voyage.
EU to water down landmark ban on new petrol and diesel cars
The EU has confirmed it will water down its landmark 2035 ban on the sale of new petrol or diesel cars, yielding to heavy pressure from the car industry and leaders from several EU member states including Germany and Italy.
Under current legislation manufacturers were obliged to ensure that 100% of production of cars and vans had zero emissions up to 2035.
The European Commission confirmed on Tuesday that this will now be reduced to 90%, enabling the continued manufacture of a portion of plug-in hybrid electric cars, or even combustion engines beyond 2035.
However, in a carrot-and-stick approach, the remaining 10% of assembly line output that is not carbon neutral will need to be compensated by other green measures on the factory floor, including the use of green steel made in Europe or use of biofuels in non-electric vehicles.
“This will allow for plug-in hybrids (PHEV), range extenders, mild hybrids, and internal combustion engine vehicles to still play a role beyond 2035, in addition to full electric (EVs) and hydrogen vehicles,” the commission said.
The commission has also relaxed targets for electric vans, reducing the requirements for a 50% reduction in carbon emissions by 2030 to 40%.
The move, which follows lobbying by chancellor Friedrich Merz and Italian prime minister Giorgia Meloni, will be seen as a victory for the European car industry which has struggled to make the transition to electric and now faces growing competition from Chinese rivals.
The decision, which had been widely anticipated in recent days, has already been denounced by the Green party in the European parliament which has said it amounts to a “gutting” of flagship legislation aimed at cutting Europe’s emissions.
Let’s take a quick look at other news across Europe.
Russia labels Deutsche Welle ‘undesirable’ organisation
Russia has blacklisted Germany’s news broadcaster Deutsche Welle (DW) as an “undesirable” organisation, which means anyone who works or supports such a group could be prosecuted in the country.
DW had already been declared a “foreign agent” by Kremlin, along with several other organisations or groups critical of Moscow’s invasion.
DW has a Russian-language service but closed its Moscow bureau in 2022 after threats it would be expelled. This was seen as a tit-for-tat move against Germany banning broadcasts by Russia’s RT state broadcaster in 2022.
Updated
They reinforced commitments to advancing “the Eastern Flank Watch”, which includes a European drone defence network.
They also outlined again Nato’s Article 5 significance and said EU specific defence efforts were complementary to that foundational defence and deterrence standing
Strengthening Europe’s defence readiness… in alignment with NATO plans and requirements is essential. Complementarity between NATO and the EU is not optional— it is a strategic imperative”
By uniting at the highest political level, we send a clear and unequivocal message: Europe’s Eastern Flank is a common responsibility and must be defended with urgency, leadership and resolve.
The security environment has changed irreversibly, and we must adapt with determination and speed.”
Updated
Some more from the Eastern Flank summit where leaders of the eight EU countries most exposed to Russia have met in Helsinki to shore up defence collaboration.
They led off their joint statement saying Russia is the “most significant, direct and long-term threat to security, peace and stability in the Euro-Atlantic area” and said that besides the invasion in Ukraine, Russia’s hybrid operations and sabotage against Europe were increasing.
Attempts to destabilise our societies must be viewed as part of Russia’s ongoing war of aggression against Ukraine,” the statement read.
We remain committed to increasing our support for Ukraine while ramping up pressure on Russia. We will also continue to work closely with our partners being targeted by Russian hybrid activities, especially the Republic of Moldova.
Updated
'Russia remains threat today, tomorrow, and for foreseeable future,' Finnish PM says
Leaders of the eight “eastern flank” countries – that’s the Nordics, the Baltics, Bulgaria, Poland and Romania – are now speaking at a joint press conference after their talks in Helsinki and they have a strong message on Russia.
Speaking alongside the leaders of Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Sweden, Finland’s prime minister Petteri Orpo says the meeting takes place as “Europe is facing some of the most serious and existential questions of our time.”
Orpo says that “we are closer to peace than ever before,” but warns that “we do not see any signs that Russia really wants peace.”
Russia remains a threat today, tomorrow, and for the foreseeable future, for the whole of Europe. This is the reason we are strengthening our cooperation.
He says:
“We share a strong political will to reinforce our common security and Europe’s defence, starting from the eastern flank.”
Estonian prime minister Kristen Michal hit similar tones as he says that “Europe’s security is closely tied to Ukraine.”
“If Russia is not strategically defeated in Ukraine, it will become bolder,” he warns.
He also calls for the adoption of the EU reparations loan for Ukraine at this week’s European Council.
“It is the best option to give Ukraine the financing it needs quickly, and it puts Ukraine into stronger position for a just and sustainable peace,” he says.
Sweden’s Ulf Kristersson repeats the warning:
“Russia is the long term defining threat to Euro-Atlantic security and the war of aggression against Ukraine threatens literally, not only the eastern border of the European Union, but the continent as a whole.”
Just a little bit of newsy nugget there at the very end of Zelenskyy/Schoof press conference, as the Ukrainian president says that the US is now expected to take the documents discussed last night in Berlin to Russia to talk about the proposed security guarantees, 20-point peace plan, and a reconstruction plan for Ukraine.
Zelenskyy and Schoof also get asked about the prospect of Ukraine joining the European Union.
Schoof stresses the Dutch “are fully supportive” of membership for the EU.
Zelenskyy says he sees the EU accession process as part of a broader discussion on Ukraine’s security guarantees, in the context of economic security.
He says “we know why and who is trying to block” the accession process.
(He means Hungary, which has long argued that, essentially, it would be wrong for the bloc to admit a country at war.)
Zelenskyy and Schoof get also asked about the European-led multinational force expected to help with maintaining the peace in Ukraine, if a deal is reached.
Schoof goes first and says that during the Berlin talks the new security guarantees “became very strong,” and the package being discussed “gives the real opportunity for Ukraine to negotiate with Russia.”
He says that the Netherlands would have to go through a parliamentary procedure if the country was to confirm its participation in the force.
Zelenskyy says that different countries will have different roles, from logistics through intelligence to troops deployment. He says “a lot of countries are really ready to help.”
Zelenskyy, Schoof back EU reparations loan as Ukraine could face 'financial challenges' without it
Ukraine’s Zelenskyy is now speaking at a press conference with the Dutch prime minister, Dick Schoof, and the pair just got asked about the use of frozen Russian assets and the EU’s proposal for a reparations loan.
Schoof says the Netherlands sees the loan as “the preferred option,” but he acknowledged legal concerns from a number of countries, including, critically, Belgium where Euroclear is based.
He says he agrees with Belgium that the risk needs to be shared by all countries with legally guarantees, so that “all EU member states take their fair share.”
“It will be a difficult decision, but I sincerely hope that we come to an agreement on Thursday and that the financial needs of Ukraine can be solved with the help of the frozen assets,” he says.
Zelenskyy acknowledges that Ukraine “definitely” faces “financial challenges,” and says “it is definitely not easy for Ukraine.”
He says it would be difficult for Ukraine to “stand strong” without this support and cover some of the financial issues it faces.
But he generally repeats his points on how important it is for the EU leaders to agree to the loan.
Peace plans ready to be presented to Russia in days, says Zelenskyy
Shaun Walker and Peter Beaumont
Volodymyr Zelenskyy says proposals negotiated with US officials on a peace deal to end Russia’s war in Ukraine could be finalised within days, after which American envoys will present them to the Kremlin.
After two days of talks in Berlin, US officials said on Monday they had resolved “90%” of the problematic issues between Russia and Ukraine, but despite the positive spin it is not clear that an end to the war is any closer, particularly as the Russian side is absent from the current talks.
In the early hours of Tuesday morning the Ukrainian president said the US Congress was expected to vote on security guarantees and that he expected a finalised set of documents to be prepared “today or tomorrow”. After that, he said, the US would hold consultations with the Russians, followed by high-level meetings that could take place as soon as this weekend.
“We are counting on five documents. Some of them concern security guarantees: legally binding, that is, voted on and approved by the US Congress,” he said in comments to journalists via WhatsApp. He said the guarantees would “mirror article 5” of Nato.
The main sticking point between the Ukrainian team and US negotiators remains the issue of land. Trump wants Ukraine to give up the parts of the Donbas region it still holds, while Ukraine wants to freeze the lines at the current point of contact. “We are discussing the territorial issue. You know it is one of the key issues. At this point, there is no consensus on it yet,” Zelenskyy said after the Berlin talks.
It is not clear how the two sides will proceed on the territorial issue, with Zelenskyy previously suggesting that a compromise solution such as a free economic zone could be theoretically possible if the Ukrainian people voted for it in a referendum. The critical stumbling block is likely to be when the plans are put to the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, who has given no sign he is willing to compromise on his war aims.
“If Putin rejects everything, we will end up with exactly what we are experiencing on our plane right now – turbulence,” said Zelenskyy, recording the comments after his plane took off from Berlin for the Netherlands for a series of meetings on Tuesday.
'If you start a war, you will be held to account,' EU's Kallas says
Speaking at the event in the Hague, EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said Russia cannot escape paying the bill for its war in Ukraine.
The commission, which will validate war damages in Ukraine to be paid by Russia, sends a message to future aggressors, Kallas said in comments reported by Reuters, that “if you start a war, you will be held to account”.
She also announced the EU would provide “up to one €1m” to pay for the preparatory work for the new commission.
Updated
Leaders sign treaty establishing international Ukraine war damages body
The treaty is now signed, establishing the International Claims Commission of Ukraine.
Zelenskyy, leaders call for accountability for Russia's acts against Ukraine
Ukraine’s Zelenskyy has just been speaking again at the launch of The International Claims Commission for Ukraine (10:39).
In his very brief remarks, he largely followed the same lines as in the Dutch parliament, saying that “all pressure on Russia must remain in place for as long as occupation of our land continue.”
“As long as our people remain in Russian captivity and until the Ukrainian children abducted by Russia are brought home, sanctions must limit Russia, until it shows respect for peaceful for peaceful life and the rights of its neighbours. And of course, of course, every Russian war crime must have consequences for those who committed them,” he said.
He said that making Russia accountable for its crimes is needed to “that others learn not to choose aggression.”
Speaking before him, the caretaker Dutch PM, Dick Schoof, warned that “there must be no impunity” for Russia’s acts in Ukraine.
“Today is all about justice, because without it, there can be no just and lasting peace. But justice doesn’t just follow automatically. We need to lay the groundwork and prepare as carefully as possible,” he said.
Similar sentiment was expressed by Moldova’s president Maia Sandu, as she warned that “where accountability is avoided or postponed, violence returns, often in more destabilising forms.”
“Accountability is a condition of security today and for the future. But accountability is not only about Ukraine, and it is not only about one aggressor and one victim. Accountability is about Europe, about every country in Europe, it is about whether Europe as a whole is willing to defend its peace,” she said.
Updated
Kremlin says Christmas truce depends on broader peace deal, Russia wants 'achieve our goals'
Meanwhile, the Kremlin said that a Christmas truce that Ukraine has proposed would depend on whether a peace deal is reached or not.
Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Monday that Kyiv supported the idea of a ceasefire, in particular for strikes on energy infrastructure, during the Christmas period.
Asked about the idea, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said: “The question now is whether we, as president (Donald) Trump says, will reach a deal or not.“
Peskov said Russia was unlikely to participate in such a ceasefire if Ukraine was focused on “short-term, unviable solutions” rather than a lasting settlement.
“We want peace. We don’t want a truce to give Ukraine a breathing space and prepare for a continuation of the war,” Peskov told reporters.
“We want to stop this war, achieve our goals, secure our interests, and guarantee peace in Europe for the future. That’s what we want.”
'Every single detail matters,' Zelenskyy says of peace talks, as he warns against rewarding Russia for aggression
Commenting on Berlin talks, Zelenskyy says he held “really intensive” talks with US counterparts in Germany, “working in a great detail on documents that could stop the war and guarantee security.”
But he says “every single detail matters,” adding that nothing in the proposed peace deal should be allowed to “become a reward for Russia’s aggression.”
“If the aggressor receives a reward, he starts to believe that war pays off,” he says.
He says “there is a hardly a crime against humanity that Russia has not committed,” making a passing reference to the shooting down of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur in 2014, and says that these acts “cannot simply be forgotten.”
“It cannot be that those who kill[ed] are suddenly treated as respectable partners,” he says, calling for detailed accountability.
He ends on a hopeful note:
I truly hope that the next time I address your parliament it will be with gratitude for a peace that has been achieved.
That ends his speech. He gets a long standing ovation.
Zelenskyy warns 'winter cold can become one of most dangerous weapons'
Zelenskyy then turns to the issue of energy security, as he says Russia “is deliberately targeting our infrastructure.”
“They know that in our region, the winter cold can become one of the most dangerous weapons. They try to use it against Ukrainians, against just ordinary people, against normal life, and that’s why it’s so important not to relax or rely on diplomacy alone.”
He then repeatedly thanks the Netherlands for its support with Patriot systems, F-16 aircraft, artillery and drones, and other elements of aid.
Zelenskyy urges Netherlands to back EU reparations loan, use of frozen Russian assets
He says the talks are “not only about a ceasefire, but about security guarantees” to make sure that Russia cannot attack Ukraine again in a few years’ time.
He says “criminals don’t change in a day,” and so the peace process requires strong, international guarantees for Ukraine, so there is “true accountability” for any violation of the settlement.
He then talks about his recent visit to Kupiansk, which Russia had claimed to control weeks ago. He says he will keep exposing “every single Russian falsehood” and propaganda.
He then turns to the ongoing discussion on reparations loan and the use of frozen Russian assets, a decision on which EU leaders need to make later this week.
He says that “these Russian assets can and must be fully, fully used to defend against Russia’s own aggression.” “The aggressor must pay.”
Zelenskyy has the Russian governing elites have disregard to people’s lives, but “they do count every dollar and every euro they lose,” which is “why a strong decision on Russian money is needed, and these funds must work to defend against Russia.”
“And I urge you to support this,” he says.
Updated
'We must make Russia accept there are rules in world,' Zelenskyy says
Zelenskyy now criticises Russia’s territorial demands or suggestions it could limit Ukraine’s ability to join international alliances.
He particularly calls out its demands for Ukraine to “give up parts of our land they haven’t even managed to conquer,” or demands “that Ukraine accepts limits on our right to join alliance and our sovereignty.”
He says Russia is a repeated offender.
He says:
“It’s not enough to force Russia into a deal. It’s not enough to make it stop killing.
We must make Russia accept that there are rules in the world and that it cannot deceive everyone. This is the path to lasting peace.”
'Most intense and focused negotiations' since war started, Zelenskyy says
Zelenskyy is now speaking.
He says we are “in the midst of the most intense and focused negotiations for peace since the beginning of this war.”
He says “we are not talking about a pause or a temporary, uncertain solution; we are working closely with partners to finally end this Russian war against Ukraine.”
But he says Ukraine still needs “the same strong political support” it’s had since the beginning of the war.
He picks up on Russian commentary saying the negotiations need to address “the root causes of the war, as it there is something inevitable that forces Russia to keep fighting.”
“They always blame others and always try to explain their wars through someone else’s actions, as if the reason for the aggression is never, never in Moscow, but always in their neighbours,” he says.
He says that Russia repeatedly chooses conflict over peace – from Chechnya to the Balkans, from Moldova to Syria, from central Africa to Ukraine.
“And Russians always say that they somehow are not guilty,” he says, and others are “expected to make concessions so that Russia might stop the bloodshed.”
Ukraine's Zelenskyy about to speak in Dutch parliament
Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy is about to speak in the Dutch parliament, hours before the International Claims Commission for Ukraine gets set up in the Hague.
House speaker Thom van Campen and Senate speaker Mei Li Vos welcome him to the chamber.
It will be the fourth time he addresses the parliament, but his words this morning will be watched particularly closely after last night’s Berlin talks.
Russia yet to see details of proposals, Kremlin says
We are now getting first lines from the Kremlin, saying that Russia has yet to see the details of proposals on security guarantees, and stressing that Moscow would not want a ceasefire “which will only provide a pause for Ukraine to better prepare for the continuation of the war,” Reuters reported.
I will bring you more as soon as we have it.
New European body to assess claims for reparations on Ukraine to be set up
Top European officials meet on Tuesday to set up an international body to decide on tens of billions of euros of eventual reparations to compensate Ukraine over Russia’s invasion, AFP reported.
The International Claims Commission for Ukraine will assess and decide on claims for reparations, including any amount to be paid out.
The body was expected to be agreed at a high-level summit Tuesday in The Hague attended by Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy and EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas.
The commission’s establishment follows the setting up of a so-called “Register of Damages”, which has already received more than 80,000 claims for reparations from individuals or organisations.
The reparations mechanism is being coordinated via the Strasbourg-based Council of Europe, the 46-nation group protecting human rights on the continent, AFP noted.
Updated
Morning opening: What are you saying, Russia?
After positive comments from European, Ukrainian and US leaders taking part in Berlin talks, the focus now shifts to Russia as we wait for Moscow’s first reaction to some of the proposals for ending the war in Ukraine discussed last night.
Deputy foreign minister Sergei Ryabkov said this morning that Moscow had no understanding of the discussions just yet, as it awaits a debrief from the US negotiators. He also ruled out any territorial concessions by Russia.
Given the notably very positive tone of the US comments – from both the US officials involved and the US president, Donald Trump – about “tremendous support” from Europe, the Europeans will be feeling that the pressure is now on Moscow to, even reluctantly and begrudgingly, take a step closer towards the proposed plan.
But, crucially, they will be thinking that even if Moscow says niet, as it has so many times before, it will be hard for the US to blame Europe and Ukraine for that, which could be crucial in tense and delicate relations with Washington.
Meanwhile, Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy continues his Europe tour ahead of this week’s crucial European Council meeting on the use of frozen Russian assets. He will be in the Netherlands today, addressing the Dutch parliament, and meeting with the country’s prime minister, Dick Schoof, among others.
Other EU leaders will also be busy. Finland’s prime minister, Petteri Orpo, hosts the first Eastern Flank Summit in Helsinki, bringing together leaders from the Nordics, the Baltics, Bulgaria, Poland, and Romania.
I will bring you all the key updates throughout the day.
It’s Tuesday, 16 December 2025, it’s Jakub Krupa here, and this is Europe Live.
Good morning.
