Olive branch of the week was handed out by Pep Guardiola after his side’s win over Crystal Palace, when the Manchester City manager said he hoped Manchester United would go all the way and win the Europa League because it would be amazing to have five English clubs in the Champions League next season.
So it would, though looking around at the standard of competition in Europe, some are going to have to pull their socks up to make any more impression on the knockout stages than they managed this time. Monaco scored six goals against Manchester City, proceeding to the last eight by virtue of claiming three of them at the Etihad, yet faced with Italian standards of defending they managed a single goal against Juventus, and that a mere consolation late in the second leg.
Only Chelsea, of the likely English qualifiers, look anything like that solid at the back. Much has been made of Antonio Conte’s inspired switch to 3–4–2–1, and N’Golo Kanté was a deserved winner of both end-of-season player awards, but Chelsea’s success has owed a great deal to the quality and consistency of that backline of three. David Luiz was perhaps the signing that made the difference, though César Azpilicueta and Gary Cahill have played in every league game this season and let very little past. Tottenham’s defence is next best, as the league table indicates, though Spurs are going to have to get to grips with Europe and Wembley a little more quickly than they did this season if they are going to make progress.
The rest of the contenders have not yet been decided, although we do know that United will be there if they can get through two more Europa League games to lift the trophy in Stockholm. They are not as well-placed as they would like in their semi-final against Celta Vigo – as José Mourinho has mentioned a few times, they had enough chances in the first leg to make passage to the final in store – yet despite their strong second-leg showings in this season’s event it will be a surprise if a full-strength United cannot press home a 1-0 advantage at Old Trafford.
There seems little doubt that awarding a Champions League pass to the winners has given the Thursday night competition a purpose and kudos that it lacked a few years ago, especially as it will usually carry a guarantee of a place in the group stage, though the law of unintended consequences has been at work again and there have been unforeseen repercussions in the domestic leagues.
The Champions League already casts a big enough shadow over the Premier League without increasing the number of places on offer from four to five. But for the Europa League get-out-of-jail card, for example, Mourinho’s unbeaten record in competitive matches against Arsène Wenger might still be intact. Had he not been selecting a team with the second leg against Vigo in mind, one would have thought Mourinho capable of finding a side that could at least have gained a draw at the Emirates. Although a single point would not have been much use to United, it would more or less have spelled the end of Arsenal’s top-four hopes, whereas Wenger and his side can still see a narrow sliver of opportunity.
At least Mourinho waited until injuries and fixture-overcrowding forced his hand. In Spain, Vigo have put all their eggs into the Europa League basket to the extent of losing five of their past six league matches. That is one reason why they sit 12th in La Liga, a berth not normally associated with European competitions. Please do not mention Leicester. Nothing that has happened at the King Power Stadium over the past two or three seasons has anything to do with normality.
Lyon have not been doing a great deal better in France, losing two of their past four league games, though at least they have retained fourth place and are on course to qualify for the Europa League again next season through league position. Just as well, since they have a 4-1 deficit to overcome when their second leg against Ajax gets under way.
The situation in the Netherlands is arguably most intriguing of all, as Ajax, in an unassailable second place, have already qualified for the Champions League. They do not need to win the Europa League for that reason, yet if they could do so it would be beneficial because they would go in at the group stage rather than having to play a qualifying round and a play-off. At the moment the Dutch champions claim a group stage place and the runners-up up have to pre-qualify, though even that will change next season, when due to the falling Eredivisie coefficient not even the champions will gain automatic admission to the Champions League.
Feyenoord could be the last Dutch team to do it for a while, though judging by the way they blew their intended coronation with a 3-0 defeat in a Rotterdam derby at Excelsior last week Giovanni van Bronckhorst and his players cannot take anything for granted. Ajax are one point behind and poised to take advantage of any further slips when the season concludes on Sunday. Ajax are away to Willem II (12th), while Feyenoord entertain Heracles Almelo (9th).
If the top two win, which they should, Feyenoord will be champions. But by then Ajax could be in the final of the Europa League. There was a suggestion that should Feyenoord be crowned champions for the first time this century – their last title was in 1999 – their great rivals might be able to take the shine off the achievement by claiming a group stage place through the Europa and downgrading Feyenoord’s reward to a play-off place. Uefa has just confirmed this will not be the case; in the event of the above scenario the Netherlands would have two teams straight into the group stages.
Nor can United qualify through the back door – possibly the cat-flap in the back door – should they lose to Ajax in Stockholm if they get there. The place Ajax gained through league position would not go to the beaten finalists but to a third-placed team from the Netherlands or a second-placed team from the Czech Republic.
One other facet to an already complicated situation is that Ajax winning the Europa League would improve the Dutch coefficient, so that Eredivisie champions could soon be better favoured for Champions League qualification within a couple of seasons. It is all quite intricate, but as far as the Europa League is concerned, the winner takes it all, with the loser standing small. Which sounds fair enough for a final taking place in Sweden.
