Group B: what do England and Wales need?
England need only to avoid defeat against Slovakia to guarantee their progress into the knockout stages of Euro 2016. Victory for Wales would secure progress.
If both England and Wales win
If both sides win their final matches then England will top the group with seven points and face one of the best third-placed teams in the next round. Wales would finish second with six points and meet the runners-up from Group F, which contains Portugal, Iceland, Hungary and Austria.
If one team wins
If England win but Wales draw then the Welsh would still finish in second place with four points to Slovakia’s three. Should England be held by Slovakia and Wales win then Chris Coleman’s side would top the group with their neighbours having to settle for second place.
If both teams draw
A draw for both home nations would see the table remain as it is now, with England and Wales again going through in first and second place respectively and Slovakia in third.
If Wales lose
Should Chris Coleman’s team lose to Russia they will need England to beat Slovakia in order to potentially remain in the tournament as one of the best third-placed teams. Defeat by Russia would see them finish third ahead of Slovakia, whom they beat in their opening game; when two teams are level on points the result of their match against each other is used as a tie-breaker before their overall record. Anything less than an English win would see Wales finish bottom of the group.
If England lose
If England lose then they cannot finish top of the group, as Slovakia would move ahead of them with six points. The best Welsh result for England in this case would be a draw, which would keep England in second place ahead of Wales thanks to Thursday’s win acting as a tie-breaker. A Wales victory over Russia would move England down to third, and a Russia win could do the same if they were to finish with a superior goal difference.
Group C: Northern Ireland
If Northern Ireland win
Should Michael O’Neill’s team beat Germany they will qualify, and will do so as group winners if Poland fail to beat Ukraine.
If they draw
If Northern Ireland draw with the world champions they will finish third even if Poland lose to Ukraine, as the Poles beat them in their opening match and would therefore finish above them on the head-to-head. Though Northern Ireland would stand a very good chance of progressing as one of the four best third-placed teams.
If they lose
Northern Ireland will finish third regardless, as even if Ukraine beat Poland to draw level on points with them, O’Neill’s side would be ahead of Ukraine on the head-to-head meeting, though their chances of being one of the four best third-placed sides would be hit.
Group E: Republic of Ireland
If Republic of Ireland win
Victory over Italy, who have already qualified as group winners, will give Ireland four points and a very good chance of progressing as at least one of the best third-placed teams. If Belgium avoid defeat against Sweden, Belgium will finish second, as they would finish above the Irish on the head-to-head. If Sweden and Ireland both win, then goal difference will be a factor, so Ireland would need to beat Italy by a winning margin at least two goals greater than Sweden’s over Belgium. If they do they will finish second and qualify.
If they draw
They’re 99.9% out. A draw in Lille would mean Belgium would have to beat Sweden to ensure third place for Martin O’Neill’s team. But the state of play in the other groups means Ireland’s points tally and goal difference would make it almost impossible for them to be ranked as one of the four best third-placed teams.
If they lose
They’re out and in bottom spot, unless Sweden lose to Belgium by at least two goals more than the margin by which Ireland are beaten by Italy.
