You cannot beat a tournament draw for phoney excitement, especially one that allows commentators in the UK to reach for the Battle of Britain headlines and get busy with Gareth Bale cut-outs.
There is nothing wrong with that sort of hoopla, other than it would have been better suited to a knockout round meeting between England and Wales which is now unlikely to happen. While there may be a certain amount of parochial pride at stake when the two sides line up at Lens – Chris Coleman could become the first Wales manager to achieve a tournament victory over England, Roy Hodgson’s hopes of carrying on into the next World Cup would be dented if England do not win – it can be seen at a glance that both nations have a fair chance of progressing from Group B. England and Wales could win their opening games before they meet, for example, and in this tournament, with only eight teams being removed at the group stage, that is going to count for a lot.
It is only a slight exaggeration, with 16 of 24 teams going through, to suggest that any side with a win under their belt can practically start making plans for the knockout stage. After that it is merely a matter of positioning within the group so that the winners can take on a lesser-placed side in the round of 16. In the case of Group B, should England or Wales be so lucky, it has already been determined that the top team will face one of the third-placed qualifiers next, the nearest thing to a bye into the quarter-finals that a tournament of this stature has ever thrown up.
This is not to suppose that England will top their group and are therefore a sure bet for the quarter-finals, far from it. Anyone with memories of England’s last two World Cups – the 2012 Euros in between were slightly better – will know not to take anything for granted. But England finished bottom of Group D in Brazil last summer, eliminated before their third game even kicked off, and unless Russia and Wales have improved without anyone noticing that scenario appears unlikely to repeat itself.
It is already being said that while the expanded tournament format provided a better chance for the smaller teams and made for a few surprises in qualifying, the relative ease of the group stages will mean a slow start in France with interest only quickening when the knockout stages are reached and the fancied nations begin to face each other. While it may work out that way, the character of a tournament is never easy to predict in advance. Every time formats are tinkered with the law of unexpected consequences comes into play.
If winning the first game more or less guarantees progress it usually follows that losing is to be avoided at all costs. In this case it might not and the possibility of a second chance could prevent early games from proving cagey, defensive affairs. In Group E, for instance, Belgium and Italy are favourites to go through but they meet in the opening round. Should either side lose they would want to make sure of a win in their next game against the Republic of Ireland or Sweden, which could be a trickier situation than they had bargained for depending on which of those two sides had won their first match, though essentially Belgium or Italy would always fancy themselves against Ireland or Sweden.
While it is hard to see any major teams going out at the group stage one or two might get through in second or third place, which in turn would confound the theory that group winners are going to get everything their own way. If the process is going to prove as predictable as everyone says it is it ought to be possible to identify at this stage which teams will be eliminated. The six teams likely to finish bottom of their groups should readily suggest themselves, so let’s have a go.
In Group A: Romania. Albania might seem to be the obvious choice but they are making their first appearance in a major tournament and are thought capable of a surprise. That being the case they might spring it against Switzerland in their opening game and that would leave the Swiss needing to pick up points against Romania because they face France in their final match. The hosts might have two wins by then and be unconcerned about the result but that is the way group stages can go. Romania still seem most at risk.
Group B: Russia. It could be Wales because Slovakia can be expected to pick up a few points, but in the interests of diplomacy it is probably best to plump for Fabio Capello’s former side at this stage. Whoever is in charge, at present it is CSKA Moscow’s Leonid Slutsky, Russia have a poor tournament record.
Group C: Northern Ireland. Tough group. Sorry.
Group D: Czech Republic. Turkey going through is not a given but the Czechs have the holders, Spain, first-up, followed by Croatia. By the time they get to play Turkey it may be too late although the showdown in Lens could be for a qualification place.
Group E: Republic of Ireland. Unless they can win their opening game against Sweden, of course, which would give them a great chance. On paper the Swedes never look much but they usually scrub up in tournaments quite well.
Group F: Hungary. Iceland also look vulnerable but they play Portugal first while Hungary play them last. Iceland are making their tournament debut, Hungary reappearing for the first time in decades. They meet in Marseille for what could be the key match.
The two least-impressive third-placed teams will also go out and it is an interesting question whether they will come from the stronger groups, C or E, or the weaker ones. Which teams might pick up points without getting a win? Albania and Sweden, perhaps, possibly Wales. That should leave the usual suspects ready to start the tournament proper when the round of 16 gets under way in the last week of June.
Back in 1996, when England hosted the tournament, there were only 16 teams in from the start and that was twice the number that had participated in the 1992 competition. Denmark won that with zero preparation and against all expectation, though Uefa seem to have done its best to remove the possibility of similar surprises with the present generous format.
While some groups are harder than others there is no group of death, no possibility of a strong team having to leave early unless they perform absolutely abysmally. Naturally there are bound to be surprises, do not imagine for a moment the eight early departures already know and accept their fate, but increasingly they seem likely to be little ones. It will not be that much of a surprise to find all the major players shaping up for the last eight, even England. The tournament appears to have been designed that way.
