Economic and geopolitical trends are both cycling downward, Eurasia Group President Ian Bremmer and Chairman Cliff Kupchan write in their '"Top Risks 2020" report, out today.
The big picture: "Globalization is key," the authors write. The global economy is steadily fragmenting into two systems as the U.S. and China decouple and weaponize global trade and supply chains, ultimately creating a "split personality" globalization.
Why it matters: "This deteriorating environment is much more likely to produce a global crisis."
The global economy, after emerging from the great recession of 2008 with the longest expansion of the post-war period, is now softening. ...
And the world is now entering a deepening geopolitical recession, with a lack of global leadership as a result of American unilateralism, an erosion of U.S.-led alliances, a Russia in decline that wants to undermine the stability and cohesion of both the U.S. and its allies, and an increasingly empowered China under consolidated leadership that’s building a competitive alternative on the global stage.
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