WARSAW, Poland — Donald Tusk is spoiling for a fight to reverse Poland’s drift to the European Union’s fringe.
The former president of the European Council announced on Saturday that he’s returning to lead his country’ biggest opposition group, the Civic Platform, which propelled him to two terms as prime minister and the top level of politics on the continent.
The decision puts Tusk on a collision course with Jaroslaw Kaczynski, whose nationalist ruling Law & Justice Party has since 2015 transformed Poland into an EU rogue state that has been repeatedly sued for eroding democratic standards.
In what’s increasingly looking like a final duel between arch-nemeses in a rivalry that goes back almost two decades, the clash could determine whether the EU’s biggest eastern member steers back into the bloc’s mainstream or continues to follow Hungary Prime Minister Viktor Orban down the path toward authoritarianism.
“I’m back 100%,” Tusk told a party conference in Warsaw on Saturday. “I’m back to end this nightmare” and “bring back faith in winning.”
Tusk’s return to Polish politics — he now leads the European People’s Party in Brussels — comes as Law & Justice’s grip on power looks particularly vulnerable, with its ruling coalition riven by conflict and defections that have eaten away at its slim parliamentary majority.
But the 64-year-old veteran politician must win over the public and potential allies, which may prove difficult, with many Poles remembering his departure for the European stage following years of lackluster reforms, an unpopular decision to raise the retirement age and a taping scandal that involved some of his party’s leading politicians.
The leaks dominated headlines, painted his allies as out of touch with regular people and helped pave the way for Law & Justice’s defeat of Civic Platform in 2015 elections. The most recent opinion poll showed 60% of Poles don’t want Tusk back. Meanwhile, a new generation of opposition leaders, including his fellow Civic Platform members and the increasingly popular upstart party of former Got Talent! host Szymon Holownia, remain skeptical.
Kaczynski’s grip on his party remains firm despite some recent setbacks. Also on Saturday, Law and Justice is due to re-elect the 72-year-old to what’s most likely his final term as party leader. In previous head-to-head contests, Civic Platform under Tusk repeatedly bested Law & Justice.
“I’d consider it a good thing for the country if someone who won with Kaczynski seven times is now ready to leave his position in Brussels to wage a titanic battle for democratic and European Poland,” said Tusk ally and former foreign minister Radoslaw Sikorski.
While Law & Justice has bolstered its popularity with generous financial handouts to families and an appeal to patriotism, the crucial issue for Civic Platform is the country’s place in Europe. Poland has been repeatedly sued for alleged attempts to undermine judicial independence and is now likely to become a target of another lawsuit over attempts to limit LGBTQ rights.
The only viable option for the pro-EU opposition to win back power is to back joint candidates in elections, as Law & Justice remains the most popular party. The next general election is scheduled for late 2023.
While that’s something Tusk may want to broker, his rivalry with Kaczynski may fail to resonate with the current electorate, which is starting to be dominated by younger voters, according to Renata Mienkowska-Norkiene, a political scientist from Warsaw University.
“Everything has changed since he left Polish politics,” she said. Still, “what seems impossible at first glance, might be necessary for Poland to stay inside the European Union,” she said.
