Afternoon summary
- Theresa May and Nicola Sturgeon have held their first meeting since Sturgeon called for a second referendum on Scottish independence. The meeting was described as “cordial” and “businesslike”. Earlier May used a visit to the Department for International Development office in East Kilbride to say she would never allow the union of England and Scotland to become “looser and weaker”. (See 12.59pm.) Labour’s Scottish MP Ian Murray said:
It is risible for Theresa May to say she wants the UK to be ‘more united’ when she, her party and her government have done so much to divide it. The prime minister says she will not allow the UK to become looser or weaker; yet she herself has helped loosen and weaken it. If we emerge stronger and more unified from the Brexit process, it will be no thanks to her and the Tory Brexit fanatics whose every wish and whim she harbours.
- Labour’s Sir Keir Starmer (see 2.58pm) and Ukip’s Paul Nuttall (see 4.28pm) have both, separately, set out six tests that they will use to decide whether or not the final Brexit deal is a success. But their priorities are very different.
- Brexit must not be allowed to damage security co-operation with the EU in the wake of the Westminster terror attack, London mayor Sadiq Khan has insisted. As the Press Association reports, beginning a three-day visit to Brussels and Paris, Khan said it is now more important than ever for the UK and its neighbours to strengthen bonds to fight home-grown terrorism. Khan told ITV London:
The reality is we have got excellent links with the European Union. We share intelligence, we co-operate closely. It is really important that even though we may leave the European Union, we carry on working closely with our friends across Europe. It will be crucial over the coming period to make sure that we keep the close co-operation that we have got, so that we can continue to work together to defeat terrorism.
- Boris Johnson, the foreign secretary, has postponed a planned visit to Russia in order to attend a meeting with Nato counterparts, including US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson. As the Press Association reports, the Brussels gathering was rescheduled to March 31 after Tillerson indicated he could not attend on its original planned date of April 5 to 6 because of a US visit by Chinese President Xi Jinping. But the new date clashes with Johnson’s mooted visit to Moscow at the invitation of foreign minister Sergey Lavrov, which would have been the first by a UK foreign secretary in more than five years.
That’s all from me for now.
But I’ll be back later with a separate blog to cover the BBC’s Brexit Question Time special, starting at 8.30pm. The participants include David Davis, Sir Keir Starmer, Nick Clegg and Alex Salmond.
Britain After Brexit #bbcqt special live Monday at 8.30pm @DavidDavisMP @Keir_Starmer @nick_clegg @SuzanneEvans1 @AlexSalmond @MelanieLatest pic.twitter.com/7RJ2Bp2fWr
— BBC Question Time (@bbcquestiontime) March 24, 2017
Sky’s James Matthews has this on why Theresa May and Nicola Sturgeon were meeting in an unassuming hotel room. (See 3.53pm.)
Theresa May met @NicolaSturgeon in Glasgow hotel room after Downing Street turned down offer of (more secure) Scot Govt building nearby
— James Matthews (@jamesmatthewsky) March 27, 2017
Ukip's six Brexit tests - Analysis
Ukip’s six Brexit tests are more specific than Labour’s. But they serve the same purpose: setting out policy, and laying traps for the government.
Ukip needs to be argue that those who voted for Brexit have somehow been betrayed because, without that grievance, the party loses its much of its electoral raison d’être. And these tests serve as the prequel to the 2020 Ukip election manifesto, which will probably focus a great deal on fishing and finances. But, those two issues aside, it is remarkable how much the rest of the Ukip demands dovetail with Theresa May’s own agenda.
Here is an assessment.
1 - Parliament must resume its supremacy of law-making with no impediments, qualifications or restrictions on its future actions agreed in any leaving deal.
Does May want this?: Yes. Her priorities for Brexit are getting back control of immigration and extracting the UK from the grip of the European court of justice, so she and Ukip essentially want the same thing.
Will May get this?: Mostly, yes. Ukip wants the UK to “wholly remove itself from the jurisdiction of the ECJ” and May is demanding this too, although there is speculation that certain future agreements - eg, on data sharing - could involve an element of ECJ compliance. Ukip also wants the deal to include nothing committing the UK to remaining a member of the European court of human rights. May is likely to agree because in the past she has backed leaving the ECHR, although that is not government policy now.
2 - Britain must resume full control of its immigration and asylum policies and border controls.
Does May want this?: Yes. Along with rescuing the UK from the clutches of the ECJ, this is May’s priority.
Will May get this?: Yes. The Ukip test also says the government must make good on its promise to cut annual net migration to below 100,000, but it does not set a timeframe for this. May is also committed to this target, but without saying when it might be achieved.
3 - Leaving the EU must involve restoring to the UK full maritime sovereignty.
Does May want this?: May has said little about her plans for fishing, but it has been reported that she intends to pull out of the 1964 London convention to enable British fishermen to take control of the 200-mile maritime exclusive economic zone after Brexit.
Will May get this?: Ukip wants the UK to resume complete control of the maritime exclusive economic zone. In theory this is possible, but in practice it is possible or even likely that the government may compromise to ensure fishermen continue to get preferential access to the EU market. This Commons library briefing note (pdf) explains this in more detail.
4 - The UK must retake its seat on the World Trade Organisation and resume its sovereign right to sign trade agreements with other countries.
Does May want this?: Yes. May has said that the UK is leaving the single market and she has set up a new department to sign trade deals with other countries.
Will May get this?: Yes. Ukip is pushing at an open door.
5 - There must be no final settlement payment to the EU, and no ongoing payments to the EU budget after Brexit.
Does May want this?: Ukip says there must be “no final settlement payment” and no payments to the EU budget after the UK leaves. May has said the UK will not carry on making “vast” contributions to the EU budget, but she has not ruled out a final payment of some kind. The UK will meet its obligations, she says.
Will May get this?: She will not get the “no final settlement payment” deal that Ukip want because she has signalled that she does not think that is realistic.
6 - Brexit must be done and dusted before the end of 2019.
Does May want this?: Yes. May wants to leave the EU by March 2019. Ukip says there must be no “open-ended transition”. May accepts the need for a transitional period afterwards, but like Ukip she is opposed to being “open-ended”.
Will May get this?: Probably, although it depends how you define “open-ended”. May is unlikely to agree a full UK-EU trade deal within two years, but there could be a transitional period to allow an outline agreement to be converted into a full, legally-binding one. As long as an end date was agreed by 2019, May would be able to say this was not “open-ended”.
Theresa May and Nicola Sturgeon met in a Glasgow hotel. At least no one will be able to accuse them of wasting money on a palatial suite. On the basis of this picture, the setting looks remarkably humdrum.
Here are some pictures of the May/Sturgeon meeting. These are from Sky’s Tom Boadle.
No broadcast cameras were allowed in to May and Sturgeon's meeting so body language experts will have to make do with these PA stills. pic.twitter.com/Cilz6SIABn
— Tom Boadle (@TomBoadle) March 27, 2017
And here is Nicola Sturgeon arriving for the talks.
Now Scotland's FM Nicola Sturgeon has arrived. @itvnews pic.twitter.com/zdjSXK6yHB
— Peter A Smith (@PeterAdamSmith) March 27, 2017
Theresa May has arrived for her meeting with Nicola Sturgeon. This is from ITV’s Peter Smith.
Prime Minister Theresa May arrives in Glasgow for talks with Nicola Sturgeon. @itvnews pic.twitter.com/gaqAO8erWL
— Peter A Smith (@PeterAdamSmith) March 27, 2017
Labour's six Brexit tests - Analysis
Labour and Ukip have both produced six tests today that they will use to judge the outcome of Brexit. In both cases, it is a way of setting out party policy: quite precise for Ukip; much vaguer for Labour, but Sir Keir Starmer has to accommodate a much wider cross-section of views in his party. And in both the tests have been constructed as a means of exposing future government failings.
The Labour tests (see 10.53am) are mostly very general and, surprisingly, Theresa May would happily sign up to almost all of them. The only exception is the second one, cunningly included because it will almost certainly enable Labour to accuse the government of breaking a promise David Davis himself made to MPs in the Commons. (Ian Dunt has written a good blog explaining how Davis came out with the incriminating quote because he appeared to get carried away in an exchange with Anna Soubry.)
But the wording of the Labour tests is broad-brush, and it is likely that by 2019 Labour will be able to argue that the government has failed on at least two others (5 and 6), and possibly three others (if 1 is included as well).
Here is an assessment. I will try the same exercise with the Ukip one soon.
1 - Does it ensure a strong and collaborative future relationship with the EU?
Does May want this?: May and ministers like Boris Johnson have repeatedly stressed that leaving the EU does not mean leaving Europe, and that they want to have a strong, positive relationship with the EU after Brexit. So they would back this 100%.
Will May get this?: That very much depends. Starmer’s formula is quite vague, but it would be hard to see how the UK-EU relationship could be described as “strong” if the talks end acrimoniously.
2 - Does it deliver the “exact same benefits” as we currently have as members of the single market and customs union?
Does May want this?: Ideally, yes, and David Davis is on record as saying that he would like to achieve this, but Downing Street is distancing itself from Davis’s comment (see 12.40pm) because it knows that the chances of retaining the “exact same benefits” of SM and CU membership are tiny.
Will May get this?: EU leaders are agreed that it would be wrong to allow the UK to “cherry-pick” - ie, to get the benefits of SM/CU membership, without facing any of the disadvantages - and so the answer is almost certainly no.
3 - Does it ensure the fair management of migration in the interests of the economy and communities?
Does May want this?: May’s key demand is for “control” of migration. Starmer is deliberately using a softer term, “management”. He is not defining what this means, but it implies contro;, and so in practice there is little difference between the two demands.
Will May get this?: Yes, because she has made it a priority. It is possible that Labour could decide that May’s outcome fails its test because her migration policy is so draconian that it is not “fair” although, with ministers stressing the need to ensure employers can still hire from the EU, the outcome is likely to pass Labour’s test.
4 - Does it defend rights and protections and prevent a race to the bottom?
Does May want this?: May and other ministers, especially David Davis, have stressed their determination not to undermine workers’ rights. But May has also floated the prospect of turning the UK into a low-regulation tax haven if the EU does not offer a trade deal, which Labour would oppose vigorously.
Will May get this?: After Brexit the UK will have full control of employment rights and so May can protect them if she wants. But Labour fear that over time rights may be undermined.
5 - Does it protect national security and our capacity to tackle cross-border crime?
Does May want this?: Yes, not least because she is a former home secretary with a particularly strong interest in national security.
Will May get this?: That depends on how you define defending the capacity to tackle cross-border crime. The government wants as far as possible to retain cooperation on tackling crime, but disentangling the UK from the EU’s multiple justice and home affairs agencies and agreements without having some negative effect may be hard.
6 - Does it deliver for all regions and nations of the UK?
Does May want this?: May says she wants to get a deal that delivers for all the devolved administrations, and is making that claim again in Scotland today.
Will May get this?: Almost certainly not, if the devolved administrations are anything to go by. The SNP is calling for an independence referendum because it thinks May’s Brexit will be so bad for Scotland, the Welsh government has criticised her stance too and in Northern Ireland, where there is no executive, politicians are seriously worried about the impact of Brexit on the peace process.
Updated
May confirms she is opposed to second Scottish independence referendum during Brexit talks
Speaking in Glasgow, Theresa May has confirmed that she will not give in to Nicola Sturgeon’s call for a referendum on Scottish independence before Brexit takes place. Asked about this, May said:
My position is very simple and it hasn’t changed.
It is that now is not the time to be talking about a second independence referendum and that’s for a couple of reasons.
First of all, now is the point when we are triggering article 50, we’re starting negotiations for leaving the European Union. Now is the time when we should be pulling together, not hanging apart. Pulling together to make sure we get the best possible deal for the whole of the UK.
Also I think it would be unfair on the people of Scotland to ask them to make a significant decision until all the facts were known, at a point where nobody knows what the situation is going to be.
My position isn’t going to change, which is that now is not the time to be talking about a second independence referendum.
Theresa May said leaving the EU would be a “great national moment”, as she reinforced her claims that a unified UK is a more powerful force on the world stage in her speech to aid and development officials in East Kilbride.
In the closing phases of a short speech to civil servants in the Department for International Development where she sought to make a positive case for retaining the union, she said the different parts of the UK did “amazing things” together, adding:
So as Britain leaves the European Union, and we forge a new role for ourselves in the world, the strength and stability of our union will become even more important, not just for the good that standing together to our own people here at home but also for the good we can do together in the world as a global Britain, a force for good, helping to build a better future for everyone.
So as we look to the future and we face that great national moment together, I hope you will continue to play your part in the great national effort to building a fairer and more united Britain.
This united kingdom and the values at its heart are one of the greatest forces for good in the world today and when we work together and set our sights on a task we really are an unstoppable force.
Updated
Downing Street has issued more details about the counter-terrorism training exercise taking place later this year that will be led by Police Scotland. Theresa May spoke about it earlier on a visit to Police Scotland. (See 12.13pm.)
The training is part of the UK government’s national counter-terrorism exercise programme and brings together partners from policing and security, the armed forces, UK government departments and the devolved administrations to test responses to a major terrorist attack ...
Lessons learnt from these operations are fed back to the full range of operational partners, government departments and devolved administrations to further strengthen the UK’s response to a terrorist attack on UK soil.
Only second in size to the Metropolitan Police Service, Police Scotland works closely with other forces across the UK and has an important role to play in the development of UK-wide policing practices ...
The training exercise, which will take place in October, will also involve areas in the north of England.
Cross-agency counter-terrorism responses take place regularly, with exercises ranging from low capability testing to full scale national operations, and this latest event is part of a routine run.
And here is more detail about Ukip’s six tests for Brexit.
I have not seen a text of Paul Nuttall’s speech, but I’m told it was basically a detailed explanation of the six tests.
Here is the Conservative MEP Daniel Hannan, leading leave campaigner, responding to Sir Keir Starmer’s speech.
Labour now wants a Brexit that changes nothing at all. Two consequences.
— Daniel Hannan (@DanielJHannan) March 27, 2017
1. It encourages Brussels to be hardline.
2. It loses more votes.
May did not take questions after the speech.
May says she will never allow UK to become 'looser and weaker'
In her speech May also said that she would never allow the UK to become “looser or weaker”.
Because I believe when we work together, there is no limit to what we can do.
A more united nation means working actively to bring people and communities together by promoting policies which support integration and social cohesion.
In Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland that means fully respecting, and indeed strengthening, the devolution settlements. But never allowing our Union to become looser and weaker, or our people to drift apart.
May says UK can be 'an unstoppable force' when all four nations work together
May says aid spending shows how the nations of the UK can be “an unstoppable force” when they act together.
UK Aid is a badge of hope for so many around the world. It appears on the side of buildings, school books, medical supplies and food parcels in some of the toughest environments and most hard-to-reach countries on the planet.
And it says this: that when this great union of nations – England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland – sets its mind on something and works together with determination, we are an unstoppable force.
Theresa May's speech in Scotland
Theresa May is giving her speech to Department for International Development staff at their office in East Kilbride now.
The work you do here – in conjunction with your colleagues at the Department for International Development in London – says something important about Britain.
It says that we are a kind and generous country. It says that we are a big country that will never let down – or turn our back on – those in need. And it says that we are a country that does – and will always – meet our commitments to the world – and particularly to those who so desperately need our support.
And that is important to remember.
For we stand on the threshold of a significant moment for Britain as we begin the negotiations that will lead us towards a new partnership with Europe.
And I want to make it absolutely clear as we move through this process that this is not – in any sense – the moment that Britain steps back from the world. Indeed, we are going to take this opportunity to forge a more Global Britain. The closest friend and ally with Europe, but also a country that looks beyond Europe to build relationships with old friends and new allies alike.
- May says aid spending shows UK is “a kind and generous country”.
Updated
The Lib Dem MP Alistair Carmichael has responded to Sir Keir Starmer’s speech, claiming Labour has already failed the “real tests” on Brexit. Carmichael said:
Labour has consistently failed to oppose this government’s reckless plans, choosing instead to give Theresa May a blank cheque to pursue a hard and divisive Brexit.
They have waved the white flag on membership of the single market yet are now demanding we keep the exact same benefits. The hypocrisy is astounding.
Even now, Keir Starmer is admitting Labour may at most abstain on the final Brexit deal even if the government fails to meet the tests he has set. The public will see through his weasel words.
The Liberal Democrats are the real opposition to the Conservative Brexit government and the only party fighting for a Britain that is open, tolerant and united.
Number 10 lobby briefing - Summary
Here are the main points from the Number 10 lobby briefing.
- The prime minister’s spokesman appeared to back away from David Davis’s claim that Britain would be able to obtain a Brexit deal offering the “exact same benefits” as single market and customs union membership. Sir Keir Starmer highlighted this in his speech this morning. (See 10.53am.) Asked if the prime minister agreed, her spokesman said that Theresa May said in her Lancaster House speech that she wanted to the UK to obtain “the greatest possible access to the single market, on a fully reciprocal basis, through a comprehensive free trade agreement”. When it was pointed out that this was not what Davis had promised, the spokesman claimed: “I don’t think there is much difference between the two.”
- The spokesman refused to give further details of what action it was demanding from social media companies in relation to encryption and the posting of extremist material online. But he said that they had “fabulous technical expertise” and could do more. And he referred reporters to what Amber Rudd, the home secretary, said on these topics in her interviews yesterday.
- The spokesman said that May would be seeking to stress the areas where the UK government and the Scottish government agree over Brexit when she meets Nicola Sturgeon in Scotland this afternoon. May would also tell the first minister that, when some powers are repatriated to the UK after Brexit, some of those could be given to the devolved administrations.
- The spokesman confirmed that the clauses in the “great repeal bill” giving ministers Henry VIII powers (powers to change primary legislation by secondary legislation) would be time-limited. The government says ministers will need these powers when they have to rewrite vast amounts of UK law to make allowance for Brexit. The spokesman also confirmed that the Scottish parliament will get these powers, because some Scottish laws will have to be redrafted too.
- The spokesman refused to deny a story in today’s Financial Times (subscription) saying the government expects Britain to remain under the remit of some EU agencies after Brexit. He dismissed this as one of “lots of speculative stories”. When the UK left the EU, it would take back control of its own laws, he said. The FT story starts:
Theresa May is looking to keep Britain under the remit of some EU agencies after Brexit, in an admission that the UK does not have the time or expertise to replace European bodies with a new British regulatory regime within two years.
As the prime minister prepares to officially fire the starting gun on Brexit talks on Wednesday, officials close to the negotiations say that the UK would have little choice but to take part in some EU agencies after 2019, the scheduled date for Britain’s departure from the bloc, despite pressure from some Brexiters for a clean break.
“We simply don’t have the expertise in some areas and wouldn’t have the time to start up new agencies from scratch,” said one.
They argue that the continued participation in EU agencies would at the very least be required for a transition period, increasing the pressure on Mrs May to secure a negotiated deal.
Updated
Theresa May has been meeting officers from Police Scotland. As the Press Association reports, she told them she wanted police forces from around the country to work together to tackle terrorism. Police Scotland is due to take the lead in a counter-terrorism exercise later this year.
May said:
Obviously our thoughts are still with the family and friends of those who were killed in the attack that took place in London last week.
Of course as we look to dealing with terrorism we need a multi-faceted approach.
Police Scotland is the second biggest force in the UK, with huge capabilities and capacity, and working with other police forces across the UK to help to keep us safe.
Thank-you for all that you and your officers do to help keep us safe and secure.
Obviously as we look to the future we want to make sure, ensure that we are getting that cross-fertilisation across police forces.
And on the counter-terrorism exercise later this year, May said:
It is an important example in showing how forces can work together in this very important area, because it is essential that we use all our capacity but also that we have that cross-fertilisation and experience and expertise between forces.
Updated
I’m just back from the Number 10 lobby briefing. I will post a summary soon, but it was a relatively unilluminating session.
In the meantime, here is the Conservative party’s official response to Sir Keir Starmer’s speech (see 10.53am), in the form of a comment from the Tory MP Maria Caulfield.
Labour has no plan for Brexit and no plan for Britain.
They can’t even agree on whether they want to control immigration, and have today failed to make ending uncontrolled free movement one of their tests for supporting a deal with the EU.
It is clear that Labour do not want the UK to control its own borders and are out of touch with the values of ordinary working people.
Ukip's six tests for Brexit
And here are Ukip leader Paul Nuttall’s six tests for Brexit.
- Parliament must resume its supremacy of law-making with no impediments, qualifications or restrictions on its future actions agreed in any leaving deal.
- Britain must resume full control of its immigration and asylum policies and border controls.
- Leaving the EU must involve restoring to the UK full maritime sovereignty.
- The UK must retake its seat on the World Trade Organisation and resume its sovereign right to sign trade agreements with other countries.
- There must be no final settlement payment to the EU, and no ongoing payments to the EU budget after Brexit.
-
Brexit must be done and dusted before the end of 2019.
I will post more from the speech when I’ve read the text.
I’m now off to the Number 10 lobby briefing. I will post again after 11.30am.
Keir Starmer's Brexit speech - Summary and analysis
In a debate in the Commons in December Sir Keir Starmer, the shadow Brexit secretary, set out five conditions that Labour would demand from the government’s Brexit plan. At that point Downing Street had only just agreed to publish a “plan” and the white paper was still about six weeks away. Starmer said that if the government did not accept the five conditions, Labour would seek to impose them on the government by amending the article 50 bill as it went through parliament.
By my count, the government’s white paper only met two of Starmer’s five conditions, and that assumes a rather generous interpretation of ‘enough detail to end uncertainty’ and ‘enough detail to allow parliamentary scrutiny’ (conditions one and two). The other three (‘enough detail to allow the OBR to make forecasts’, ‘meeting the concerns of devolved bodies’ and ‘able to secure consensus support) were not met. Labour did try to amend the bill as it went through the Commons, but it backed the bill anyway at third reading after its amendments failed, leading to claims that it had not tried very hard to get its way.
So what is the value of Starmer’s latest shopping list of conditions? On past form, there is little chance of them all being met. But that is probably not the point. What the speech does do is a) give Labour a position behind which it can unite, b) set up a position from which Labour will be able to criticise the government during the Brexit talks (but without being open to the charge of being fully anti-Brexit) and c) provide a pretext for Labour being able to vote against the final Brexit deal.
Here are the key points.
- Starmer said Labour require the Brexit deal to provide the “exact same benefits” as membership of the single market and customs union currently does. This was the most important of his six conditions. Here they are in full.
1. Does it ensure a strong and collaborative future relationship with the EU?
2. Does it deliver the “exact same benefits” as we currently have as members of the Single Market and Customs Union?
3. Does it ensure the fair management of migration in the interests of the economy and communities?
4. Does it defend rights and protections and prevent a race to the bottom?
5. Does it protect national security and our capacity to tackle cross-border crime?
6. Does it deliver for all regions and nations of the UK?
Explaining why he was using the phrase “exact same benefits”, Starmer said:
This is of course, the clear commitment that David Davis has given in the House of Commons; to deliver: “.. a comprehensive free trade agreement and a comprehensive customs agreement that will deliver the exact same benefits as we [currently] have”.
The “exact same benefits” is an exacting standard.
But it is one the government has made.
And it is one I will hold them to.
Failure to deliver this deal will lie squarely at the government’s door.
A trade deal that provided the “exact same benefits” as single market membership, while keeping Britain out of the free movement regime (Starmer’s condition 3) is very similar to the Boris Johnson ‘having your cake and eat it’ negotiating aim. It is probably unlikely to be achieved.
- He said that, if the final Brexit deal did not pass these six tests, Labour would not support it in the Commons.
- He claimed that if Labour had voted against article 50 in parliament, it would have “let the government off the hook”. He said:
While Labour did not support leaving the European Union we have accepted that choice was made and that it will now be delivered.
That is why we voted in parliament for article 50 to be triggered.
I believe to have done otherwise would have diverted the debate and let the government off the hook by allowing it to continually focus on the outcome of the vote rather than the proper interpretation of the mandate.
For an alternative view, read this New European article by the former Labour home secretary Charles Clarke. Clarke thinks Labour should have voted against the article 50 bill at third reading after its amendments failed.
- Starmer said that he thought the Brexit vote was a vote not just against the EU, but a vote for fundamental change.
The referendum vote on June 23 was, in my view, a vote on the state of the nation. And it was years in the making.
Yes, there were concerns about the functioning of the EU, its remoteness and the slow pace of reform.
But there was also a desire felt by people in many parts of the country that politics and the economy no longer worked for them or their communities.
The Brexiteers offered false hope that by voting to leave the EU all that would change.
But the truth is that Brexit cannot tackle stagnant wages, resolve a chronic skills gap, reduce unequal growth across the UK or improve underfunded public services.
Brexit cannot mend public trust in politics or build more cohesive communities.
And it cannot provide a place for Britain in a more complex and chaotic global order.
This is interesting because it is similar to Theresa May’s analysis of the Brexit vote (but not Philip Hammond’s - as he makes clear towards the end of this Economist interview.) But Starmer is much more sceptical than May about the ability of Brexit to deliver the fundamental change people want.
Photograph: Andy Rain/EPA
Labour’s Sir Keir Starmer and Ukip’s Paul Nuttall are both giving speeches setting out their tests for a successful Brexit. They have both chosen to identify six.
The Sun’s Harry Cole suspects there will be little overlap between the two speeches.
Both Sir Keir Starmer and Paul Nuttall are outlining their own "six Brexit tests" today. Not expecting much from the Venn diagram. pic.twitter.com/WX4bZslQf7
— Harry Cole (@MrHarryCole) March 27, 2017
I’m just reading the Starmer speech now, and I will post a summary soon.
EU's chief Brexit negotiator warns of 'distinct possibility' UK will leave with no deal
This is the week that will see Theresa May triggering article 50, starting the purportedly irreversible process that will see Britain sliding down the slipway and leaving the EU after two years. Today May is in Scotland, giving a speech touching on this and holding what promises to be a very awkward meeting with Scotland’s first minister Nicola Sturgeon, who has emerged her most threatening UK opponent over Brexit. Two other opposition forces, Labour and Ukip, are also setting out their conditions for Brexit.
Across the channel the main obstacle to UK Brexit success may turn out to be Michel Barnier, the European commission’s lead negotiator on this issue. He has written an article for today’s Financial Times (paywall) politely raising threats and conditions and it is well worth reading. Here are the main points.
- Barnier says there is a “distinct possibility” that the UK and the EU will fail to strike a deal. That would have “severe consequences”, he says.
It goes without saying that a no-deal scenario, while a distinct possibility, would have severe consequences for our people and our economies. It would undoubtedly leave the UK worse off.
Severe disruption to air transport and long queues at the Channel port of Dover are just some of the many examples of the negative consequences of failing to reach a deal. Others include the disruption of supply chains, including the suspension of the delivery of nuclear material to the UK.
- He says the UK will have to reach an early agreement about paying money an exit fee to the EU as it leaves for the talks to succeed. He does not set out how much he expects the UK to pay, although it has been repeatedly reported that it will demand about €60bn (£50bn). He says:
Beneficiaries of programmes financed by the European budget will need to know if they can continue relying on our support. There is no price to pay to leave the EU but we must settle our accounts. The 27 member states will honour their commitments and we expect the UK to do the same — because it is the mutually responsible way to act.
Barnier cites this as one of three issues that need to be addressed early in the negotiations. The other two are guaranteeing the rights of EU nationals in the UK and Britons living in other EU states, and not undermining peace in Northern Ireland. He goes on:
If we cannot resolve these three significant uncertainties at an early stage, we run the risk of failure. Putting things in the right order maximises the chances of reaching an agreement.
- He reaffirms his desire to negotiate the terms of the UK’s exit from the EU before negotiating a future trade deal. The British government wants to negotiate both in parallel. But Barnier says:
This means agreeing on the orderly withdrawal of the UK before negotiating any future trade deal. The sooner we agree on these principles, the more time we will have to discuss our future partnership.
- He says the EU will be “fair yet firm” in the talks in defending the interests of its 27 members states.
Here is the agenda for the day.
8.30am: Sir Keir Starmer, the shadow Brexit secretary, gives a speech setting out the six conditions Labour will demand for it to support the final Brexit deal.
11am: Number 10 lobby briefing.
11am: Paul Nuttall, the Ukip leader, gives a speech setting out his six conditions for Brexit.
2.30pm: Damian Green, the work and pensions secretary, takes questions in the Commons.
And May will be visiting Scotland. She will give a speech to staff at the Department for International Development office in East Kilbride, as well as meeting Police Scotland, before holding talks with the Scottish first minister, Nicola Sturgeon.
As usual, I will be covering breaking political news as it happens, as well as bringing you the best reaction, comment and analysis from the web. I plan to post a summary at lunchtime and another in the afternoon.
You can read all today’s Guardian politics stories here.
If you want to follow me or contact me on Twitter, I’m on @AndrewSparrow.
I try to monitor the comments BTL but normally I find it impossible to read them all. If you have a direct question, do include “Andrew” in it somewhere and I’m more likely to find it. I do try to answer direct questions, although sometimes I miss them or don’t have time. Alternatively you could post a question to me on Twitter.
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