David Cameron’s chief election strategist – who masterminded the Conservative’s 2015 victory – has warned that the outcome of the EU referendum remains “in the balance”, with many voters still likely to change their mind.
Lynton Crosby has urged campaigners on both sides of the debate to ignore the topline numbers and instead consider the underlying factors that will influence the result, such as turnout and the fears people have about each outcome.
“The key framework of this campaign is risk. While much has been made of ‘Project Fear’, the reality is that voters see risk on both sides,” writes Crosby in the Telegraph. “The risk of leaving is the damage that could be caused to the UK economy. The risk of staying is the uncontrolled immigration that could result.”
His research finds that nearly a third (28%) of remain voters who could change their mind are worried about the impact on immigration. While a similar number (30%) of voters who are undecided are hesitant about voting to leave because of the damage to the UK economy.
Those who advocate Brexit are significantly more likely to vote, according to Crosby’s figures, but could be deterred if they think there is little chance of victory. The risk on the other side of the debate is complacency, he said, because more than three-quarters of remain voters expect the country to stay in.
He adds: “That includes nearly a quarter who are unlikely to vote but still expect the UK to vote to stay. These are currently the key voters for the remain campaign. It is obvious they have a preference for the UK to remain in the EU, but the outcome of the referendum is not currently important enough to them to motivate them to show up. This demonstrates the consequence of the outcome lacking personal relevance to them.”
Crosby’s overriding conclusion is that the complex factors make the race too close to call. He said the mistake that commentators had made in the 2015 general election was to try to predict the outcome on topline numbers and warned against making the same mistake again.
He says his company, The Crosby Textor Group, used polls when running campaigns as it did in the general election. But he adds: “We do not use polls to predict the outcome of an election or referendum.”
